TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[Scott747]

11pm cone for naked swirl #2 that should have never been upgraded

Recon data usually seals the deal.

That wasn't a real recon flight

Enough of one to matter.

Sorry.

[biggerbyte]

So, this is still moving NW afterall. It will need to curve back wnw at some point to follow the current suggested path. If 96l can get out of the Alex grave and move more northerly, there is untapped warmer waters to be had. We will see an ugly system overnight as the action forms closer to the center. Watch for another blossoming event on Thursday as he goes TS. It would really have to stall, or slow way down to get Hurricane status. Who knows.. Maybe the powers to be will suck the life from 96l and push him inland. I can not stress enough the potential for heavy rainfall, post landfall, just as we saw from Alex, regardless of what happens from here out.

[Scott747]

Can't say I remember when the whole state was literally under a FF watch. Only area excluded is parts of W Texas.

[biggerbyte]

It is hard to believe the rain potential after looking at this system tonight. What a deformed ugly creature. That will change on Thursday.

[Scott747]

lol

Availa following Stewart.

Not looking very robust this morning...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
100 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 94.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW RAINBANS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

[biggerbyte]

I don't know about this one guys... Alex looks to be the winner so far for early season. We may have to wait on B.. I've seen stranger things, so until this is over land..... I hate to make a call with this still over water, but man is it a mess.

[Hardcoreweather]

[Hardcoreweather]

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm! In the meantime, look north and west of Cuba, then off the east coast.

Just a quick glance.

Ha ha... I beat you to it HCW.

[Hardcoreweather]

Recon is on the way

[Hardcoreweather]

Looks like recon was just picked up by radar


http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 3bdd1c.png

[srainhoutx]

Appears RECON has located a vortex about 120 miles SE of Brownsville. Perhaps a bit longer over water.

[Hardcoreweather]

If they upgrade this I am going to go postal j/k

[Hardcoreweather]

Radar and recon

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... efc504.png

[srainhoutx]

RECON is finding some 44 kt winds. May be enough for an upgrade.

[Hardcoreweather]

Even with no west winds being found ?

[srainhoutx]

No Upgrade at this time...

WTNT32 KNHC 081432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
BRINGING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO RIO SAN
FERNANDO

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL CROSS THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND
WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[srainhoutx]

Also of note is the center is placed near Port Isabel close to the Coast.

[Hardcoreweather]

[Hardcoreweather]

...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081453Z - 081630Z

IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BRIEF FUNNEL/TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL VICINITY. AN
UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY OCCUR WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

MODESTLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTH TX COAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
FAR SOUTH TX/RIO GRANDE VICINITY DURING THE DAY. CONSULT NHC
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE LATEST FORECASTS. A COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FUNNELS/TORNADOES INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS CURRENTLY MODEST PER
CRP/HGX/BRO WSR-88D VWP DATA...A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIRMASS/POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...COMBINED WITH A
FRICTIONALLY-ENHANCED NEAR-SHORE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE...WILL SUPPORT FUNNEL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
AS ADDITIONAL BANDS PIVOT ASHORE. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH
SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT
THINKING THAT FLOW AROUND 1 KM SHOULD AT LEAST REACH 30-35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO MODESTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SRH/LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALSO
DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TX.