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Morning Gulf Low Update from Jeff:

Low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico now has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

A low pressure area NW of the Yucatan peninsula has had a slight increase in organization of shower and thunderstorm activity while moving slowly toward the west. Conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form as the surface low moves toward the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Building high pressure over much of the southern plains and TX will impart a general W to WSW steering motion over this system and it will likely approach the eastern coast of Mexico middle to late week. Additionally, the high pressure building over the region will keep the associated moisture mainly south of the upper TX coast. Winds will increase from the NE starting today and this combined with a larger swell will result in tides rising 1-2 feet along the upper TX coast over the next few days.

Although there are several other potential development areas in the tropics, none are threats to the NW Gulf at this time.

Bahamas radar shows the Abacos still getting really nasty bands

INVEST 93L has been designated for the Gulf disturbance.

AL, 93, 2019090212, , BEST, 0, 245N, 920W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

Dorian Update from Jeff:

Dorian battering the northern Bahamas with tremendous conditions.

Discussion:
Dorian made landfall on Abaco Island and Grand Bahama Island in the last 24 hours at category 5 intensity and has slowed to a crawl overnight…now moving west at 1mph. There have been few reports from Abaco Island since the eye passed over the island yesterday around noon…there was an unconfirmed report of winds of 144 g 173. Video this morning shows significant wind and storm surge flooding at Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. USAF missions show indicated the pressure has risen to 916mb, and it is likely Dorian peaked yesterday at 185mph and is now starting a slow weakening trend from both frictional effects of the islands and cool water upwelling due to the slow motion. Additionally, the aircraft and Bahamian radar has shown a double eyewall structure suggesting Dorian is in the process of an eyewall replacement which usually induces short term weakening. The result of the near 24 hours of category 5 conditions over portions of these islands will likely reveal catastrophic damage.

Track:
Dorian has nearly stalled as expected as the ridge of high pressure to the north has broken down and the steering flow collapsed. The hurricane is now awaiting the arrival of a short wave trough approaching the east coast to impart a southerly steering over the hurricane. Dorian is likely near the point where a turn toward the north will begin, but has yet to start that motion. The exact track of Dorian over the next 3 days will be close enough to the US SE coast that tropical storm and potentially hurricane conditions will be possible from the FL east coast northward toward the Carolinas. However, at this time the core of destructive winds with Dorian is expected to remain just offshore.

Intensity:
It is likely that Dorian has peaked in intensity and a slow weakening trend is expected as Dorian begins to move toward the north. Eyewall replacement cycles will likely dictate the intensity trends on a short term basis, but the overall trend will be slow weakening. With that said, Dorian will remain a powerful and extremely dangerous hurricane capable of catastrophic damage. Additionally, eyewall replacement cycles will likely broaden the wind field some and this will result in a larger hurricane tracking along the SE US coast with varying degree of impacts based on how close the storm moves to the coast.

Random little thunderstorm came through Rosharon earlier. Got a quick quarter inch so I'll take anything I can get.

uncle, uncle, waving the white flag already

unome wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:47 am uncle, uncle, waving the white flag already


Screenshot_2019-09-02 7-Day Forecast for Latitude 29 95°N and Longitude 95 66°W (Elev 135 ft) - Copy.png

I’ll second that. We drove out to Plantersville yesterday and everything is parched.

https://twitter.com/earthuncuttv/status ... 0212177920

Not sure how true this is, but Dorian could be intensifying again.

Well, it was over "land" and barely moving overnight. It did lose 30 mph worth of steam. What's crazy is it weakened that much and is still a Cat 5.

unome wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:47 am uncle, uncle, waving the white flag already


Screenshot_2019-09-02 7-Day Forecast for Latitude 29 95°N and Longitude 95 66°W (Elev 135 ft) - Copy.png

The worst.

ok, I have a contender for Stu Ostro's "hurricane monster" collection, 'cept I don't know him, so please feel free to pass it on - compliments of RAMMB's Meso 1 Slider today; Multi-Spectral "Split Window Difference"

Looks like the Grinch is trying to devour Florida...

We are waiting to hear from Josh. Scott747 probably will get some word before anyone. While we are disturbed over the terrible reports coming out for portions of Abaco Islands, Josh is warrior. I pray for all the folks across the Northern Bahamas! It's going to take everyone chipping in to help our neighbors as they helped us with Harvey.

I cannot imagine the death toll will be from Dorian.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:49 pm I cannot imagine the death toll will be from Dorian.

Cataclysmic. EF-4/5 like images + flooding. Sea and wind are leveling the north islands.

Meteorologically, the friction of the north islands may have relieved Florida of the risk of great destruction. Our aid to Bermuda must be as robust as Dorian's vice grip.

https://t.co/z4aVx6sfHm?amp=1

So Josh has been placed on a sort of missing/unaccounted for type of list. Personally I think someone got spooked after what appears to be some Twitter troll passing along unsubstantiated info.

Being on the list makes it look worse than what it could be. Josh always takes a few days to reconnect and with the long duration of the storm it is likely slowing the process down.

Hopefully as the storm finally moves away he will reconnect soon.

Hurricane Dorian has weakened to 120g150MPH but has been basically stationary for 24 hours over the NW Bahamas as a historic tragedy continues.

Invest 93L over the W GOM will become a TD or TS today but is still forecast to move into NE MX later this week as a TS with well needed rainfall for STX.

A few showers and thunderstorm will be possible along the coast the next few days from our W GOM tropical system before Summer heat returns for the end of the week and next weekend. From this morning’s Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.Summary...

- Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 7 is over the southwestern Gulf
and is forecast to come onshore over the northeastern Mexico
coast Wednesday.

- Outer bands of PTC 7 will initiate local Gulf water shower and
thunderstorm bands. Some of these bands will work their way
onshore through the day...showers with embedded storms moving
west across the coastal counties.

- Very hot start to September. Upper ridging will envelop the
state and, with the resident dry air mass, weekly daytime
temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s. Many locations
will achieve the 100 F degree mark over multiple days.

Hoping to hear some good news on Josh (@icyclone) soon. I don't know him personally like several of you, but do enjoy his work. What an unbelievable storm Dorian has turned out to be, and isn't close to being done yet.

Not looking forward to the lack of rain, and the bake continuing the rest of the week here. 0.3" over the last month here according to Harris County FWS gauge about a mile away. Constantly has been the parting of the sea when storms get here.

Hey Jason check your PM

The rumors about Josh on S2k are getting a little out of hand.

Again to my knowledge josh's family has not reported him missing and I've also seen no evidence that the rescue teams have went to the school where he was at and didn't make contact.

There has to be some verification with these claims.

No longer confident in the models and the trough will pick this up, as Dorian seems to have created its own safe space and refuses to budge. Moving NW at 1 mph, currently.