July 2025

[tireman4]

121
FXUS64 KHGX 211753
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2025

- Mostly dry/hot pattern to continue through Thursday

- Isolated showers/thunderstorms may form in association with sea
breeze

- The heat risk will increase towards the middle of the week,
with most inland areas forecast to be in the upper 90s on
Thursday. Heat will be hazardous all week even if we technically
remain below advisory criteria.

- A late week surge of tropical moisture increases rain chances
beyond Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Daytime temperatures will be on the rise through Thursday as a
mid/upper level ridge meanders west from the Gulf through the
week. The high pressure, currently centered over the Gulf, will
strengthen as it becomes centered over the southeast CONUS and
encompasses SE Texas. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in
the mid to upper 90s (with the Metro flirting with the 100F mark
on Wednesday and Thursday). The combination of the heat and
humidity resulting from the position of the high pressure will
lead to heat indices in the triple digits during this time;
however, daytime mixing should prevent reaching Heat Advisory
criteria.

Nonetheless, it is important to keep in mind heat safety and
remember to drink plenty of fluids, take breaks in the shade/AC,
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, and remember that if the ground is too hot
for your hand it is too hot for your pets` paws!

WBGT temperatures are elevated during the early afternoon hours
Tuesday through Thursday (as a reminder WBGT takes into account
the combination of heat, humidity, sun angle, cloud cover, and
wind). For those of you planning to do strenuous outside activity,
the most hazardous heat is expected from around noon to about 4
PM.

Later in the week, an influx of tropical moisture is expected as a
low/mid level trough moves westward through the Gulf (similar to
AL93 last week). Rain chances will increase in response on Friday
and Saturday in response to this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings possible at CLL/UTS through
15Z before VFR conditions prevail areawide throughout the day.
Winds will be southerly throughout the morning/early afternoon
and becoming southeasterly in the mid to late afternoon behind the
sea breeze. Expect sustained winds to peak in the 10-15 kt range.
An isolated shower/storm or two will be possible again along the
sea breeze, but there is no mention of this in any TAF due to the
low confidence on exactly where it will develop. Winds trend
towards becoming light again going into tonight, and there is
potential for another round of MVFR ceilings early Tuesday morning
at the northern terminals (CLL/UTS).

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Mostly dry and hot conditions with light to occasionally moderate
onshore winds (5 to 15 knots) and 2-3 foot seas expected through
the middle of the week. Friday, a disturbance from the east is
expected to increase the chance of rain and thunderstorms through
Saturday. There is some potential for seas and winds to increase
somewhat as well. But confidence in the wind forecast is lower
than normal beyond Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 95 76 96 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Batiste (18Z TAFs completed by JM)
MARINE...Adams

[Pas_Bon]

I don't recommend going outside right now in SE Texas.

[Cpv17]

I don't recommend going outside right now in SE Texas.

96° here in Wharton and feels like 106°. It’s July in SETX.

[DoctorMu]

Mike's Weather Page has also jumped on the Retrograde Lemonade bandwagon, following the latest HGX NWS forecast. 50-60% chance of rain Friday and Saturday for Houston. Fingers crossed up here in CLL.

Rinse and repeat 93L:

[tireman4]

Outlook

[Pas_Bon]

Outlook

Gross

[davidiowx]

The Heat Is On

Glenn Frey - Beverley Hills Cop

[DoctorMu]

Our CLL forecast looks average for this time of year. Mid 90s and a chance of rain Friday and Saturday.

GFS is sleeping n the easterlies.

[Stratton20]

Very interesting august outlook issued today from the CPC , Looks like ridging predominately stays over the western- pacific NW US, might be trouble in the tropics if the ridge stays out west

[Pas_Bon]

Very interesting august outlook issued today from the CPC , Looks like ridging predominately stays over the western- pacific NW US, might be trouble in the tropics if the ridge stays out west

I love how the above-average precip forecast ends right at Sabine Pass. Gross.
Obviously, I know this isn’t precise, but still….Gross.

[Stratton20]

Pas_Bon yeah its super close, but when you see the heat ridge focused over the western US, thats a pretty good indication that the door is going to be wide open on the gulf coast from florida to texas for potential tropical trouble

[Pas_Bon]

Pas_Bon yeah its super close, but when you see the heat ridge focused over the western US, thats a pretty good indication that the door is going to be wide open on the gulf coast from florida to texas for potential tropical trouble

Time to erect the sign I made….

[sambucol]

Yes. That sign will work.

[tireman4]

004
FXUS64 KHGX 221046
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

- Hot conditions will prevail for the next several days, with most
inland areas forecast to be in the middle to upper 90s, and a
gradual upward drift in afternoon highs through Thursday.

- For most days, enough dry air works in from above to keep us
short of advisory-level heat index values, but it will be very
close to the threshold and those who are vulnerable to heat
stress and/or will be exerting themselves strenuously outdoors
will need to be proactive in staying ahead of potential heat
illness.

- A late week surge of tropical moisture increases rain chances
beyond Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Everyone grab your canine companions, it is their days of the
summer, and the weather this week will absolutely reflect it.
Ridging is in control through at least the first half of the week,
and that means we are looking at hot temperatures - above average
despite these being the highest average max temps of the year. I
wouldn`t be surprised if we do threaten some record highs here and
there (and some record high mins as well - indeed, those may be a
little more vulnerable).

On the flip side, there is a bit of nice news in this setup.
Because we have a strong subtropical ridge overhead, we`ve got
plenty of subsidence to suppress thunderstorms. And, perhaps even
better, it promotes deep afternoon boundary layers that can tap
into some drier air aloft, mixing out dewpoints fairly
effectively. It`s a bit of a tradeoff, as this results in
temperatures that are a little bit higher, but ultimately helps
tamp down heat index values by outweighing that with lower
dewpoints. I mean...it`s still humid, this is Southeast Texas,
after all. But it`s enough of a difference to keep heat index
values more in the 103-107 range, and juuuuust below the 108
threshold for a heat advisory.

That said...we are still very close to the advisory threshold, and
it is still hotter than even the typical hottest part of summer
around here. Even without an advisory, conditions could be
dangerous to those who are required to work strenuously out in
exposed conditions (see the high risk WBGT values) and/or are in a
group vulnerable to heat stress (exemplified by the moderate
impact HeatRisk values). While perhaps not unusually dangerous,
there are still plenty of folks who will need to keep heat stress
front of mind this week.

Things probably get a bit worse before they get better on Thursday
on the heat front. Another upper disturbance looks to scrape along
the northern Gulf coast, beginning to encroach on our area for the
end of the week. On Thursday, it may be near enough that the
column begins to moisten and erase what modest help we get from
afternoon mixing, but not enough to build enough clouds and/or
rain. This may be a situation where the worst heat conditions come
just before things tip over into a pattern change for the late
week, when this disturbance brings more clouds and increased
rain/storm chances for Friday into the weekend.

And...yes, never ever trust a trough around the Gulf in hurricane
season. We are definitely on that - and fortunately, model
guidance continues to be fairly strong into seeing something like
a repeat of what occurred last week: an increase in moisture and
rain potential, but that`s about it. It`s probably still worth it
to check in on us and the NHC occasionally through the week to
ensure nothing changes on that front. We may even see an area
highlighted with low chances for development at some point during
the week (would be very happy to not see that, though!) At this
point, from the data available to me I have little concern about
any sort of tropical cyclone, but I`m not yet confident enough to
guarantee a complete lack of tropical development either.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Isolated spots of MVFR conditions have developed across the north
this morning bringing low CIGs around 2000ft and patchy fog to CLL
and CXO. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise with VFR
conditions returning area-wide through the remainder of the day.
South to southeasterly winds around 8-12kt will develop through
the day as well. Can`t out rule some MVFR conditions returning to
CLL tonight as the winds become calm, but again will be short-
lived with clearing skies through Wednesday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

A relatively dry and hot pattern is forecast through the midweek,
with no more than an isolated early morning shower. Expect low
seas and light to occasionally moderate onshore winds to prevail.
Later in the week however, potential for rain and thunderstorms
will increase.

At the coast, the persistent yet not excessively strong onshore
flow will help push water levels above astronomical norms, but
should stay safely below 3 feet above MLLW. Similarly, there will
be a moderate risk for rip currents, but a higher threat does not
look apparent, short of a dramatic change of expectations in the
late week change in weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 81 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Matt Lanza

In brief: Invest 94L has bitten the dust in the Atlantic. A Gulf tropical disturbance shouldn't develop, and it will be only a modest rainmaker for the Gulf Coast. Flooding risks focus on the Duluth area today with additional heavy rain chances on the periphery of the heat wave heading into next week.

Invest 94L outta here
In the tropics, Invest 94L is out of time in the open Atlantic. It's been declassified, and the NHC has removed it from their outlook map this morning. It will soon run into a much too hostile environment for development, and at worst we're looking at some added rain showers in the Windward Islands today and tomorrow. With that, we'll close the book on Invest 94L. Thanks for playing.



Gulf tropical disturbance a modest rainmaker
The odds of a Gulf tropical disturbance becoming anything are so low right now that the National Hurricane Center isn't even tagging it on their daily tropical weather outlook. But we're focused on impacts, and while the impact from this disturbance won't be substantial, it will bring a fair bit of rain to the Gulf Coast and Florida.


Rainfall has been surprisingly average along the Gulf Coast over the last 30 days. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
While Louisiana has certainly seen a good bit of rain in the last week or so, and isolated pockets of Florida have been hit good, the majority of the region between Corpus Christi and Pensacola have been fairly blah over the last 30 days with nothing worse than isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall. Rain totals increase some if you go back about 60 days, but still. Although there's a good chance of some decent rain along the entirety of the Gulf Coast as the resurrected disturbance circles back in, there's also a fair bit of breathing room to accommodate that rainfall in most cases. This should keep flooding concerns not at zero levels but relatively low.


Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches over the next 5 days across the Gulf Coast should be manageable, with nothing worse than some localized flooding concerns. (Pivotal Weather)
The disturbance should barge into Texas at the end of the week, cooling down the Houston area and bringing widespread rain chances to East Texas and possibly some inland locales. Some of this moisture may survive all the way across Texas and get lumped in with the monsoon pattern in the Southwest, perhaps adding a small dose of extra precip for places like New Mexico next week.

Upcoming Central U.S. flooding risks and the "ring of fire"
Even as dry weather is expected to take firm hold in the Southern Plains next week, Kansas got smacked with heavy rainfall yesterday, as rainfall estimates hit 3 to 7 inches or more from north of Hays to west of Salina.


24-hour rainfall estimates in central Kansas with pockets of 3 to 7 inches or even more from north of Hays to near Salina. (NOAA MRMS)
As ridging builds into the Southern Plains next week, look for the axis of some of these soaking rain events to shift northward, more into Nebraska or the Dakotas, particularly South Dakota. We'll have to watch adjacent locations like Iowa and northern Missouri as well for flooding, as they have seen some substantial rains in the last few weeks.


Rainfall for days 8 to 14 looks above normal from Missouri and Iowa back into Nebraska and the Dakotas. (Tropical Tidbits)
We may actually get an initial preview of this perhaps in Minnesota today and tomorrow, where weather models are pretty bullish on rain totals. Flood watches have been hoisted to include the Duluth area.


(NWS Duluth)
Storms will come in a couple waves between today and tomorrow up there. The flood story is not quite ready to go away.

Basically, the setup for the heat wave continuing into next week will help initiate the storm chances on the periphery. Thunderstorms will tend to follow the northern fringe of the ridge, what we often refer to as a "ring of fire" in meteorology. Look for this to be the case next week as the ridge blossoms in the Plains.


The ring of fire, as we often call it will be in play next week in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. (Tropical Tidbits)
Thus, we could be talking both about some severe weather and a flooding risk in some of those areas.

[tireman4]

Outlook

[DoctorMu]

Pas_Bon yeah its super close, but when you see the heat ridge focused over the western US, thats a pretty good indication that the door is going to be wide open on the gulf coast from florida to texas for potential tropical trouble

Time to erect the sign I made….

Any TS will move around the Bermuda High. Could mean the northern Gulf has a target on it.

[DoctorMu]

93L deja vu this weekend with the next tropical lemonade stand, although the moderate rainmaker won't have as much impact on LA. The NWS Houston precip. forecast is sticking to 60% on Friday and 50% on Saturday.

[DoctorMu]

93L deja vu this weekend with the next tropical lemonade stand, although the moderate rainmaker won't have as much impact on LA. The NWS Houston precip. forecast is sticking to 60% on Friday and 50% on Saturday.

I'll take this. EURO-AI:

[tireman4]

160
FXUS64 KHGX 221726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

- Continued hot with little chances of rain thru most of Thurs.
Heat index values may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria at
times.

- Chances of precipitation return to the forecast late Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

With surface and upper level ridging in the area, temperatures
will remain on the hot side and rain chances very low-nil the next
few days. Heat index/stress values may flirt with advisory criteria,
but suspect we might see just enough daytime dry air mixing
whereas we might be able to skirt out of having to push one out.
But regardless, heat safety protocols should be followed if
planning to work/play outdoors.

Late Thursday and Friday, we should see a mid-upper inverted
trof, and maybe a weak surface reflection, make its way into the
region from the east. This will bring a return to the soupy 2.4"
PW`s, increased cloudiness, slightly lower daytime temps, and
higher chances of rain across parts of the area into Saturday.

Late Saturday into early next week, a strengthening H5 ridge
takes shape over the Plains. Though heights will build locally,
we`ll still be in the easterlies on its southern periphery. And
with some residual 1.7-2.1" PW`s remaining in the vicinity,
suspect we`ll see a "typical" summertime diurnally driven precip
pattern with some isolated-scattered shra/tstms each day the
closer one gets to the coast. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Isolated spots of MVFR conditions have developed across the north
this morning bringing low CIGs around 2000ft and patchy fog to CLL
and CXO. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise with VFR
conditions returning area-wide through the remainder of the day.
South to southeasterly winds around 8-12kt will develop through
the day as well. Can`t out rule some MVFR conditions returning to
CLL tonight as the winds become calm, but again will be short-
lived with clearing skies through Wednesday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Light winds and low seas should prevail for the next several days.
Rain chances will be low into Thursday with high pressure in the
area. As weak low pressure moves toward the northwest Gulf coast
late Thursday, precipitation chances will increase continue as we
head into the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 97 76 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 80 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47