January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

If this powerful high was to pan out, when could the freeze happen? It looks like it first appears next week, which means it could be cold around Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is January 17th. That's one strong high pressure system right there!

The GFS has been indicating a time area between the 10-13.

[helloitsb]

Yea if you look at the Contour lines they are oriented pretty much straight south which would indicate the cold air heading straight south. What happens is the high pressure pretty much breaks up and like Mr. T was saying earlier the upper levels show a different story. Precip at this time frame is impossible to predict but I think it is def possible.

alright thanks! with that I'm out, thanks for all the input hoping the other models are on board when I wake up

[sambucol]

Yea if you look at the Contour lines they are oriented pretty much straight south which would indicate the cold air heading straight south. What happens is the high pressure pretty much breaks up and like Mr. T was saying earlier the upper levels show a different story. Precip at this time frame is impossible to predict but I think it is def possible.

So in SE TX we would have major cold? Lows in the teens? What would the highs probably be? Any idea how long we could possibly be below freezing?

[Ptarmigan]

The GFS has been indicating a time area between the 10-13.

That's soon. I saw a 384 hour GFS model and shows that it could get cold around mid-January. Also, it had rain during the freeze. I know it is too early to tell.
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

[skidog38]

where is that guy that typed all caps. was it EXTREME COLD?

[Mr. T]

The 0z gfs looks just like the 12z euro at 500 mb!

Surface is different a bit but who cares... It's still damn cold

[ronyan]

where is that guy that typed all caps. was it EXTREME COLD?

You mean MR. BITTER COLD? I haven't seen him on here in quite a while.

[Andrew]

Yea if you look at the Contour lines they are oriented pretty much straight south which would indicate the cold air heading straight south. What happens is the high pressure pretty much breaks up and like Mr. T was saying earlier the upper levels show a different story. Precip at this time frame is impossible to predict but I think it is def possible.

So in SE TX we would have major cold? Lows in the teens? What would the highs probably be? Any idea how long we could possibly be below freezing?

GFS was showing high's in the upper 20's but since it is in 12 hour intervals add 5-10 degrees so we could barely get out of freezing for the day. IF this run came true we could see below freezing temps for a couple of days with only a couple of hours barely getting above freezing. Too bad moisture is so hard to predict. As ED says freezing with no precip is no fun.

[Mr. T]

So in SE TX we would have major cold? Lows in the teens? What would the highs probably be? Any idea how long we could possibly be below freezing?

I just think it's too early to get into specifics at this point. But, I would keep the idea in the back of my mind that a prolonged period of cold weather is possible starting next week

[skidog38]

where is that guy that typed all caps. was it EXTREME COLD?

You mean MR. BITTER COLD? I haven't seen him on here in quite a while.

lol. thats right.

[Andrew]

00z:



18z:




What a difference

[Mr. T]

GFS was showing high's in the upper 20's but since it is in 12 hour intervals add 5-10 degrees so we could barely get out of freezing for the day. IF this run came true we could see below freezing temps for a couple of days with only a couple of hours barely getting above freezing. Too bad moisture is so hard to predict. As ED says freezing with no precip is no fun.

I think record breaking cold, dry air can be fun

I guess statistics are just really interesting to me. Baseball ftw

[Andrew]

GFS was showing high's in the upper 20's but since it is in 12 hour intervals add 5-10 degrees so we could barely get out of freezing for the day. IF this run came true we could see below freezing temps for a couple of days with only a couple of hours barely getting above freezing. Too bad moisture is so hard to predict. As ED says freezing with no precip is no fun.

I think record breaking cold, dry air can be fun

I guess statistics are just really interesting to me. Baseball ftw

No I agree. It will be really interesting to see how low we can get but snow would be that much cooler especially considering it could stay on the ground for a day or so.

[Paul]

0z showing about 4 days at or below freezing......crap...

[sambucol]

0z showing about 4 days at or below freezing......crap...

When did Steve say he would start a cold weather prep thread? If we have a couple of below freezing with lows in the teens, I'm guessing the best thing to do for a home on piers would be to shut off the water and drain the pipes. The pipes are under the house in a crawl space. It would be an inconvenient thing to do but the pipes wouldn't burst.

It seems more and more likely the frigid cold is going to make it down here and stay a while.

[Andrew]

0z showing about 4 days at or below freezing......crap...

When did Steve say he would start a cold weather prep thread? If we have a couple of below freezing with lows in the teens, I'm guessing the best thing to do for a home on piers would be to shut off the water and drain the pipes. The pipes are under the house in a crawl space. It would be an inconvenient thing to do but the pipes wouldn't burst.

It seems more and more likely the frigid cold is going to make it down here and stay a while.

You can prob start one if you want. We need a general cold weather prep thread anyways.

[Andrew]

For entertainment purposes only.

[TexasMetBlake]

I hate when big weather events happen. I get paralized at the computer and can't move. LOL. I'm really wondering what the Euro will show. Folks, screen shot the 12z while you have it. It may be a very long time before you see a model run, especially the Euro as sweet as that. I doubt the high will be 1070 this run, but it might be. Maybe stronger

[Mr. T]

For shats and giggles, the 0z CMC gives us some snow action

[Andrew]

I hate when big weather events happen. I get paralized at the computer and can't move. LOL. I'm really wondering what the Euro will show. Folks, screen shot the 12z while you have it. It may be a very long time before you see a model run, especially the Euro as sweet as that. I doubt the high will be 1070 this run, but it might be. Maybe stronger

Lets hope it is not stronger or we are going to have a serious problem.