jasons wrote:Hmm. No AFD from the NWS yet. Probably pulling their hair out trying to figure out what's gonna happen tonight.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM CST FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MANY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN INCREDIBLY FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY RAIN... WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROXIMATELY 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER MEXICO...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6
INCHES... AND A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE ENCOURAGING
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN ACTUAL TRIGGERING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO TIME... BUT HAVE BEEN BIG
DRIVERS IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY... SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DID
ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS MORNING /AS EVIDENCED BY THE ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION
THAT DEVELOPED WHEN THE RADAR BEAM WAS DUCTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE
GULF BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM TODAY/... AND THIS ALSO HELPED LIMIT
SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THOSE AREAS TODAY.
HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD ENOUGH TIME TO
RECOVER GIVEN THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE GULF AND
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO HOUSTON HOBBY TO UP
TOWARDS CLEVELAND AS OF 3 PM CST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SAGGED
SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY AND HAS BEEN POORLY
RESOLVED BY SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IN HOW THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE.
COULD SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...
WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK... HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY... HELPING TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CLEARS THE REGION.
HUFFMAN