August 2022
I know it’s trash but the rain chances on TWC app are no better than the last 2,3,4,5 heck I lost count the number of “moisture surges” promising rain this summer, starting with El Busto the last week of June.
Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
The rich get richer...djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
50%~80% for Houston now thru Saturday according to NWS. So thats not too shabby for yall either.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:10 amThe rich get richer...djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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12z ICON now shows a weak tropical system after the passage of the weak front this weekend fwiw
Edit: The 12z NAM now shows possible tropical cyclogenisis as well
Regardless of any development this weekend is our best shot at rain, its either bust or feast, no in between!
Edit: The 12z NAM now shows possible tropical cyclogenisis as well
Regardless of any development this weekend is our best shot at rain, its either bust or feast, no in between!
Last edited by Stratton20 on Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
30-60% chance of rain here through Friday night. About as good as it gets around here in mid August.
Without a tropical system...
Without a tropical system...
Seems like a carbon copy of our earlier busticane.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:51 am 12z ICON now shows a weak tropical system after the passage of the weak front this weekend fwiw
Edit: The 12z NAM now shows possible tropical cyclogenisis as well
Regardless of any development this weekend is our best shot at rain, its either bust or feast, no in between!
Man i woke up this morning to 50% chance of rain today on my TWC ap and saw a quick twitter by KHOU and now I'm looking at my radar and seeing nothing.... and my chance has dropped to 15% for the day.
And just like that, Im having a hard time catching a break to mow LOLdjmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
The chance of rain will be approaching from the north, not the south, folks. I still expected the boundary to run out of steam when it hits College Station.
I say Houston annexes the Triangle and moves it all here.....we need to import their rain.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:10 amThe rich get richer...djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
The latest HRRR run literally donut holes Fort Bend County.. Almost hilarious as this point.. Nice band of rain for everyone but Ft Bend.
That’s the problem for me. The sea breeze is going to re-stabilize things before it gets here. I’ll believe it’s gonna rain IMBY when there’s something besides dust and pine needles in my rain gauge.
Umm hmm. Kicking the can.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms...convection...have struggled to develop this morning due to mid level dry air inhibiting deeper updrafts. Looks like best chance of thunderstorms will be with boundary due to pass from north to south across the area later this afternoon and evening.
Latest HRRR and model trends suggest we may see a fairly solid
line cross from N to S between about 21Z and 03Z. Based on this
carrying window of VCTS at TAF sites to highlight this feature...but expect will update to include a tempo group once line has been established and have increased confidence in timing and location. Might see such and update within next few hours.
Reilly
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12z Euro QPF over the next 10 days looks amazing for a good portion of SE Texas, widespread 2-5 inches!
TWC app is janky.
Rain chances today: 0%
Rain chances in hourly forecast: 90% at 9pm.
Whatever…
Rain chances today: 0%
Rain chances in hourly forecast: 90% at 9pm.
Whatever…
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:34 pm A Major pattern change is coming, the death ridge pattern is going bye bye i havent seen the outlooks thus good in forever it seems!
https://youtu.be/_nVk25ZvTkU
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