Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

I’m continuing to see more support of the California firehose to turn off in about 2-3 weeks. Good sign.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are now looking much better after the 20th.

[Cpv17]

I’m seeing a good amount of support for some colder temps once we get past the 20th but mainly more so after the 25th.

[Stratton20]

Im also watching Siberia over the next several weeks as well, cold air is beginning to build again in that region, we just need all the pieces of the puzzle to come together just right, but our warm days are definitely becoming numbered now

[Cpv17]

The GEFS looks good past the 20th! The EPS has some improving to do but it’s not bad either.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 operational euro run looks decent as well, the flip is coming

[sswinney]

Im also watching Siberia over the next several weeks as well, cold air is beginning to build again in that region, we just need all the pieces of the puzzle to come together just right, but our warm days are definitely becoming numbered now

There are -80F temps in Siberia

[sambucol]

That’s colder than it was in December with that cold system.

[Iceresistance]

Urgh, I hate it when the Ensemble models (and some OP models) are now trying to go for the SE Ridge, which turns it into the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge . . .

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance a really cold airmass like on that GFS run can overpower the SE ridge causing it to break down, fingers crossed that wasnt just a one time run

[Stratton20]

12z CMC gets close to showing a winter storm setup in se texas on valentines day fwiw

[sambucol]

12z CMC gets close to showing a winter storm setup in se texas on valentines day fwiw

YES!!! Hope that verifies!

[Stratton20]

sambucol we will see, we just started february and some folks are already throwing the towel in saying we are done with winter, I definitely dont believe that at all, I will say the CMC did a fantastic job with our texas ice storm a few days ago,
it was miles ahead of the GFS and Euro both which performed awfully during that event

[sambucol]

If I recall correctly, it was Valentines Day when the Feb 2021 event started.

[Stratton20]

sambucol almost! The main winter storm came through on presidents day but we did have some initial precipitation come through on valentines day, the CMC is pretty cold though, we will just have to see how this pattern evolves with multiple troughs digging down over the next 10-12 days

[sambucol]

Not here. The sleet started on 2/14/21 at my home. I was outside in it trying to finish preps. Even have photos! It definitely arrived 2/14/2021.

[Stratton20]

long range guidance is hinting at cold air beginning to build in our source region again before starting to get displaced south, this would be after the 15th/16th, but I think winter is definitely not over with us yet

[sambucol]

long range guidance is hinting at cold air beginning to build in our source region again before starting to get displaced south, this would be after the 15th/16th, but I think winter is definitely not over with us yet

Excellent!!!

[Stratton20]

Sambucol ensembles are looking better for cold, I personally think we will see a flip back to colder weather after the 15-16th or so

[Cpv17]

Well ok, the GFS looks a little interesting again. Wasn’t expecting that.