Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[biggerbyte]

I feel stupid for not sticking to the original thinking that this is the time where RI would occur. Impatience for sure. Hurricane is forthcoming. I also don't see why we will not get a more northerly push out of Ernesto.

[Belmer]

In my opinion, I think it is way to far south to feel the weakness and pull it northward. It would have to really ramp up in hurricane status before hitting the Yucatan for that to happen. Maybe I'm wrong? But I just don't see it happening. Looks for sure this will be a Mexico landfall, if it can even emerge back in the waters of the Bay of Campeche. Might just stay inland and fizzle out before going back over the waters in the Pacific.

[rnmm]

If Ernesto is in fact going through an RI stage, wouldn't that help with a more Northerly track for him? I know he is not coming into our neck of the woods, but I was curious as to if he could/would hit further North on the Mexico coast than they have him progged to hit now?

[srainhoutx]

Ernesto is a tad N of the forecast points already. I suspect we have not seen the last of this northerly component before the first landfall near Cancun as well. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Radar Signature: Good

[Scott747]

Cancun is probably to far N. For new we're prepping Josh for Belize.

[srainhoutx]

3rd center pass suggests a bit more NW trend if anything. The 10 AM Advisory should be an interesting read to say the least.

[Belmer]

I wonder how the mid-low trough over Florida will play in Ernesto if he continues to go in a NW movement. Storms have been known to make huge course change in direction. Take Ike for example.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION. IT
IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL. THIS IS
IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HWRF MODEL.

WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALTHOUGH THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 14:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 14:36:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°51'N 80°26'W (15.85N 80.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 247 miles (397 km) to the SSE (165°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 51kts (From the NNE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,556m (5,105ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 5 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:47:30Z

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Ernesto gaining intensity over the western Caribbean Sea.



Discussion:

Data for a recon aircraft this morning and satellite images indicate that the poorly defined tropical storm is quickly becoming better organized as the forward speed has slowed and a large mass of deep convection has developed over/near the low level center. Flight level winds of 77kts were recorded with a pass through the center this morning in the NW quad. The aircraft has also reported the pressure has fallen to 996mb or down about 10mb from this time yesterday and remarked that an eyewall may be forming. Based on this information Ernesto is likely a strong tropical storm or nearing hurricane intensity.



Track:

While there has been little change to the track reasoning, the storm has wobbled to the WNW or NW this morning and the aircraft has found that the center has reformed to the NE of its previous position. This is likely due to the organizational effects ongoing with the inner core and not an overall motion. Ernesto has reached the western edge of the sub-tropical high and is slowing its forward speed in response to a weakness over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to appear that Ernesto is far enough south that it will not be captured by this weakness and turn NW into the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all of the global model guidance brings the system across Belize or the southern Yucatan and then just barely into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC forecast is in along the northern edge of tight model clustering in the Bay of Campeche.



Intensity:

Ernesto looks to finally be able to take advantage of the low shear and warm water temperature environment over the western Caribbean. With the forward motion slowing and the mass of dry air to the west gone, there now appears to be little to keep the system from intensification. The GFS and EURO which have been correct thus far in showing little intensification continue to show only modest strengthening, while the LGEM and SHIPS guidance is much more aggressive. Given the aircraft data this morning supporting a strong tropical storm and the appearance on satellite images, it appears likely that Ernesto will become a hurricane and may continue to intensify (possibly rapidly) prior to landfall. Once in the Bay of Campeche, the system will only be over water for a short period of time and any intensification should be modest.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 06 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 74-          FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 75-
       A. 07/1200, 1800Z             A. 08/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 1005A ERNESTO        B. AFXXX 1105A ERNESTO
       C. 07/0815Z                   C. 07/2015Z
       D. 16.8N 84.0W                D. 17.5N 86.0W
       E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1800Z       E. 07/2330Z TO 08/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
       SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WATER.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is now suggesting a fully vertically stacked Hurricane very near Cancun...

[Scott747]

The 12Z GFS is now suggesting a fully vertically stacked Hurricane very near Cancun...

That's still a good ways from Cancun Steve. Closer towards the Belize/Mexico border and drives it due W before doing some strange movement halfway to Veracruz.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is now suggesting a fully vertically stacked Hurricane very near Cancun...

That's still a good ways from Cancun Steve. Closer towards the Belize/Mexico border and drives it due W before doing some strange movement halfway to Veracruz.

I apologize, Scott. A bit N of Chetumal would have been much better. So much for posting images from an iphone and pour resolutions at that...

[Scott747]

Looks like you can see the eye clearing out on the latest visible. If so it does appear to have a motion NW of the next forecast point.

[Portastorm]

I was just going to say that, Scott. The last few plot points of Ernesto clearly show a northwest motion. Very interesting.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 16:12Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 16:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°01'N 80°41'W (16.0167N 80.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 232 miles (373 km) to the SSE (168°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,409m (4,623ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 62kts (From the SSE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,557m (5,108ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,471m (4,826ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:02:00Z
Radar Signature: Good

[Scott747]

The 12Z GFS is now suggesting a fully vertically stacked Hurricane very near Cancun...

That's still a good ways from Cancun Steve. Closer towards the Belize/Mexico border and drives it due W before doing some strange movement halfway to Veracruz.

I apologize, Scott. A bit N of Chetumal would have been much better. So much for posting images from an iphone and pour resolutions at that...

No worries. Cancun would be reason to raise that proverbial eyebrow. Of course if it keeps showing what does appear to be a more NW motion then something closer to Cancun might end up being a distinct possibility.

[Scott747]

I was just going to say that, Scott. The last few plot points of Ernesto clearly show a northwest motion. Very interesting.

Well ol Ernie blew up so quickly that sometime you get a wobbling effect as the developing eye consolidates. Something akin to a trochoidal wobble you see with incredibly intense systems though that type of comparison is probably misleading. Wouldn't be surprised to see it smooth out though every little bit it gains latitude like this does makes things interesting on the eventual landfall for either Belize or further N up the Yucatan.