May 2023
The atmosphere is too worked over right now. We’ll see if anything pops up later this evening.
So we should expect another round this evening into tonight? Looks like its all diminishing SW of us. Wonder if we are too worked over today.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4336
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Maybe tommorow but i suspect we are done for today/ tonight with rain chances, going to take a while for the atmosphere to recharge
The rain this morning pretty much killed our chances for the rest of the day it seems like.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 5:00 pm Maybe tommorow but i suspect we are done for today/ tonight with rain chances, going to take a while for the atmosphere to recharge
It's a surface low now without a lot of oomph. We had maybe 0.1 of rain this morning.
Cloudy and mild works for me. Every day until football season.
Cloudy and mild works for me. Every day until football season.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4336
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Looking beyond these next few days the pattern looks to stay unsettled for the next few weeks, models hinting at a weak frontal boundary moving in and stalling out, but thats beyond 5 days for now
We're dealing with systems that are difficult to predict. I would expect that El Niño should mean less Death Ridge and more rain/clouds this summer. We'll see.
The next few weeks are usually our best chance of rain in CLL before the spigot turns off.
The next few weeks are usually our best chance of rain in CLL before the spigot turns off.
Looks like Matagorda Bay is starting to reload.
FWIW the HRRR really shows the Low cranking up tomorrow morning.With a slow moving feeder band/MCS over the area.Showing localized spots of 5-10" inches of rain falling in some areas.If this is correct the moderate risk currently in place definitely seems warranted for tomorrow.
Last edited by don on Tue May 09, 2023 8:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Man that’s wicked.. luckily it is moving and not just hanging out.don wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 7:58 pm FWIW the HRRR really shows the Low cranking up tomorrow morning.With a slow moving feeder band/MCS over the area.Showing localized spots of 5-10" inches of rain falling in some areas.
Screenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-29-23 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-29-42 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-30-45 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-38-13 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
FWIW the HRRR really shows the Low cranking up tomorrow morning.With a slow moving feeder band/MCS over the area.Showing localized spots of 5-10" inches of rain falling in some areas.If this is correct the moderate risk currently in place definitely seems warranted for tomorrow.(The RGEM looks similar also)
It depends upon how the low behaves, but that looks to me like a lot of rain east of I-45 if the low moves northerly as expected.don wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 7:58 pm FWIW the HRRR really shows the Low cranking up tomorrow morning.With a slow moving feeder band/MCS over the area.Showing localized spots of 5-10" inches of rain falling in some areas.If this is correct the moderate risk currently in place definitely seems warranted for tomorrow.
Screenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-29-23 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-29-42 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-30-45 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-38-13 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Also rain south of I-10 possible for a change...
Edit - I see a trough offshore - that's going to complicate things.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
The strong storms and heavy rainfall that affected Southeast TX this
morning and afternoon have either dissipated or moved off the the
east northeast, but some light to occasionally moderate rainfall
will continue for some locations during the next few hours. As of 3
PM today, rainfall accumulations between 0.5 to 1.5 inches were seen
in many locations, with isolated amounts between 2.0 to 4.5 inches.
Some low lying and poor drainage areas may continue to experience
ponding of water, please allow time for these waters to recede
during the next hour or so. A decrease in rain activity is expected
this evening into early tonight, but a few showers may still move
across the southern counties from time to time. Overcast skies are
expected to return tonight into Wednesday and some areas see some
patchy fog. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide (coolest over the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods).
An active weather pattern will persist Wednesday as the mid to upper
level low/trough very slowly moves northeast and another surge of
moisture with PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches moves in. Expect a few more
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to start again during the early
morning hours. Although the Hi-Res models are not consistent yet,
the general thinking is that the stronger storms should begin to
move into Southeast TX from the west prior to sunrise and affect the
local area through at least early afternoon. Some of these storms
will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 2.0 to 4.0 inches
again. Thus, minor river, street, and urban flooding is still of
concern for Wednesday...especially for the Houston Metro area and
those who did receive good amounts of rainfall today. Some areas may
experience heavy rainfall during the morning commute; therefore,
make sure to check the latest forecast and warnings and road/traffic
conditions before it. Never cross flooded areas. WPC has continued a
Slight to Moderate Risk for Excessive Rain for Wednesday. The Flood
Watch remains in effect through Wednesday evening (Matagorda and
Jackson counties are now included in the Flood Watch).
By the late afternoon to evening hours, the mid to upper level
trough will shift into Northeast TX and slightly drier air will move
in, decreasing our rain chances. However, some light rain showers
could linger through nighttime hours, thus, kept low chances of rain
(20% or less) for Wednesday night.
24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
No significant changes made to the extended. Mid-upper low will be
in the process of moving north and getting absorbed into the trof
in the Plains on Thurs. Daytime heating and lingering elevated
moisture levels will produce scattered showers/storms & probably
some "banding" type features across the northern parts of the area
in the synoptic flow.
Friday remains a transition day, with more typical late spring/early
summer wx. Less overall precip coverage and chances, but still
some isolated to scattered afternoon & evening activity.
Southwest flow aloft again impinges of the area this weekend as
western trof in Mexico gets a bit further closer to TX. Southwest-
to-northeast moving disturbances will bring increasing shra/tstm
chances to the region. First on Saturday...generally west of I-45.
Then Sunday, maybe north and west of the US59/I69 corridor.
Cold front tries to make it into the CWA later Monday or Tuesday.
Given the upper pattern, I`m not convinced it`ll make it as far
south as some of the guidance suggests. I hope it does...as
sometimes weakening/stalling boundaries don`t play nice this time
of year. But we`ll worry about that later. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
Some -RA/-SHRA is possible this evening, and ceilings are expected to
become MVFR. Ceilings should continue to lower during the overnight
hours as SHRA/TSRA gradually work this way into the area from the W
and SW, and have SHRA/TSRA prevailing across the area in the morning
hours (roughly 12Z-18Z). Should see improving conditions in the afternoon
(decreasing SHRA/TSRA coverage along with rising ceilings/visibilities).
Lower ceilings/visibilities along with higher winds/gusts will be possible
with the stronger activity.
Confidence on the timing of this round of storms is not very high, so
expect some changes to the TAFs as the evening and overnight hours
progress.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
A convoluted wind field over the waters at the present time
complements of showers/storms and a MCV situated off High Island
area. Winds should generally return to the southeast and increase
in speed. Threw in the caution flags for the Gulf waters as speeds
have reached at least that criteria the previous couple nights...and
see no reason for the same tonight. Persistent southeast fetch in
the Gulf will maintain moderate winds/seas into the weekend.
Caution adn/or advisory flags will be needed at times and a high
risk of rip currents along area beaches should continue. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 79 69 85 / 60 70 20 50
Houston (IAH) 69 79 71 84 / 60 80 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 73 81 75 82 / 40 70 20 30
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
The strong storms and heavy rainfall that affected Southeast TX this
morning and afternoon have either dissipated or moved off the the
east northeast, but some light to occasionally moderate rainfall
will continue for some locations during the next few hours. As of 3
PM today, rainfall accumulations between 0.5 to 1.5 inches were seen
in many locations, with isolated amounts between 2.0 to 4.5 inches.
Some low lying and poor drainage areas may continue to experience
ponding of water, please allow time for these waters to recede
during the next hour or so. A decrease in rain activity is expected
this evening into early tonight, but a few showers may still move
across the southern counties from time to time. Overcast skies are
expected to return tonight into Wednesday and some areas see some
patchy fog. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide (coolest over the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods).
An active weather pattern will persist Wednesday as the mid to upper
level low/trough very slowly moves northeast and another surge of
moisture with PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches moves in. Expect a few more
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to start again during the early
morning hours. Although the Hi-Res models are not consistent yet,
the general thinking is that the stronger storms should begin to
move into Southeast TX from the west prior to sunrise and affect the
local area through at least early afternoon. Some of these storms
will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 2.0 to 4.0 inches
again. Thus, minor river, street, and urban flooding is still of
concern for Wednesday...especially for the Houston Metro area and
those who did receive good amounts of rainfall today. Some areas may
experience heavy rainfall during the morning commute; therefore,
make sure to check the latest forecast and warnings and road/traffic
conditions before it. Never cross flooded areas. WPC has continued a
Slight to Moderate Risk for Excessive Rain for Wednesday. The Flood
Watch remains in effect through Wednesday evening (Matagorda and
Jackson counties are now included in the Flood Watch).
By the late afternoon to evening hours, the mid to upper level
trough will shift into Northeast TX and slightly drier air will move
in, decreasing our rain chances. However, some light rain showers
could linger through nighttime hours, thus, kept low chances of rain
(20% or less) for Wednesday night.
24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
No significant changes made to the extended. Mid-upper low will be
in the process of moving north and getting absorbed into the trof
in the Plains on Thurs. Daytime heating and lingering elevated
moisture levels will produce scattered showers/storms & probably
some "banding" type features across the northern parts of the area
in the synoptic flow.
Friday remains a transition day, with more typical late spring/early
summer wx. Less overall precip coverage and chances, but still
some isolated to scattered afternoon & evening activity.
Southwest flow aloft again impinges of the area this weekend as
western trof in Mexico gets a bit further closer to TX. Southwest-
to-northeast moving disturbances will bring increasing shra/tstm
chances to the region. First on Saturday...generally west of I-45.
Then Sunday, maybe north and west of the US59/I69 corridor.
Cold front tries to make it into the CWA later Monday or Tuesday.
Given the upper pattern, I`m not convinced it`ll make it as far
south as some of the guidance suggests. I hope it does...as
sometimes weakening/stalling boundaries don`t play nice this time
of year. But we`ll worry about that later. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
Some -RA/-SHRA is possible this evening, and ceilings are expected to
become MVFR. Ceilings should continue to lower during the overnight
hours as SHRA/TSRA gradually work this way into the area from the W
and SW, and have SHRA/TSRA prevailing across the area in the morning
hours (roughly 12Z-18Z). Should see improving conditions in the afternoon
(decreasing SHRA/TSRA coverage along with rising ceilings/visibilities).
Lower ceilings/visibilities along with higher winds/gusts will be possible
with the stronger activity.
Confidence on the timing of this round of storms is not very high, so
expect some changes to the TAFs as the evening and overnight hours
progress.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
A convoluted wind field over the waters at the present time
complements of showers/storms and a MCV situated off High Island
area. Winds should generally return to the southeast and increase
in speed. Threw in the caution flags for the Gulf waters as speeds
have reached at least that criteria the previous couple nights...and
see no reason for the same tonight. Persistent southeast fetch in
the Gulf will maintain moderate winds/seas into the weekend.
Caution adn/or advisory flags will be needed at times and a high
risk of rip currents along area beaches should continue. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 79 69 85 / 60 70 20 50
Houston (IAH) 69 79 71 84 / 60 80 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 73 81 75 82 / 40 70 20 30
Picked-up another .68" today. Now it's looking like another round overnight & in the morning but the low should be moving out, versus getting stuck to the west of us.
A wet start to the morning looks like. I would not be surprised if there is flooding.don wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:10 pm FWIW the HRRR really shows the Low cranking up tomorrow morning.With a slow moving feeder band/MCS over the area.Showing localized spots of 5-10" inches of rain falling in some areas.If this is correct the moderate risk currently in place definitely seems warranted for tomorrow.(The RGEM looks similar also)
Screenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-30-45 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-29-42 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-38-13 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-09 at 19-45-48 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
High chances will remain in the forecast for probably the next two weeks and any of those days there could be flooding issues.
It looks like the low is moving north but staying west of us, putting us in a potential firehose on the east side. We've only had about 0.1 today. But it could be a lot more in the wee hours and tomorrow.
hmmmmmm...the mesos track the low through CLL on the way to Texarkana. That could make things interesting in Harris, Montgomery, and Liberty Counties in the afternoon...
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
That ride in to work this morning as a nightmare. Couldn't see a damn thing for 30 mins!