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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:58 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:54 am Looks like a pitiful line of rain on the way now.

I’m experiencing it as I’m typing this. It’s pretty weak sauce. Had some gusts up to about 40mph a few minutes before the rain hit. The rain isn’t even heavy. Just mainly light to moderate showers.

Next!

Yeah.. but what is the temp as it blows through? It’s down to 58 here all of a sudden. That wind has a bite to it too!

Eta: rain picking up now. .10”.. probably get a 1/4” to possibly 1/2” if I’m lucky. I’ll take it!

Maybe an 1/8 of an inch. So much for that hope for rain.

0.16" here, barely enough to pause the drying for a few days. So much for that.

Got right at 0.30 here in Fairfield. The wind was pretty wild for a few minutes before the rain came through. Only a few smaller rumblings of thunder.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Lingering showers from this morning`s cold front should drift into
the Gulf of Mexico by sunrise as skies clear out across the region.
Moderate N/NW winds brought by the recent FROPA should continue
throughout much of the day with the strongest of these winds
occuring during the morning/afternoon hours. High resolution
guidance depicts 850mb winds reaching upwards of 40-50kts during
this time frame. While we won`t get speeds anywhere close to that at
the surface, moderate to occasionally strong wind gusts may mix down
to the surface during today. One area of particular concern would be
portions of the Brazos Valley, which will find itself on the fringes
of the right entrance of an upper level jet streak. High res models
depict a weak reinforcing boundary entering this region by late
morning, later fizzling out during the afternoon. While these winds
may exceed our wind advisory criteria, I have opted to not go with a
wind advisory at this time due to the short-fused nature of this
feature.

Putting that aside, the sustained N/NW flow should bring cool, dry,
fall weather today with highs in the mid to low 70s. High pressure
will slowly build into our area later today, allowing winds to
diminish in the afternoon, later becoming light in the evening.
Clear skies should allow for effective radiative cooling with lows
ranging from the 40s inland to upper 50s/lower 60s along the coast.
With PWATS below 0.5" and zonal flow in the upper levels, we can
expect this benign weather to continue through midweek. Weak 850mb
ridging and diminished CAA should bring temperatures up a tad on
Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Onshore flow should
return Wednesday evening as the aforementioned surface high pressure
drifts east into the Mississippi River Valley. The return of onshore
flow will allow for moisture to gradually rise across the region,
keeping lows for Wednesday slightly warmer than that of tonight.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Thursday will be a little warmer (upper 70s to low 80s) as high pressure
moves off to the east and allows for southeast winds to return to the
area. Increasing moisture levels and a developing surface low around
the middle to upper Texas coast Thursday night through Friday night
will bring our area its next round of showers and thunderstorms with
the greatest rain chances currently looking to set up in the Thursday
night through Friday morning or afternoon time period. This system`s
circulation center looks to slowly move into the Louisiana and Arkansas
area over the weekend, and this could allow for some wraparound clouds
to linger across parts of the area (especially northeast locations)
through Saturday or Saturday night. Low temperatures in the 40s/50s
and highs mainly in the 70s are anticipated Friday through Sunday.
For the first part of next week, surface high pressure will work its
way eastward and allow for an onshore flow to return to the area resulting
in a gradual warming trend. Tuesday marks the start of November, but
it will not feel like November with highs back into the 80s.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Gusty N/NE winds (15-20kt/G25kt) are expected to develop across
the region in the wake of this morning`s cold front. A weak
reinforcing boundary should enter the Brazos Valley this morning,
bringing stronger winds (20-25kt/G35kt) to KCLL and KUTS through
the early afternoon. Winds should diminish in the late afternoon
as high pressure begins to build in overhead. Light winds and VFR
conditions should persist overnight and into Wednesday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Moderate to occasionally strong offshore winds and elevated seas can
be expected in the wake of the cold front. Expect decreasing shower
and thunderstorm coverage in the morning. Winds and seas will gradually
decrease as the day progresses. Onshore flow returns towards the latter
half of the week as high pressure pushes off to the east. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to return to the area mainly Thursday night through
Friday morning in association with the next surface low and cold front.
Mainly moderate northwest winds and elevated seas can be expected Friday
night through Saturday night.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 60 74 64 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

We managed to officially receive 0.58 inches of rain in CLL. Winds continue to bluster from the NW at 20 G30.

Fingers crossed I can finally shut down the sprinklers for the season!

Well it appears the GFS has decided to stop working on tropical tidbits, gotta love it when that happens smh

I’m just now catching this 10/24 Houston AFD from Monday Afternoon giving props to the Houston Astros while low key taking shots at the NY Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies. Very cleverly worded and comprised…


LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

Whelp....they wanted Houston....to have another round of Fall-like
temperatures and so did we! We're gonna get em too as we pick things
up on Wednesday morning with temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s
as you walk out the door. We'll be buried in the H...high pressure
that is...as it continues its stronghold over the Central and
Southern Plains and provides a steady stream of cooler and drier
air. Even though there'll be plentiful sunshine on Wednesday, with
850mb temperatures ranging from 10-12°C, there won't be much in the
way of warming as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s. High
pressure sweeps out of the area late Wednesday with onshore flow
returning by Thursday as moisture goes on a steep launch angle going
towards the end of the work week.

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Gusts of around 25 knots will remain possible over the next few
hours before gradually tapering off as we approach the evening.
Winds become light and variable overnight, with prevailing winds
out of the east developing tomorrow morning and reaching around
5-10 knots.

Cady

&&

It appears a significant pattern change could be coming for portions of the central US as we approach november, all three global models now show blocking over alaska and cold air plunging south ,it remains to be seen where it goes from there, does the cold air get shunted into the western US, does it drive down south into texas or does it get shoved off to out east, the GFS, CMC and Euro all have 3 different solutions which is normal, but the potential is growing for a shot of arctic air to enter the picture in about 10-12 days, something to watch for all of you colder weather fans out their including me haha!

Back to running outside for the first time since April.

It feels so good

Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Morning low of 46 tommorow for my area, absolutely loving it

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:32 pm Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Good way to get sick.

I got 2 inches for the previous storm.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:44 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:32 pm Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Good way to get sick.

Not if you're prepared for it!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:44 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:32 pm Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Good way to get sick.

Myth.

I ran in single digits and teens regularly while in post grad work.

Not again…

A strong storm system will bring the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather to SE TX Friday.

Parameters appear to be coming together for a highly active Thursday night-Friday evening as the next storm system currently entering the NW US moves into the southern plains late this week. Area will be within the post frontal air mass today with cool and dry conditions in place, but surface high pressure will begin to move eastward tonight and this will allow winds to turn onshore on Thursday. Quick moisture return is expected on Thursday as a coastal trough develops along the lower TX coast and helps to quickly bring Gulf moisture northward over the mid and upper TX coast. Clouds will increase from south to north during the day, and lift will likely begin to develop a few showers and even a couple of thunderstorms by Thursday evening as the moisture profile increases.

Friday:
Strong storm system over the SW US Thursday night will slow and eject into TX Friday morning. Strong jet stream aloft coupled with large scale upper level divergence and a decent low level jet with tropical moisture transport all point to an active weather day. Moisture profiles by Friday morning are nearing the 95 percentile for this time of year with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches over the area. Incoming large scale lift will overspread the area by Friday morning and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. Shear, instability, and moisture look favorable for some of the storms to become severe with all severe modes being possible.

Position of the upper level storm system on Friday over NW TX taking on an increasingly negative tilt supports training of SW to NE moving showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely with this system with isolated higher amounts. Given the high levels of moisture that will be in place on Friday, hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5 inches will be possible. Grounds are very dry over the region, so rainfall is much needed with ongoing drought conditions, however street flooding will be possible where hourly rates exceed local capacity.

Weekend:
Upper level system slow over east TX, but much of the area should be on the western side of the upper low on Saturday allowing a cool and drier air mass to slide in from the NW. Wrap around clouds and even show light showers could impact areas north of I-10 on Saturday with temperatures in the 60’s and NW winds of 10-20mph. Clearing skies Saturday night into Sunday with lows in the 40’s and highs Sunday in the low 70’s.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

Yep the system this Friday should bring more widespread rain to the area.Looks like a large MCS will move through with cyclogenisis forming a surface low over us..A caveat to seeing widespread precip is the possibility of the surface reflection forming in the gulf and robbing alot of moisture away from us.At least for now though early runs of the mesoscale models are coming in pretty wet.We'll see if Lucy decides to make an appearance or not LOL

Wouldn’t be surprised to see another bust with this system, Ill believe it when i see it