June 2024

[Cromagnum]

What year was it and which cyclone was it that a Hugh pressure system just completely "ate" the storm offshore? My old memory is getting bad.

[djmike]

Isnt it still supposed to be two systems though? First one high pressure pushes it in Mexico and second system more north towards texas?

[tireman4]

What year was it and which cyclone was it that a Hugh pressure system just completely "ate" the storm offshore? My old memory is getting bad.

Tropical Storm Don...2011...

As Don approached the Texas coast early on July 30, the thunderstorms rapidly diminished due to the combination of wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea surface temperatures just offshore. The winds decreased as the convection dissipated, and Don made landfall on Padre Island National Seashore as a tropical depression at 0230 UTC on July 30. About three and a half hours later, Don degenerated into a remnant low, and the circulation dissipated six hours after that.

[brazoriatx]

Why the doom and gloom? He'll nothing has even formed yet..it's a guess this far out..let it a coc form first

[don]

Widespread rains are on the menu next week regardless of what happens, the question is how much? Models have not been too consistent with this system for the last several days.The organization and track of this storm will have big implications on how much rain we receive. For example a less organized storm making landfall south into Mexico could still produce heavy rains here given the Gyre setup.While a stronger system making landfall that far south would lessen the rainfall potential up here as the system would better concentrate its moisture around the COC.We'll know more over the weekend.

[Stratton20]

The latest WPC update, they upped totals to 5-7+ for houston and places south

[Cpv17]

Widespread rains are on the menu next week regardless of what happens, the question is how much? Models have not been too consistent with this system for the last several days.The organization and track of this storm will have big implications on how much rain we receive. For example a less organized storm making landfall south into Mexico could still produce heavy rains here given the Gyre setup.While a stronger system making landfall that far south would lessen the rainfall potential up here as the system would better concentrate its moisture around the COC.We'll know more over the weekend.

Yep! It’ll be windshield wipers on the models till we get a COC.

[DoctorMu]

NAM is bringing the flume of GoM moisture in by Monday and Tuesday. There will be abundant chances of rain. When, where, and how much is to be seen.

[DoctorMu]

ICON is bringing it. We need another couple of days to have clarity with HRRR, NAM, other mesos but tropical gulf air is headed our way.



Your mileage may vary.

[Cpv17]

ICON is bringing it. We need another couple of days to have clarity with HRRR, NAM, other mesos but tropical gulf air is headed our way.



Your mileage may vary.

Need to shift that west towards the Hill Country.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro AIFS looks to be coming in around Baffin bay, still gives SE texas 7-8 inches though

[Stratton20]

18z ICON has a tropical storm approaching just north of corpus, but what catches my attention is that it briefly stalls the system before turning west

[DoctorMu]

I'd gladly take this rain action.

[Stratton20]

Oh boy now thats a serious rain event for se texas on the 00z GFS!

[don]

GFS keeps the system weaker in this run, thus allowing the northern piece of vorticity to become more dominate. Producing some very high totals locally.

prateptype_cat-imp.gom (1).png (185.94 KiB) Viewed 978 times

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (5).png (484.93 KiB) Viewed 958 times

[Cpv17]

GFS keeps the system weaker in this run, thus allowing the northern piece of vorticity to become more dominate. Producing some very high totals locally.



prateptype_cat-imp.gom (1).pngqpf_acc-imp.us_sc (4).png

Gross. Need to shift that west a couple hundred miles and spread it out. That area of southeast Texas has already had their fair share of rain.

[don]

Big shift north with the CMC. Massive windfield with the strongest winds aimed towards the middle and upper Texas coast. With rains displaced well to the north of the COC.

prateptype-imp.gom (1).png (216.77 KiB) Viewed 969 times

prateptype-imp.gom (2).png (217.46 KiB) Viewed 963 times

sfcwind_mslp.gom.png (498.15 KiB) Viewed 969 times

[Stratton20]

Wow! Thats probably the largest tropical storm force wind field ive ever seen on a model, thats nuts

[Cpv17]

Wow! Thats probably the largest tropical storm force wind field ive ever seen on a model, thats nuts

Like I said earlier, windshield wipers.

[Stratton20]

00z Euro joins the heavy rainfall party in se texas with widespread 4-8 inches and isolated 10+