August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Many of us N of the City are getting dry Jason and Central Texas certainly needs a good drink of water across the Highland Lakes. That said the trough and upper level energy to our W is digging nicely this morning and I believe that is the 'wild card' in regards how tomorrow into Saturday unfolds as well as all that mess S of us just N of the Yucatan.

[davidiowx]

So the trough coming down will drag AL98 and the moisture in the Gulf right up to our coast line. I guess it is safe to assume flood watches will need to be issued for tonight-Saturday?

[djmike]

I know all too well how you feel Jasons! Here in the Beaumont area, Its been a good 50-60% all this past week every day. Back door front blew in Monday, rains fizzled out before arriving. Tuesday 60% from onshore flow from the L in the gulf. Nothing. All rains fizzled out when it saw land. It was sunny and Hot all day. Wednesday, 60% chance of tropical moisture. Nothing! Sunny and hot! Today, I feel like it a broken record and I am not holding my breath. 60% again for today. Friday, trough is SUPPOSED to increase this tropical moisture and its supposed to dump buckets of rain for us. Again, not holding my breath. So far today, like all the rest, sunny and dry. Our 5 day graphics here in Beaumont could have shown sunny, hot and 0% of rain Sun, Mon, Tues and Wed. THAT would have been more realistic then posting 60% all week and it be the total opposite.

[BlueJay]

We are dry here too gang! Hang tight. There's always tomorrow...

[jasons2k]

Yeah, maybe someday "tomorrow" will get here. We need it bad - the trees are stressed and some are dying off.

If we did not have that 5-inch soaking back in May, this summer would have killed a lot more than it did.

[rgweathergeek]

The rain at least touched the Beltway on the southeast side before fizzling out, so at least it is making it a bit further inland this morning. Also Jeff's update this morning mentioned SH 105 which is a bit more inland progression. Here's hoping we all get a badly needed drink. We have been very lucky it hasn't been normally hot this summer otherwise we would be in a much more dire situation rain wise.

[Kludge]

Rant over... I hope I am wrong.....have a good day

I share your "pain", Jason... well stated... I thought it was just me

Let's just hope the Midwest trough finally sucks all the gulf moisture up this way.

[tireman4]

Hummm....

[jasons2k]

With our luck, we'll get the dry slot to the SW.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TXC039-167-281545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0095.140828T1448Z-140828T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
948 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 945 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR HAS INDICATED TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN... AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN LUIS PASS.

[jasons2k]

Nobody seems to be saying this, so I'll be the brave soul:

I don't think it's a given this system makes landfall today/tonight in South Texas before the trough lifts it up. It seems to be stalled/drifting. That could really change things up.

[davidiowx]

It appears to be right on the coastline to me. It sure is taking a lot longer than anticipated though and the trough is incoming fast.

[Andrew]

The reason we didn't get much rain yesterday was because of the development of the system. A week ago models were not predicting the development that ended up becoming a reality. This was supposed to be an open wave/ trough axis tracking West into parts of se and central Texas. With more organization and a further (and slower) South track the broad low brought more dry air at the lower levels to much of SE Texas . It was always suggested there would be a large gradient. Unfortunately for yesterday due to the NE winds and dry air most moisture stayed on the coast or just off of it. Now things are slowly changing as surface winds are beginning to return from the south and we see good 850mb moisture transport. There is another piece of energy that is currently over the Yucatan that should make its way here over the next couple of days. This should be enough to spark storms over much of the area. Hopefully we all get some much needed rain because I understand that yards are dry, but luckily places on the coast and southwest of se Texas have receive some already. They needed it a lot more than we did.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TXC167-281730-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0096.140828T1526Z-140828T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GALVESTON TX-
1026 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1025 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED HEAVY RAIN IN THE CITY OF
GALVESTON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. UP
TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...GALVESTON
PIER 21...JAMAICA BEACH...MOODY GARDENS...OFFATTS BAYOU...PELICAN
ISLAND...THE STRAND...GALVESTON STATE PARK...SCHLITTERBAHN AND
SCHOLES FIELD.

[srainhoutx]

For what its worth the 12Z GFS brings that mess N of the Yucatan NNW and develops a 850 vort max that pushes inland between Matagorda and Galveston. It also looks like a good surge of deep tropical moisture surges into the Western Gulf with a tropical wave nearing the Yucatan in the NW Caribbean. Further E in the Caribbean SSW of Greater Antilles, another sheared tropical wave is moving W and pressures are beginning to fall across the Western Caribbean.

[davidiowx]

Now that is interesting.

[Rip76]

Um, yes... this is interesting.

[jasons2k]

ditto. that is very interesting indeed. conditions will be favorable for development too.

In the short-term, that outflow temporarily stabilized things over the metro area. Everything is still either along the coast, or now well inland ahead of the outflow. We are stuck in the middle again with nothing.

[jasons2k]

Don't look at the HRRR precip maps for the rest of the day....it's depressing

[kayci]

SO envious of Galveston right now....