April 2021

[jasons2k]

So is that it? Our grand finale Beaumont southward?
Was expecting a sprinkle or two or a rumble of thunder. All looks north and east. Is something supposed to develop later? A squall line or something?

Yes, there will be a final squall line later tonight with the front. This is all warm-sector pre-frontal action so far. More than we usually get...

[jasons2k]

Storm north of Conroe is getting a hook.

[DoctorMu]

So is that it? Our grand finale Beaumont southward?
Was expecting a sprinkle or two or a rumble of thunder. All looks north and east. Is something supposed to develop later? A squall line or something?

8-11 pm could be interesting. Especially toward the end of that that period (10 pm - 11:30 pm) for Beaumont.

[DoctorMu]

Storm north of Conroe is getting a hook.

New Wavery to Corrigan line being pounded.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
East central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 545 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cut And Shoot, or near Conroe, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Montgomery, southwestern San Jacinto and northwestern
Liberty Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

[jasons2k]

61mph wind gust reported in Conroe...

[jasons2k]

Cap is eroding further south...

[DoctorMu]

Cap is eroding further south...

Good news from Houston to Beaumont in the 8 pm - 11:30 pm line of storms

[jasons2k]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central Texas

* Effective this Friday evening from 705 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A few storms now forming near and south of San Antonio may
persist for a few more hours while spreading eastward. The storm
environment will support supercells capable of producing isolated
very large hail and damaging gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of San Antonio TX to 75 miles east of New Braunfels TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

[Cpv17]

Cap is eroding further south...

How exactly do you know this? Just curious.

[Cpv17]

This setup doesn't happen too often around here, this would kind of be considered a high shear low cape setup,usually its the other way around here locally .With most severe weather events being high cape but low shear events.

I don’t understand what any of this means? Could someone explain?

More like the SE rather than the great plains.

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/21Feb97SevereWx

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/we ... index.html


Cape = instability (energy) marker

Shear - difference in wind direction vertically upwards.

Combine high CAPE + shear = bad tornado outbreak. Shear would roll the cloud horizontally, and updraft from the storm would give the tube or funnel vertically.

Under a high shear, low CAPE environment thunderheads are not as high and with lower updrafts tornadoes occur but are weaker. Lower risk of large hail.


High Cape, low shear (Houston) would yield tall t-storms with high updraft.

High CAPE, high shear - College Station through Oklahoma and Kansas = potential for large hail, F3+ tornadoes.

Thank you to you and don for answering.

[jasons2k]

Cap is eroding further south...

How exactly do you know this? Just curious.

Cloud tops and other tools on Gr2 Analyst.

[don]

That supercell south of San Antonio looks potent, we'll have to watch and see if that cluster grows into a storm complex over the next couple of hours.

[jasons2k]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
A small part of the middle Texas coastal plain

* Effective this Friday evening from 740 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A supercell may persist for a few hours while moving a
little south of east, with an accompanying threat for isolated very
large hail and damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of
Beeville TX to 20 miles east northeast of Victoria TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

[jasons2k]

That supercell SE of San Antonio is a right-turner and looks very intense. Needs to be closely monitored.

[jasons2k]

Hmmm, the TWC app had shown 2.71” here, then it dropped...and then some more. Now it shows 0.00” additional and the blowup happening just east of here about 10:30.

[JDsGN]

This is starting to look like a bust here in cypress as far as the big portent line. What a disappointment.

[jasons2k]

Wow line to SW is collapsing. I’ve only gotten .15” from this thing - was supposed to get an inch - plus. I smell bust!

[txbear]

Don’t think we’re getting anything from that complex to the SW. Absolute bust on the rain, although a win for no hail or tornadoes.

Might be wrong, but HRRR seemed to do decent snuffing out the cap over my area on the west side. If that was the main inhibiting factor.

[Cromagnum]

Wow line to SW is collapsing. I’ve only gotten .15” from this thing - was supposed to get an inch - plus. I smell bust!

I haven't even gotten that. A few drops. Not even enough to wet my driveway.