February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[Belmer]

For something that could be interesting here later this week, especially for northern and possibly western parts of TX, this form sure is dead. I haven't seen it this quiet in a long time. I think everyone gave up on Winter and is just ready for Spring to get here. All this wintery talk for down here this past winter has pretty much killed everyone's hope.

[Andrew]

For something that could be interesting here later this week, especially for northern and possibly western parts of TX, this form sure is dead. I haven't seen it this quiet in a long time. I think everyone gave up on Winter and is just ready for Spring to get here. All this wintery talk for down here this past winter has pretty much killed everyone's hope.

Things just are too progressive for anything "really interesting" such as wintry weather to happen this far south. That is one of the reasons why we have been getting so many of these disturbances so often. Until (if) things slow down you can't really have a lot of cold weather make it this far south. It just all shifts East too fast. That along with the lack of model consensus is throwing a lot of people off. So I think it is frustrating to a lot of people and I can understand why. This winter has been abnormal in the severe weather department and we have to remember how fortunate we have been over the last couple of winters with the wintry precip that we have received. Lets see if the 00z suite brings in any improvement. Stay in there everyone this is the fun part! Wait until Hurricane season rolls through that is when the real frustration kicks in.

[srainhoutx]

Good to see some Winter RECON being tasked again. We ceratinly could use that additional data to settle the guidance down...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EST TUE 07 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P37/ DROP 9 (39.8N 140.0W)/ 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 16WSC TRACK37
C. 08/1830Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 09/0600Z

[redneckweather]

From Joe Bastardi this morning:


Coldest air of season into US this wknd. YOU DONT NEED POLAR VORTEX TO DROP IN FOR MAJOR COLD.Such events are rare, but it gets cold anyway


I don't think he is talking about the Deep South but more than likely his bias for the northeast, correct?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Bastardi is normally talking about the northeast or East Coast.

He's gotten a real big kick out of frozen Europe lately.... probably to ruffle the feathers of that fool Hansen.

[Portastorm]

From Joe Bastardi this morning:


Coldest air of season into US this wknd. YOU DONT NEED POLAR VORTEX TO DROP IN FOR MAJOR COLD.Such events are rare, but it gets cold anyway


I don't think he is talking about the Deep South but more than likely his bias for the northeast, correct?

None of the medium-range models are showing "major cold" for Texas. Then again, none of the medium-range models are worth much beyond 120 hours at this point.

[srainhoutx]

There is a little better agreement today regarding the late week time frame. The GFS is a tad dry, but the Canadian/Euro suggests some rains across the area overnight Thursday into Friday morning...

[weatherguy425]

Climate Prediction center also calls for better than average odds of cooler and wetter weather the next two weeks for the desert Southwest and into Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The big difference occurs regarding the medium range (Sunday night/Monday morning) with the various short wave energies as well as the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay. The Euro is very chilly from the Great Lakes all the way down to the Eastern Gulf while the GFS and Canadian are not nearly as 'cold'. This is why I posted the Winter RECON mission tasked for the 9th. The Pacific is extremely noisy and predicting just how the various 'vorts' will rotate around the Polar Vortex is a forecasting challenge at best. One way to describe the Polar Vortex is a 'tornado like' feature in the upper levels. There is virtually no way to know exactly how these features rotating around that potent upper level vorticity will change the sensible weather with any real skill at this range.

[wxman57]

Looking at the 12Z models, the GFS keeps freezing temps north of the Red River (generally) through 384 hrs. Euro is similar, though slightly farther north with the southern extent of the freezing line through 240 hrs. Canadian surface temp forecast is only in through 60 hrs and it only goes out a week at 12Z. None of the models is indicating any significant cold in western Canada over the coming weeks. No cold in Canada = no extreme cold down here.

Euro & GFS are in much better agreement on the passing short wave Sunday evening that may produce a narrow swath of heavy snow across the OK panhandle, KS and western MO Sunday night/Monday. Amounts in the 3-6" range though there could be peaks approaching 8-10", probably in southern KS.

Beyond this weekend/early next week, the models each go their own merry ways for the most part as far as timing, location and strength of future storm systems. I'm wishing I hadn't forecast 29F as the lowest temp IAH would see in February for our forecast contest. Could be closer to 35F for this month.

My wife pointed out to me that our red oak is starting to bud out (leaf buds) already. The trees are starting to believe that winter is over. The real key is always going to be when the pecan trees leaf out. They're always the last to leaf out in spring.

[texoz]

I've got 6 pecan trees (in Austin) so I'll let you know when those bud. Don't see anything yet.

[wxman57]

I've got 6 pecan trees (in Austin) so I'll let you know when those bud. Don't see anything yet.

Pecan trees are very skittish about cold. They're absolutely the last trees to start to leaf out. Temperatures probably regularly hit the 80s before they leaf out. By that time, we all will know that winter is over.

[Ptarmigan]

From Joe Bastardi this morning:


Coldest air of season into US this wknd. YOU DONT NEED POLAR VORTEX TO DROP IN FOR MAJOR COLD.Such events are rare, but it gets cold anyway


I don't think he is talking about the Deep South but more than likely his bias for the northeast, correct?

The February 1989 freeze had positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. The PNA was negative.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/

[wxman57]

However, the 1989 Arctic outbreak didn't start out with well above normal temps throughout Canada (as they are now).

[Portastorm]

While Ed is dreaming of his "fun-derstorms" for spring, I do want to mention that we see considerable divergence in the models even as close as this weekend. The Canadian and Euro are much colder for portions of North Texas, for example, than the GFS. The forecasters at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Washington, D.C., said this morning that the progressive flow across the nation they envisioned by now isn't happening and that "blocking" is lasting longer. They also acknowledge the lack of consensus in the models.

This weekend may yield a few "surprises" ... maybe not for us below the 31-degree north parallel, but for areas to our immediate north-northwest.

[jasons2k]

Harold Taft had an old rule of thumb that winter was over when the mesquite trees began to bloom. But that was DFW and the timings are slightly different up there...

[srainhoutx]

While Ed is dreaming of his "fun-derstorms" for spring, I do want to mention that we see considerable divergence in the models even as close as this weekend. The Canadian and Euro are much colder for portions of North Texas, for example, than the GFS. The forecasters at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Washington, D.C., said this morning that the progressive flow across the nation they envisioned by now isn't happening and that "blocking" is lasting longer. They also acknowledge the lack of consensus in the models.

This weekend may yield a few "surprises" ... maybe not for us below the 31-degree north parallel, but for areas to our immediate north-northwest.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
824 AM EST WED FEB 08 2012

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012 - 12Z WED FEB 15 2012

THE LONGWAVE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DELAYS
TRANSITION MORE SO THAN PRIOR RUNS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS NOW
SHOW MORE SPLITTING OF THE PACIFIC JET AS IT REACHES THE WEST
COAST THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AND GIVEN STUBBORNNESS OF THESE
TYPES OF FLOW THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH
EMBEDDED FEATURES IS ACCORDINGLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TO HELP
RESOLVE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING
THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET IS MOST RECOMMENDED ACROSS THE WEST DAYS
3-5 WHERE THE SPLITTING IS MOST PREVALENT...WITH A TREND TOWARD
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS 6-7 CONSISTENT WITH GROWING
DETERMINISTIC ERROR. THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN DO OFFER REASONABLY
PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS BUT SMALLER SCALE DETAIL WAS FURTHER FROM THE
CONSENSUS AND SEEMS LESS OF A FIT WITH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW...AND
THUS WERE NOT EMPHASIZED. ACROSS THE EAST...MODELS AGREE IN
ALLOWING THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR HUDSON BAY TO SEPARATE INTO
ONE OR MORE PIECES BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD. DEPICTING THE PRECISE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE EJECTIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE. USED A SIMILAR APPROACH AS PREFERRED IN THE
WEST...EXCEPT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS EMPHASIS ON THE STRONGER ECMWF
DUE TO THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...A SIMILAR TREND TOWARD
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN LATER IN THE PERIOD IS PREFERRED AS WELL.




Lubbock:

BY FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TAKES A MORE ACTIVE TURN FOR MUCH
OF THE SWRN CONUS INCLUDING WEST TEXAS. TWO KEY AREAS OF CHANGE
ARE NOTED: THE FIRST IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHERE A BROAD
EXTENSION OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SWEEP SOUTH SERVING TO MOBILIZE
A BONA FIDE ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND THE SECOND REGION OF INTEREST IS
THE PACIFIC COAST WHERE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL
BREAK DOWN AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS SEPARATE FROM THE BASE OF A
DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TROUGHS ARE NOW SHOWN BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO HAVE THE SAME VIGOR AS INDICATED BY THE CMC 24
HRS AGO...THEREFORE THE PATTERN BY THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS QUITE
ACTIVE AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD SETTLE WELL INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS UNDERNEATH A MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE FIRST PACIFIC TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE REGION AS EARLY AS SAT
NIGHT AS A BROAD SELY FEED OF MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWEST. GREATER
LIFT AND SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GARNER THE
BEST POP CHANCES...BUT THE OPEN NATURE OF THIS WAVE STILL LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED FOR OUR OTHERWISE CHARACTERISTIC CLASSIC
WINTER STORM PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE USUAL NWP BIAS OF
UNDERESTIMATING THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THESE ARCTIC SURGES
MAY SERVE TO KEEP PRECIP IN FROZEN FORM LONGER ON SUNDAY.

San Angelo:

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE(HIGH CENTER AROUND 1038
MB)WILL BE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. IN SPECIFIC...
THE CMC IS DUMPING THE COLD AIRMASS STRAIGHT SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE 850 MB
TEMPS OF 0 TO -5 DEG C ACROSS THE CWFA BY SUNDAY...THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER. GOING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY...WITH THE
MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 30S. DO NOT HAVE
THE MAX TEMP GRIDS THAT COLD YET. ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LGT PCPN MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES DUE SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTER PCPN...MAINLY FZRA FROM THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY. GOING TO KEEP THE PCPN LIQUID FOR NOW...HOWEVER
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS ARE ADVERTISING
POSSIBLE WINTER PCPN.

[jasons2k]

I've seen it snow in Lubbock after a pacific front. I've also seen it just from a cold-core ULL. Two out of my four years up there it snowed after spring break. It's not hard to do when you're 3,300ft. up....doesn't mean a whole lot for us except for some run-of-the-mill chilly weather.

[weatherguy425]

So far this winter we had a mixed bag of precipitation on October 27th, freezing rain on December 3rd, and snow on the 5th. Though, there were a couple other times over Christmas Break when I was back in Houston. Models are STILL all over the place. Latest 12z GFS has actually backed of our Lubbock's chance for winter weather... we'll see what the Euro says...

[redneckweather]

I've seen it snow in Lubbock after a pacific front. I've also seen it just from a cold-core ULL. Two out of my four years up there it snowed after spring break. It's not hard to do when you're 3,300ft. up....doesn't mean a whole lot for us except for some run-of-the-mill chilly weather.

Yep, yep and yep. Nothing we haven't seen this fall/winter season already. Just your average cold weather down here.