July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[stormlover]

Man it’s going to be hot and dry here.

Still got time, this time yesterday models had us, today says no we have one more day to see if they flip back

[Cromagnum]

Man it’s going to be hot and dry here.

Feast or famine. I think the QPF maps shown earlier are worthless if the storm hits Louisiana head on. No way are we getting inches of rain still

[jasons2k]

It’s gonna be a long night.

[Kingwood36]

It’s gonna be a long night.

Not really if models keep trending like they are..pretty cut and dry

[Scott747]

The hurricane models are finally running and the HWRF is a little further w in the early part of the run than I would have expected. Wouldn't read anything into it just yet...

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, GFS, Canadian, GEFS, Ensemble bring 92L onshore between Lake Charles and Lafayette.

[Texaspirate11]

If that high moves east it will definitely go into LA

[srainhoutx]

Oh look. A Hurricane offshore of the SW Louisiana Coast.

[djmike]

Where does the hwrf go inland at?

[jerryh421]

Where does the hwrf go inland at?

Looks like it’s not far from Lake Charles and from TX/LA border.

[Cpv17]

HWRF makes landfall in SW LA @943mb

[djmike]

Where does the hwrf go inland at?

Looks like it’s not far from Lake Charles and from TX/LA border.

Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

The NHC now showing a 90%/90% chance of a depression forming. They also state the Tropical Storm/Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches may be required tomorrow. Those from SE Texas back East along the Northern Gulf Coast need to monitor closely according to the NHC.

[srainhoutx]

I will point out that the HWRF was very close to the same as the 12Z UKMET. While the ECMWF scores #1 in reliability inside 5 days, the UKMET scores 2nd and the GFS 3rd. All that said we are now seeing some increased thunderstorms over the NE Gulf and it is possible that the beginning of a surface feature is attempting to organize over water. We likely will have a much better idea of what future Barry may offer by this time tomorrow.

[Cpv17]

In my opinion as of now I think the furthest west this gets is SW LA, but I wouldn’t be surprised if models turn back more west starting tonight into tomorrow. Can’t rule us out yet.

[Cpv17]

18z Euro shifted back west closer to the border again.

[davidiowx]

18z Euro shifted back west closer to the border again.

What’s the 18z Euro you speak off

[DoctorMu]

[djmike]

Did the model consensus move east now to SE la??

[Cpv17]

18z Euro shifted back west closer to the border again.

What’s the 18z Euro you speak off

It’s new, but it looks much more interesting for us.