June Ends - Hottest on Record

[unome]

35-acre fire being reported in FM 2920 & Stuebner Airline vicinity

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?secti ... id=8198577

[wxman57]

12Z Canadian keeps all the moisture/rain east of Texas next week. GFS is pretty wet for us Wed-Fri. Euro still doesn't show much. I do think we'll see some rain starting Wednesday. Hope it's enough to at least water the plants/trees/grass.

[jeff]

Large forest fire burning in Trinity County as seen on 88D and visible images. Several hundred acres now burned.

This is the worst fire weather I have ever seen across SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Large forest fire burning in Trinity County as seen on 88D and visible images. Several hundred acres now burned.

This is the worst fire weather I have ever seen across SE TX.

Thanks for the update, Jeff. Keep us informed when you can.

[srainhoutx]

Some temps around Central and SE TX this past hour:
Cotulla=108
San Angelo=107
New Braunsfels=104
College Station=104
IAH and Hooks=99

[Portastorm]

Broke another daily high record here in Austin. We hit 105. Record was 103 from 2008. The heat goes on ...

[srainhoutx]

Large forest fire burning in Trinity County as seen on 88D and visible images. Several hundred acres now burned.

This is the worst fire weather I have ever seen across SE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's hope the Cockroach Ridge finally breaks down so we get rain.

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances are looking better by the day. The Canadian and GFS now appear to be the outliers with moving the frontal trough off the Coast too quickly while the more sensible Euro solution keeps rain chances going at least for Coastal areas into next weekend. Interesting to note that the Euro is also suggesting some tropical mischief in the longer range in the Bay of Campeche. Boundaries draped near the Gulf are worth watching this time of year, IMO.

[srainhoutx]

The HPC just updated the 5 day QPF charts. Fingers crossed...

[srainhoutx]

A wide view of all the tropical activity/moisture, both in the EPAC and NW Caribbean. The 12Z WRF suggests a lot of moisture across Coastal TX/LA and a frontal boundary draped across N Central TX on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very wet pattern developing across the Western Gulf. While rainfall totals look to be in the 1-2 inch range for Coastal areas, scattered showers/storms look like a good bet of more inland locales. What is also interesting is that the GFS has joined the Euro in suggesting tropical mischief may well be ahead near the 28th. Our long dry pattern may be coming to an end.

[Rip76]

Srain, from what you're seeing now (pattern wise), are buying into
this?

[srainhoutx]

Model support is growing, Rip76. After months of nothing but dry, I do remain cautiously optimistic that a real pattern change may be ahead. That said, there are suggestions of an MJO pulse that the UKMET has been sniffing and support is slowly trending that way from the GFS and Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see TC genesis near the end of June/first part of July for the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf. We will see.

[ticka1]

has jeff come out with any new updates? it will be nice to see a change if it happens. Will wait and see what the forecasts for Monday and Tuesday show for us....

[Ptarmigan]

EURO predicts a stronger disturbance at the end of June.

[srainhoutx]

Yikes...

GRIMES COUNTY, Texas—Several fire departments responded to a wildfire that grew to 300 acres in Grimes County on Sunday.

The Texas Forest Service said the fire started near Pappas Road in Grimes County, which is just south of Stoneham and southwest of Plantersville. South Brazos County Fire units, Grimes County fire departments, along with the Texas and U.S. Forest Service were fighting the blaze.

The Texas Forest Service said the blaze destroyed 20 homes and was threatening 100 more. No injuries were reported.

http://www.khou.com/news/local/Large-fa ... 62954.html

[srainhoutx]

The 'new' NAM has started. Perhaps an eye on that meso model, since we have a boundary evolved in the mix, would be appropriate. Fingers crossed. We need some rain for the fire threat...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/

[jasons2k]

Yikes...

GRIMES COUNTY, Texas—Several fire departments responded to a wildfire that grew to 300 acres in Grimes County on Sunday./quote]

You could see the smoke plume on radar too...

[weatherguy425]

Good sign that those typical ngiht time showers are starting to fire offshore and along the coast.