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Re: April 2022
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:28 pm
by Cpv17
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:43 pmNot good:
Your normal average person doesn’t understand this. A lot of people I talk to think we don’t even need any rain.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:38 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:28 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:43 pmNot good:
Your normal average person doesn’t understand this. A lot of people I talk to think we don’t even need any rain.
Right. We certainly need rain. It is important to note that this year is still closer in similarity to 2021 than 2011. Note the exceptional drought category present in the eastern part of the state in 2011. Currently, only severe drought is the highest category. This was also true for at this time in 2021. However, if we do not see any significant rain for several more weeks, we will certainly be closer to 2011 similarities.
I am not going to be very concerned though until we are well into May without any rain. May has been known in the past to undo severe droughts in the past. I am not saying it will happen, but last year we were thinking a severe drought was on its way, and then May came.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:42 pm
by Cpv17
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:38 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:28 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:43 pmNot good:
Your normal average person doesn’t understand this. A lot of people I talk to think we don’t even need any rain.
Right. We certainly need rain. It is important to note that this year is still closer in similarity to 2021 than 2011. Note the exceptional drought category present in the eastern part of the state in 2011. Currently, only severe drought is the highest category. This was also true for at this time in 2021. However, if we do not see any significant rain for several more weeks, we will certainly be closer to 2011 similarities.
I am not going to be very concerned though until we are well into May without any rain. May has been known in the past to undo severe droughts in the past. I am not saying it will happen, but last year we were thinking a severe drought was on its way, and then May came.
It’s going to depend on the SOI imo.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:11 am
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:43 pmNot good:
Damn, that looks like we're revisiting the last 10 year cycle. Deja vu all over again.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:24 am
by Stratton20
Their is some room for optimism in terms of much needed rainfall for most of the state, models are indicating around the day 5-6 period a frontal passage with widespread moderate precipitation, fingers crossed
models are showing anywhere from .5 to as much as 3-4 inches right now , this would be badly needed
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:04 pm
by jasons2k
It’s already up to 87 here.
Weather Channel app shows 90% chance of rain on Monday.
Another Lucy tease?
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:21 pm
by Cpv17
It looks like most of the rain next week will be mainly north and west of southeast Texas. Hopefully it expands more to include us too.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:11 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:21 pm
It looks like most of the rain next week will be mainly north and west of southeast Texas. Hopefully it expands more to include us too.
It may not seem like good news, but if this happens, our chances of severe drought will likely decrease. What gets us every severe drought is when we are in drought along with areas to our north and west. If areas to our west start getting rain, it should eventually spread our way too.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:05 am
by djmike
Remember. 90% chance of rain can mean mist and sprinkles and be done unfortunately. I went a long time thinking the percentages meant heavy or light rain. Hopefully its come to fruition and we get a decent moderate to heavy rain.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:16 am
by Stratton20
Latest GFS run shows 2-4 inches of rain in my area next wednesday, fingers crossed!
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:38 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:15 pm
I hope we get a tropical system ( not a hurricane though) this summer, thay wouls greatly benefit us and the whole state, at this point it would take a tropical system to extinguish the drought
In 2011 & 2012, several members wanted a Tropical Cyclone in SE Texas just to destroy the drought. You know it's really bad if they wanted a TC to help get rid of the drought.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:51 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:15 pm
I hope we get a tropical system ( not a hurricane though) this summer, thay wouls greatly benefit us and the whole state, at this point it would take a tropical system to extinguish the drought
In 2011 & 2012, several members wanted a Tropical Cyclone in SE Texas just to destroy the drought. You know it's really bad if they wanted a TC to help get rid of the drought.
Well lately, our area has been impacted by a tropical cyclone every 1-2 years. Given the persistent state of ENSO, I just hope we can avoid hurricanes and only have weak tropical storms with lots of rain. Of course, sometimes our weather turns wet without impacts from TCs. I am just cheering on a wet May for now.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:56 pm
by captainbarbossa19
On a different note, the latest EURO has around 1 inch of rain for most of the area coming up next week. My area is in the dry slot, but it is too early to know where the heaviest amounts will occur. GFS is less optimistic and has heavier amounts to our north. I am pulling for the EURO solution.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 5:23 pm
by DoctorMu
Interesting. The Mesos are picking up some light seabreeze or streamer showers Saturday and/or Sunday. The rain chance on NOAA are up to 70% Monday with the front, but the precip. also looks light.
I sure would take a brief shower a day for the next 3 days.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 5:47 pm
by Katdaddy
Yep we could sure use some decent rains down here also but I am not hoping for tropical cyclone to help with the ongoing drought.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 6:20 pm
by Stratton20
Definitely hoping we dont get any hurricane visits this season, but I would take a weak depression/storm, these frontal passages with rains are not going to be enough to extinguish this drought, especially for west texas , unless we get some sort of pattern change in may, its not looking good folks
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2022 6:48 pm
by DoctorMu
SE 21 G34 This wind means business and it will likely be stronger tomorrow!
Tropical lemonade would be welcome this summer.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:16 am
by Iceresistance
I'm now expecting 2-4 inches of rainfall by Sunday.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:39 am
by jasons2k
NWS has lowered my rain chances back down to 50% Monday Night. TWC shows 80%. We really need it for sure.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:22 pm
by captainbarbossa19
jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:39 am
NWS has lowered my rain chances back down to 50% Monday Night. TWC shows 80%. We really need it for sure.
We sure do. My hydrangeas were starting to wilt yesterday due to the drought. Usually, I do not have to start watering them until summer. Ugh. Maybe May will do something more than April has so far.
models are showing anywhere from .5 to as much as 3-4 inches right now , this would be badly needed