February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Andrew]

Euro is looking good and 6H faster!!!

[HouTXmetro]

Euro is looking good and 6H faster!!!

Do tell! does that mean the action would start around morning/noon if it verifies?

[Andrew]

If it starts early, does it end early or just stretch out longer ie more precip?

No this is the flow from the pacific/ gulf. The low is still on schedule and that is when the big stuff begins.

So this would be an appetizer? I'm lovin' this!

Thanks Andrew

More or less yes.

[Mr. T]

Euro is looking good and 6H faster!!!

Details my friend!

[Andrew]

Euro is looking good and 6H faster!!!

Do tell! does that mean the action would start around morning/noon if it verifies?

Ok well Euro shows about .31in so far (a tad less than 12z) but it starts it at 12 tomm or 6am tomm with .07in! If it is right tomm could be a mess.

[Mr. T]

Ok well Euro shows about .31in so far (a tad less than 12z) but it starts it at 12 tomm or 6am tomm with .07in! If it is right tomm could be a mess.

Not sure if it will start that early as I think the atmosphere will need some time to moisten, but that is interesting

[Andrew]

Ok well Euro shows about .31in so far (a tad less than 12z) but it starts it at 12 tomm or 6am tomm with .07in! If it is right tomm could be a mess.

Not sure if it will start that early as I think the atmosphere will need some time to moisten, but that is interesting

Ok technically .32in but yea if it starts that early that would be incredible.

[Baseballdude2915]

Here's one for some of the more knowledgeable members:

Since precip is trending to start during the 'warmest' part of the day tomorrow, would there be an issue regarding p-type? It might very well reach 35 tomorrow, would this hamper accumulations if the event onsets early? Does the event wrap up much sooner too? Looks to me this would be more preferable if precip started around 5 or 6pm tomorrow and lasted during the cold all night.

[HouTXmetro]

WV Loop showing heavy moisture moving in/developing from our southwest into the Houston area as we speak, could we be on the verge of winter precipitation beginning tonight?

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=6

[txsnowmaker]

I wonder if the atmosphere is already moistening/moistened given that we are at 34F right now?

[Mr. T]

Here's one for some of the more knowledgeable members:

Since precip is trending to start during the 'warmest' part of the day tomorrow, would there be an issue regarding p-type? It might very well reach 35 tomorrow, would this hamper accumulations if the event onsets early? Does the event wrap up much sooner too? Looks to me this would be more preferable if precip started around 5 or 6pm tomorrow and lasted during the cold all night.

I think it still looks like the heaviest precip will not reach us until sunset or thereafter... The Euro does show light precip very early, but the heavier stuff comes later it seems

[Andrew]

WV Loop showing heavy moisture moving in/developing from our southwest into the Houston area as we speak, could we be on the verge of winter precipitation beginning tonight?

Moisture is def ahead of time but we will prob need more interaction with the low to get that to happen. Euro says moisture will begin around 6am tomm.

[Mr. T]

From HGX aviation update:

1146 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011


.AVIATION...
SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE USING 0Z MODEL DATA. DID
ADJUST TIMES ON WINTRY MIX...SLOWED THE ONSET BY AN HOUR OR TWO
CLOSER TO 0Z FRIDAY. ATTM...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT COLUMN IS
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON WINDOW WHERE SITES CLOSER TO COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A
SLEET MIX...BUT TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF -FZRA. WHAT LITTLE MID-LEVEL
WARM NOSE DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE EVENT APPEARS TO QUICKLY WET BULB
AND PRODUCE ALL SNOW AROUND SUNSET. EARLY EVENING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...
MORE MODERATE SNOW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z PER 4KM WRF...UNDER LOW MVFR
DECKS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. 31

More moderate snow after midnight tomorrow

[HouTXmetro]

[quote="Andrew"][quote="HouTXmetro"]WV Loop showing heavy moisture moving in/developing from our southwest into the Houston area as we speak, could we be on the verge of winter precipitation beginning tonight?[/quote]


Moisture is def ahead of time but we will prob need more interaction with the low to get that to happen. Euro says moisture will begin around 6am tomm.[/quote]

I also noticed that the temp has rose 1 degree at KHOU from 33 to 34 and my personal thermometer at home has been holding steady at 32.5. What's up with that? I thought we should be slowly falling.

[Andrew]

WV Loop showing heavy moisture moving in/developing from our southwest into the Houston area as we speak, could we be on the verge of winter precipitation beginning tonight?

Moisture is def ahead of time but we will prob need more interaction with the low to get that to happen. Euro says moisture will begin around 6am tomm.

I also noticed that the temp has rose 1 degree at KHOU from 33 to 34 and my personal thermometer at home has been holding steady at 32.5. What's up with that? I thought we should be slowly falling.

It is the interaction with the flow of the gulf. We won't get to the forecasted lows tonight but you should make it to the mid-upper 20's tonight with very LITTLE temp movement tomm.

[Mr. T]

If the precip doesn't start until late evening, the temperatures would probably rise to 35 or 36, despite full cloud cover, thanks to insolation, but once the precip is to begin temperatures will fall rapidly into the upper 20s....

[ejburas]

I'm at 28 now, figuring on getting down to 24 or 25.

[Mr. T]

I also noticed that the temp has rose 1 degree at KHOU from 33 to 34 and my personal thermometer at home has been holding steady at 32.5. What's up with that? I thought we should be slowly falling.

It's cloudy

Thanks to the faster insertion of clouds across the area than previously expected, temperatures probably won't fall much, maybe even rise a few degrees in some spots.

[txsnowmaker]

Are all the models that HGX analyzes now in? If so, just wondering if they will issue a Winter Storm Warning momentarily.

[wxman666]

Are all the models that HGX analyzes now in? If so, just wondering if they will issue a Winter Storm Warning momentarily.

I too would love to know that.