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The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs and Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggest below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

I like how the forecast discussion talks about lack of chance for sun, while the Weather Channel says that there will be sun.

A.V. wrote:I like how the forecast discussion talks about lack of chance for sun, while the Weather Channel says that there will be sun.

Consider the source. Typically when we are in a progressive pattern with fronts arriving every 3 to 4 days and a noisy flow off the Eastern Pacific, we in Texas are subject to over running mid/high level clouds and often fog as the cooling shelf waters of the Gulf influence our sensible weather.

Any chance the front this weekend will get here a day sooner than expected? We have Christmas in Crowley, La with family Saturday and I'de rather have it 55 outside and not 80...lol

Next chance of frost early next week after a mini-heatwave late Friday and Saturday.

Extra frosty in the Midwest!

18z GFS keeps us below normal through Christmas...

GEM brings in the cold later and harder to SE Texas - off in X-mas fantasyland.




Large temp. gradients as the week flips does appear to be a consistency across models.

With the Stratospheric Polar Vortex projected to shift well West over Alaska which is rather unusual, I'd be careful with the models verbatim beyond a couple of days.

srainhoutx wrote:With the Stratospheric Polar Vortex projected to shift well West over Alaska which is rather unusual, I'd be careful with the models verbatim beyond a couple of days.

I'm not sure I've ever seen that. My guess is that would take the EPO positive yet lock in our source region to cold to extremely cold. Am I off on that?

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:With the Stratospheric Polar Vortex projected to shift well West over Alaska which is rather unusual, I'd be careful with the models verbatim beyond a couple of days.

I'm not sure I've ever seen that. My guess is that would take the EPO positive yet lock in our source region to cold to extremely cold. Am I off on that?

Watch upstream around Hawaii. Strong upper lows tend to pump up a big Ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and along the Pacific Coast. The models aren't handling the volatility of the Hemispheric Pattern.

srainhoutx wrote:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:With the Stratospheric Polar Vortex projected to shift well West over Alaska which is rather unusual, I'd be careful with the models verbatim beyond a couple of days.

I'm not sure I've ever seen that. My guess is that would take the EPO positive yet lock in our source region to cold to extremely cold. Am I off on that?

Watch upstream around Hawaii. Strong upper lows tend to pump up a big Ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and along the Pacific Coast. The models aren't handling the volatility of the Hemispheric Pattern.

Seems that would be perfect for cold conditions if that were the case. Basically sending a ridge into the PV would weaken it, no? Then in return send chunks down the Rockies?

GFS stays consistent with below normal temps through Christmas Day...

srainhoutx wrote:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:With the Stratospheric Polar Vortex projected to shift well West over Alaska which is rather unusual, I'd be careful with the models verbatim beyond a couple of days.

I'm not sure I've ever seen that. My guess is that would take the EPO positive yet lock in our source region to cold to extremely cold. Am I off on that?

Watch upstream around Hawaii. Strong upper lows tend to pump up a big Ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and along the Pacific Coast. The models aren't handling the volatility of the Hemispheric Pattern.

That's the key word of the day.

I love it when cold blasts fizzle out on those models. Needs to happen all the time.

In fact, lets bring that SE ridge across the Southern US permanently, so that arctic air will never arrive again. Winter cold will be nothing greater than 50s at night.

A messy weather pattern continues across SE TX this morning and through the week. Similar weather across SE TX today with warm temps, clouds, fog, and patches of light rain. Dense Fog Advisories this morning for all of SE TX including a large portion of TX from Brownsville to Dallas-Ft Worth.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING...

.AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD.

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-131600-
/O.CON.KHGX.FG.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-161213T1600Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WINNIE
456 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* EVENT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY TO UNDER
ONE-QUARTER MILE.

* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM CST THIS MORNING.

* IMPACT...TRAVEL ON AREA ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

Looking ahead toward the Christmas timeframe via the morning Updated Climate Prediction Center GFS Super Ensembles Day 11+ Analogs, that guidance suggests a big building Ridge across the Northern Pacific indicated by the deeper shades of Red as heights build as well as a strengthen upper Ridge across the SE and Eastern United States that tends to warm up and slow down progression of any colder air from spreading East. Notice the deep Upper trough shaded in Blue that extends from Alaska, Western Canada into the Great Basin. That would tend to favor colder air spilling S versus E and SE as we have seen so far this December.

srainhoutx wrote:Looking ahead toward the Christmas timeframe via the morning Updated Climate Prediction Center GFS Super Ensembles Day 11+ Analogs, that guidance suggests a big building Ridge across the Northern Pacific indicated by the deeper shades of Red as heights build as well as a strengthen upper Ridge across the SE and Eastern United States that tends to warm up and slow down progression of any colder air from spreading East. Notice the deep Upper trough shaded in Blue that extends from Alaska, Western Canada into the Great Basin. That would tend to favor colder air spilling S versus E and SE as we have seen so far this December.

LOVE this pattern much more. This is what we need for not only sustained cold, but chances at wintry precip!

GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement that Houston will see a freeze Monday Morning. 30-32

My neck of the woods could see 26 to 28.

Very interesting pattern developing Sunday into early next week. More moisture and colder weather.

It wouldn't surprise me to hear of some pingers in the northern HGX viewing area.

I'm not getting excited about the possibility of our northern areas (probably a good 80 miles to my north) getting a few if any ice pellets.
Let's talk about a good 2 to 3 inches of snow, maybe more, and a chance it will stay on the ground more than a day, then I'll get a tad interested.
Been burned way too many times in getting excited about the prospects of frozen precip in this area since my childhood.
I recall as a wee child shining a flashlight out of my window for hours on end in the hopes of seeing anything besides liquid fall.
It was not to be.
Everyone recalls the 2004 Christmas eve miracle. I remember some in the weather business hinting at the possibility of snow that Friday, but none and I mean not one said anything about a full blown coastal white-out with 3 inches in Friendswood and the further south southwest were ridiculous amounts up to 11 inches.
Firmly believe meteorologist in this area don't have a grasp of winter weather as they do normal sub tropical weather patterns such as your typical sea breeze thunderstorm or your Tropical systems.
Can't really be upset with them because the real threats for our area come from the Gulf and your rare super cell.