FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

Srain, any idea if, and when, these SSW effects will start showing up in the operational models?
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

Could be in for a repeat of this very same set up next weekend. MOS and other guidance may be way too warm. Anybody else LOVING this winter?
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Just got home from running errands for a few hours. My God, it is freakin' COLD out there. The wind just stings when it hits you. It hurts! Makes your eyes water. It is just plain awful and miserable!! I can't understand how anyone could possibly enjoy this crap. Time to light a fire, thaw out, and make a big pot of chicken and dumplings!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

harp wrote:Srain, any idea if, and when, these SSW effects will start showing up in the operational models?
I wouldn't fully trust any model beyond 3 to 5 days...or 6 hours for that matter since no model picked up what's happening right now with a convective band extending from near San Antonio to Texarkana.

Image

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 5271
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Rain in Humble. Was not expecting that. Humm
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote:Could be in for a repeat of this very same set up next weekend. MOS and other guidance may be way too warm. Anybody else LOVING this winter?
The Upper Air pattern via the GEFS Super Ensembles certainly suggest the possibility. Unfortunately for our neighbors further East in Louisiana, that SE Ridge may come into play leaving them warmer and continued wet which is good for the drought conditions in the SE United States.
Attachments
02112018 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

Yep, that SE ridge is keeping the cold air from getting to us over here.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:
harp wrote:Srain, any idea if, and when, these SSW effects will start showing up in the operational models?
I wouldn't fully trust any model beyond 3 to 5 days...or 6 hours for that matter since no model picked up what's happening right now with a convective band extending from near San Antonio to Texarkana.

Image

Image

The models, with the exception of the Canadian, have underestimated cold and precip since early December.

It's been a nearly NOWcasting type winter. :D
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote:Could be in for a repeat of this very same set up next weekend. MOS and other guidance may be way too warm. Anybody else LOVING this winter?
My utilities bill never reaches or exceeds $600 in the winter...so YES!


I don't mind the cool conditions. Layer up and walk or run!

Multiple winter precip events - so, definitely out of the ordinary especially for a La Nina winter.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Layer up and walk or run!
I did both. It still sucks. :evil:
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons wrote:
DoctorMu wrote: Layer up and walk or run!
I did both. It still sucks. :evil:

Still beats stinging, dripping wet in the eyes and heat index of 110°F! You won't catch me complaining in a Texas "winter."

For awhile, we lived near Chicago as a kid. We walked to school (about a mile) unless the high was going to be below 0°F or the snow plows could not clear the major streets - that took over 8 in of snow to do that. :lol:
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

As a Florida native, I’d rather my eyes sting a little from the sweat than the ice cold air. I don’t care for 110 heat indices either, but if I had to choose between the two, I’ll take the heat and go for a swim. I could never move up north.
User avatar
Heat Miser
Posts: 229
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:48 pm
Location: FM 528 @ I45 border of League City, Webster, Friendswood
Contact:

jasons wrote:As a Florida native, I’d rather my eyes sting a little from the sweat than the ice cold air. I don’t care for 110 heat indices either, but if I had to choose between the two, I’ll take the heat and go for a swim. I could never move up north.
Yup, I grew up here and prefer the heat over the cold. Somehow I get acclimated to the heat a whole lot easier than the cold. From the first real cold blast until the warmth of Spring I'm constantly uncomfortable and looking for ways to get warm. Enough of Winter already, bring on Spring.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 972
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

I can deal with cold days, but these cold cloudy rainy days that have frequented lately are getting very old and the sun needs to come out for more than 1 day.
mckinne63
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote:Could be in for a repeat of this very same set up next weekend. MOS and other guidance may be way too warm. Anybody else LOVING this winter?
Me!!!!! Grew up in Wisconsin, have been in Texas for 32 years now, but still think wearing shorts anytime between December thru February is just wrong. :lol:
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

TexasBreeze wrote:I can deal with cold days, but these cold cloudy rainy days that have frequented lately are getting very old and the sun needs to come out for more than 1 day.
We've been a little luckier, and have had more days when the sun has been out, even with the overrun we've had the last couple of weeks. I'll take upper 30s and sun over 50° and rain for sure. But you have to be careful what you wish for around here. We want reservoirs full for the summer, and enough wetted grass to keep temps down a little in the summer. The Woodlands and Houston see a lot more rain in the summer than we do. Not so many plants survive, and our water is full of alkaline-producing Na+... and thus watering is only the lesser of two evils...and expensive, especially for its corrosive properties!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

harp wrote:Yep, that SE ridge is keeping the cold air from getting to us over here.
A little concerned with the pattern change we might see a strong severe season and thus large, damaging hail and tornadoes come March and April.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 972
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Oh rain is good and thunderstorms too! Just not with upper 30's and 40's.
Usually cold coastal waters put a damper on severe weather season around here due to more low clouds and fog ahead of troughs and fronts.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Thunder sleet in the area this afternoon. I've heard rumbles, but no wintry precip to report IMBY.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

TexasBreeze wrote:Oh rain is good and thunderstorms too! Just not with upper 30's and 40's.
Usually cold coastal waters put a damper on severe weather season around here due to more low clouds and fog ahead of troughs and fronts.
I think the cap usually is an important shield that keeps severe season around Houston less severe. We'll see tornadoes every other or third year in the College Station area. From Hearne and increasingly north, every severe season is an adventure
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 57 guests