July 2021

[Stratton20]

whats the point of the NHC putting a yellow X on this system if its not expected to develop? Seems like a waste to me

[mcheer23]

CMC shows higher rainfall totals as well..

through 42 hours

Sugar Land 7.82
Hobby 6.99
Bush 6.67
Katy 7.77

bullseye near ft bend/ wharton 9.99

[don]

whats the point of the NHC putting a yellow X on this system if its not expected to develop? Seems like a waste to me

I think its just to be on the safe side just in case,one could make an argument that this has been a depression since yesterday or at least a subtropical like system.But because its attached to an upper trough and being inland is part of the reason why i think they didn't classify it.

[Stratton20]

Don ah i gotcha

[mcheer23]

Ft Bend and Wharton counties have been added to the flood watch

[Stratton20]

Yep im officially in the FFW now

[Kingwood36]

I'm suprised Brazoria hasn't been added

[Kingwood36]

Nevermind we are

[869MB]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.UPDATE...

Based on new short range guidance, have increased rainfall totals
for tonight into Friday and expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include Ft Bend (mainly southern half) and Wharton County to the
existing Watch. A couple of factors support increasing the amounts
such as a strong and persistent low level jet that appears to
focus on Matagorda and Wharton counties, a split flow aloft, a
weak speed max and abundant tropical moisture.

We also expanded the SCA to include the north upper Texas coastal
waters and added a Rip Current Statement per the Galveston Beach
Patrol. 43

&&

.AVIATION...


TAFS are basically a nightmare today. Showers could basically
develop anywhere and anytime. Ceilings will also be variable and
could go from VFR to IFR with passing showers. TEMPOs will likely
be required but when and where is still somewhat uncertain.
Leaned toward the 12-13z HRRR for guidance blended with LAV
guidance. Aviation interests should expect a slew of amendments as
conditions could and likely will change throughout the day. 43

&&

[Stratton20]

Its going to be a very interesting next 24-48 hours

[don]

12Z Canadian

[Dls2010r]

What’s it’s saying for Santa Fe Don?

[Stratton20]

Looks like we could see some flooding problems as well

[Stratton20]

12z Euro continues to struggle with this potential heavy rain setup, might as well discard the Euro here

[Dls2010r]

Why?

[Stratton20]

DLs2010r because it is clearly under-doing the rainfall potential, GFS CMC and mesoscale models have been consistent on some heavy totals streching as far Eastas fort bend county and houston, Euro definitely is not picking up on this setup well

[Dls2010r]

Thanks Stratton. I’m in Santa Fe and haven’t gotten much of anything yet. That’s why I was asking.

[Stratton20]

No problem Dls2010r no problem! Im thinking tonight into friday. is when we have the beat opportunity for some very heavy rain

[Dls2010r]

Just really windy with lots of cloud cover here.

[Cpv17]

Been raining pretty steadily here in Rosenberg now for about 30 min.