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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:26 pm
by unome
now that's intense...

Himwari-8 Rapid Scan Floater Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... eed_ms=100

Image

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:27 pm
by Paul Robison
Cromagnum wrote:The mountains in Mexico should shred it up all the same, but I imagine stronger in still = stronger out.
You mean---a 150 mph hurricane in the gulf off the Galveston coast by Tuesday? Gulp!!!

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:29 pm
by TexasBreeze
Yeah right over your house.... :roll:

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:34 pm
by Paul Robison
TexasBreeze wrote:Yeah right over your house.... :roll:
I wish I weren't here now.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:46 pm
by Rip76
IP ban?

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:55 pm
by Paul Robison
Rip76 wrote:IP ban?

Never mind. I'm concerned about the wind velocity in the area Tuesday and what the impacts are. Anyone know?

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:04 pm
by Kludge
Rip76 wrote:IP ban?
It wouldn't do any good. It would just be replaced by the next ARIZONA or somesuch.

Best to just not respond and eventually it will figure it's blocked by all ... and either fade into trolling or go off to ruin another board.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:11 pm
by Paul Robison
Kludge wrote:
Rip76 wrote:IP ban?
It wouldn't do any good. It would just be replaced by the next ARIZONA or somesuch.

Best to just not respond and eventually it will figure it's blocked by all ... and either fade into trolling or go off to ruin another board.

I'm not trolling. I'd just rather not see a rerun of the Memorial Day floods.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:52 pm
by Andrew
Let's stay on topic everyone. We need to remember to provide good, reliable information. Patricia is now classifies as a Cat 5 in the Pacific.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:55 pm
by Ptarmigan
Cromagnum wrote:Category 5 based on Dvorak intensity and only continuing to strengthen.
The East Pacific has been very active. They have 10 major hurricanes already, which is a record last set in 1992.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:56 pm
by Paul Robison
Andrew wrote:Let's stay on topic everyone. We need to remember to provide good, reliable information. Patricia is now classifies as a Cat 5 in the Pacific.

What'll she become in the Gulf?

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:30 pm
by Andrew
Paul Robison wrote:
Andrew wrote:Let's stay on topic everyone. We need to remember to provide good, reliable information. Patricia is now classifies as a Cat 5 in the Pacific.

What'll she become in the Gulf?
Just a rainmaker and higher than normal coastal waters. Rain and flooding will be the primary threat.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:47 pm
by Cromagnum
I never said a cat 5 was going to be in the gulf. How could anyone even interpret what i said that way? I just meant the stronger it is before hitting Mexico, the further it has to weaken before popping out of the east side. Maybe TS stuff on the east side and a pile of rain.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:51 pm
by texoz
Ptarmigan wrote:
Cromagnum wrote:Category 5 based on Dvorak intensity and only continuing to strengthen.
The East Pacific has been very active. They have 10 major hurricanes already, which is a record last set in 1992.
Yep, record heat in the Pacific Ocean is a big factor in this. El Nino is on its way to being strongest on record.

I sense that the Atlantic may have its turn in 2016.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:03 pm
by Andrew
Latest GFS would be worst case scenario for SE Texas and the Houston area in particular. Shows the remnants of Patricia hugging the coast and a large band of heavy rain sets-up and tracks over the region.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:09 pm
by Paul Robison
Andrew wrote:Latest GFS would be worst case scenario for SE Texas and the Houston area in particular. Shows the remnants of Patricia hugging the coast and a large band of heavy rain sets-up and tracks over the region.

I Disagree. It shows the heaviest rain tracking to the north of the Houston area. We'll get rained on, I'm sure, but not to the extent that say, Lufkin, or points northeast will.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:12 pm
by Paul Robison
Cromagnum wrote:I never said a cat 5 was going to be in the gulf. How could anyone even interpret what i said that way? I just meant the stronger it is before hitting Mexico, the further it has to weaken before popping out of the east side. Maybe TS stuff on the east side and a pile of rain.

Pardon my drama, but is it possible the whole Houston metro may end up being cut off from the outside world due to flooded streets?

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:13 pm
by Paul Robison
texoz wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
Cromagnum wrote:Category 5 based on Dvorak intensity and only continuing to strengthen.
The East Pacific has been very active. They have 10 major hurricanes already, which is a record last set in 1992.
Yep, record heat in the Pacific Ocean is a big factor in this. El Nino is on its way to being strongest on record.

I sense that the Atlantic may have its turn in 2016.

And that means what for SE Texas?

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:16 pm
by Andrew
Paul Robison wrote:
Andrew wrote:Latest GFS would be worst case scenario for SE Texas and the Houston area in particular. Shows the remnants of Patricia hugging the coast and a large band of heavy rain sets-up and tracks over the region.

I Disagree. It shows the heaviest rain tracking to the north of the Houston area. We'll get rained on, I'm sure, but not to the extent that say, Lufkin, or points northeast will.
This is Harris County that receives 10+ inches of rain. Doesn't make a difference either way.

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:16 pm
by Andrew
Paul Robison wrote:
Cromagnum wrote:I never said a cat 5 was going to be in the gulf. How could anyone even interpret what i said that way? I just meant the stronger it is before hitting Mexico, the further it has to weaken before popping out of the east side. Maybe TS stuff on the east side and a pile of rain.

Pardon my drama, but is it possible the whole Houston metro may end up being cut off from the outside world due to flooded streets?

No