Page 13 of 21
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:27 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:59 pm
I really hope El NINO makes a return next winter, i am over this La Nina ruining winter, ill take a wet pattern next week though, as long as we can stay away from the 80’s
The bad thing about El Niño though is that it’s difficult to get cold in our source region so we never really get any big Artic outbreaks in an El Niño. Just about every Artic outbreak we’ve had has came in a La Niña. But overall though I’d take an El Niño because we do have a better chance for snow with it because southern Pacific jet is more active and with the added precipitation it usually keeps our temps from torching. Just hard to get extreme cold in an El
Niño is the only downfall.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:31 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 hey id take that tradeoff, good news is the 12z GFS shows another front on monday, keeping us cool for a few days with a stormy pattern, dont think we will see a blow torch pattwrn ( hopefully)
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:46 am
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:27 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:59 pm
I really hope El NINO makes a return next winter, i am over this La Nina ruining winter, ill take a wet pattern next week though, as long as we can stay away from the 80’s
The bad thing about El Niño though is that it’s difficult to get cold in our source region so we never really get any big Artic outbreaks in an El Niño. Just about every Artic outbreak we’ve had has came in a La Niña. But overall though I’d take an El Niño because we do have a better chance for snow with it because southern Pacific jet is more active and with the added precipitation it usually keeps our temps from torching. Just hard to get extreme cold in an El
Niño is the only downfall.
Lots of overrun and cool/cold drizzle.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:02 pm
by DoctorMu
It's Texas, so the wind is back today, this time out of the South. Crystal blue persuasion skies. Mid 60s. Just another day in paradise (No A/C, no sprinklers). A dry front Wed. night leading to cooler but sunny Thursday and Friday (highs in the 50s).
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:09 pm
by Stratton20
Hope we get some rain soon, man is it getting dry here
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:47 pm
by Stratton20
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:24 pm
by Stratton20
Interesting at the end of the 12z Euro, shows a big dip in the jet or trough right over us
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:05 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:24 pm
Interesting at the end of the 12z Euro, shows a big dip in the jet or trough right over us
We really need the pattern to slow down. Everything has been so progressive. The jet stream is racing a million mph!
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:13 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 well hope the Euro is on to something, what we need is ridging off the east coast, that should help to slow down these storm systems
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:09 pm
by Stratton20
The GFS is starting to show signs of another arctic blast around the 17th-18th , far out but we will see
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:30 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:09 pm
The GFS is starting to show signs of another arctic blast around the 17th-18th , far out but we will see
It's also strongly extended as well, with a 2nd wave on the 21st-22nd. (Very far out, but Yikes!)
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:44 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yep saw that, hopefully this is the start of a trend and not just a one time model run
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:19 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:09 pm
The GFS is starting to show signs of another arctic blast around the 17th-18th , far out but we will see
Well the GEFS does much up fairly well with the GFS for the same timeframe so that’s a good sign. The 500mb pattern in the long range looks nearly perfect.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:23 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:44 pm
Iceresistance yep saw that, hopefully this is the start of a trend and not just a one time model run
It may be the one time run for this one, but it's a warning sign on things to come, the extreme cold is more likely in February. That cold may counter the Record Warm in December 2021
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:58 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 yep , usually if the GFS showed that cold blast but not the ensembles I would take it with a huge grain of salt but since the GEFS is kind of in line with the operational GFS, that definitely deserves at least some attention
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:45 pm
by Stratton20
18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:35 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:45 pm
18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up
This is similar to the 12z GFS run, this could get REALLY interesting
EDIT: Also, this cold blast could be self-sustaining for weeks since the MJO is moving very slowly.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:39 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:45 pm
18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up
This is similar to the 12z GFS run, this could get REALLY interesting
EDIT: Also, this cold blast could be self-sustaining for weeks since the MJO is moving very slowly.
Hopefully the MJO will finally move into p8.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:43 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yep it could, still 10 days out, but the fact that the GFS has been advertising this the last few runs is definitely worth watching
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:54 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:43 pm
Iceresistance yep it could, still 10 days out, but the fact that the GFS has been advertising this the last few runs is definitely worth watching
GEFS is showing this too as well, there are at least 5-7 Members in the same general agreement on the 18z Run in the same general timeframe (January 20th to January 23rd)
