July 2025
Late Thursday and Friday, we should see a mid-upper inverted
trof, and maybe a weak surface reflection, make its way into the
region from the east. This will bring a return to the soupy 2.4"
PW`s, increased cloudiness, slightly lower daytime temps, and
higher chances of rain across parts of the area into Saturday.
Late Saturday into early next week, a strengthening H5 ridge
takes shape over the Plains. Though heights will build locally,
we`ll still be in the easterlies on its southern periphery. And
with some residual 1.7-2.1" PW`s remaining in the vicinity,
suspect we`ll see a "typical" summertime diurnally driven precip
pattern with some isolated-scattered shra/tstms each day the
closer one gets to the coast. 47
One thing is for sure about Texas weather. It has a tendency to get stuck in modes/patterns. These easterlies as a consequence of heights/ mid to high level highs north of us could continue for awhile.
Looks like a repeat of last weekend. I think the moisture could slip a little west...with a bigger impact in Texas. Nothing major, but 1-2 inches possible. Beaumont's mileage may vary.
99°F here today. Will probably roll triple digits tomorrow. 
I HATE Summer
With a passion.
With a passion.
96°F here. That midlevel low is still spinning around central to north Texas with training rain near Eagle Pass and Del Rio. We've been getting just a bit of cloud cover and a some breeze. Hot, but it's been a lot worse.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
- Continued hot with little chances of rain thru most of Thurs.
Heat index values may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria at
times.
- Chances of precipitation return to the forecast late Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
With surface and upper level ridging in the area, temperatures
will remain on the hot side and rain chances very low-nil the next
few days. Heat index/stress values may flirt with advisory criteria,
but suspect we might see just enough daytime dry air mixing
whereas we might be able to skirt out of having to push one out.
But regardless, heat safety protocols should be followed if
planning to work/play outdoors.
Late Thursday and Friday, we should see a mid-upper inverted
trof, and maybe a weak surface reflection, make its way into the
region from the east. This will bring a return to the soupy 2.4"
PW`s, increased cloudiness, slightly lower daytime temps, and
higher chances of rain across parts of the area into Saturday.
Late Saturday into early next week, a strengthening H5 ridge
takes shape over the Plains. Though heights will build locally,
we`ll still be in the easterlies on its southern periphery. And
with some residual 1.7-2.1" PW`s remaining in the vicinity,
suspect we`ll see a "typical" summertime diurnally driven precip
pattern with some isolated-scattered shra/tstms each day the
closer one gets to the coast. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Largely VFR and winds more-or-less southerly 5-10 kts for this
cycle. Length of TAFs largely due to handling diurnal cycle of
winds, a little more west of south early, become more
southeasterly in the afternoon. Potential for scraps of fog or low
clouds late tonight, but very low confidence in impact to merit a
change in flight category at any site. At most, I have a SCT012 at
CLL around dawn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Light winds and low seas should prevail for the next several days.
Rain chances will be low into Thursday with high pressure in the
area. As weak low pressure moves toward the northwest Gulf coast
late Thursday, precipitation chances will increase continue as we
head into the weekend. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 80 92 / 0 0 0 10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
- Continued hot with little chances of rain thru most of Thurs.
Heat index values may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria at
times.
- Chances of precipitation return to the forecast late Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
With surface and upper level ridging in the area, temperatures
will remain on the hot side and rain chances very low-nil the next
few days. Heat index/stress values may flirt with advisory criteria,
but suspect we might see just enough daytime dry air mixing
whereas we might be able to skirt out of having to push one out.
But regardless, heat safety protocols should be followed if
planning to work/play outdoors.
Late Thursday and Friday, we should see a mid-upper inverted
trof, and maybe a weak surface reflection, make its way into the
region from the east. This will bring a return to the soupy 2.4"
PW`s, increased cloudiness, slightly lower daytime temps, and
higher chances of rain across parts of the area into Saturday.
Late Saturday into early next week, a strengthening H5 ridge
takes shape over the Plains. Though heights will build locally,
we`ll still be in the easterlies on its southern periphery. And
with some residual 1.7-2.1" PW`s remaining in the vicinity,
suspect we`ll see a "typical" summertime diurnally driven precip
pattern with some isolated-scattered shra/tstms each day the
closer one gets to the coast. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Largely VFR and winds more-or-less southerly 5-10 kts for this
cycle. Length of TAFs largely due to handling diurnal cycle of
winds, a little more west of south early, become more
southeasterly in the afternoon. Potential for scraps of fog or low
clouds late tonight, but very low confidence in impact to merit a
change in flight category at any site. At most, I have a SCT012 at
CLL around dawn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Light winds and low seas should prevail for the next several days.
Rain chances will be low into Thursday with high pressure in the
area. As weak low pressure moves toward the northwest Gulf coast
late Thursday, precipitation chances will increase continue as we
head into the weekend. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 80 92 / 0 0 0 10
Get yer lemonade...right here.
- Attachments
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- 518397035_1289442482539086_8127649996330210069_n.jpg (124.89 KiB) Viewed 742 times
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
239
FXUS64 KHGX 231123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
- Hot and humid conditions today and tomorrow with peak heat index
values averaging in the 104 to 107 range.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase late Thursday into Friday
as a disturbance approaches from the east.
- NHC is monitoring the system for possible gradual development.
But the disturbance is currently very disorganized. More in the
discussion below!
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
A large mid/upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather
today into tomorrow, keeping afternoon highs well into the 90s and
heat index values in the triple digits. Temperatures in a few hot
spots may reach 100 or 101 degrees. So it will be sizzling out
there! We continue to think that dew points will mix down somewhat
during the afternoon, technically keeping heat index values just
below advisory criteria. That being said, the heat will be
hazardous enough to warrant heat safety. So y`all know the drill,
drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC if
working outside, don`t leave kids and animals in the car, wear
light colored clothing, and whatnot.
If you happen to gander at CONUS-wide satellite imagery, you`ll
clearly see the aforementioned ridge dominating the weather from
Texas to most of the Mississippi River Valley. But what you`ll
also see is a disorganized, somewhat cyclonic system producing
scattered thunderstorms over Florida, southern Georgia, and
southern Alabama. This mid/low level trough is expected to find
its way into the eastern Gulf by Wednesday. Conditions are
somewhat favorable for gradually development of the system as it
drifts westward across the Gulf. Model guidance isn`t too excited
about this system, keeping it pretty disorganized during its Gulf
journey. That being said, the Gulf is hot and the month is July.
So the disturbance still warrants our attention. As of writing
this discussion, NHC is giving the system a 10 percent chance of
development into a tropical depression.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring a surge
of deep tropical moisture our way by late Thursday through
Saturday and potentially into Sunday. Thus, rain and thunderstorm
chances are relatively high by week`s end. Any surge of tropical
moisture brings the risk of heavy rainfall. For now, WPC has
placed much of our region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall capable of localized flooding. Beyond the
weekend, long range guidance suggests the return of lower rain
chances and hotter temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
VFR conditions will again prevail today with south to
southeasterly winds around 7-10kt. Patchy fog and low CIGs will be
possible tonight at SGR and LBX through dawn Thursday morning.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Hot and dry conditions with light to occasionally moderate winds
and low seas are expected today. These conditions are likely to
continue into tomorrow. However, the outer edges of a weak,
disorganized tropical disturbances may bring showers and
thunderstorms offshore as early as Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm
chances increase further Thursday night, and remain elevated
through at least Saturday. The presence of thunderstorms
complicates the winds and seas forecast somewhat. General winds
and seas are not forecast to increase during the Friday-Saturday
time frame. However, locally higher winds and seas would be likely
in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
The aforementioned system is being monitored by NHC for possible
slow development as it pushes westward over the Gulf. As of now,
the system is quite disorganized. NHC is giving it a 10 percent
chance of developing into a tropical depression. Mariners are
advised to check the forecast for updates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 97 79 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 92 81 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 231123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
- Hot and humid conditions today and tomorrow with peak heat index
values averaging in the 104 to 107 range.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase late Thursday into Friday
as a disturbance approaches from the east.
- NHC is monitoring the system for possible gradual development.
But the disturbance is currently very disorganized. More in the
discussion below!
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
A large mid/upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather
today into tomorrow, keeping afternoon highs well into the 90s and
heat index values in the triple digits. Temperatures in a few hot
spots may reach 100 or 101 degrees. So it will be sizzling out
there! We continue to think that dew points will mix down somewhat
during the afternoon, technically keeping heat index values just
below advisory criteria. That being said, the heat will be
hazardous enough to warrant heat safety. So y`all know the drill,
drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC if
working outside, don`t leave kids and animals in the car, wear
light colored clothing, and whatnot.
If you happen to gander at CONUS-wide satellite imagery, you`ll
clearly see the aforementioned ridge dominating the weather from
Texas to most of the Mississippi River Valley. But what you`ll
also see is a disorganized, somewhat cyclonic system producing
scattered thunderstorms over Florida, southern Georgia, and
southern Alabama. This mid/low level trough is expected to find
its way into the eastern Gulf by Wednesday. Conditions are
somewhat favorable for gradually development of the system as it
drifts westward across the Gulf. Model guidance isn`t too excited
about this system, keeping it pretty disorganized during its Gulf
journey. That being said, the Gulf is hot and the month is July.
So the disturbance still warrants our attention. As of writing
this discussion, NHC is giving the system a 10 percent chance of
development into a tropical depression.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring a surge
of deep tropical moisture our way by late Thursday through
Saturday and potentially into Sunday. Thus, rain and thunderstorm
chances are relatively high by week`s end. Any surge of tropical
moisture brings the risk of heavy rainfall. For now, WPC has
placed much of our region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall capable of localized flooding. Beyond the
weekend, long range guidance suggests the return of lower rain
chances and hotter temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
VFR conditions will again prevail today with south to
southeasterly winds around 7-10kt. Patchy fog and low CIGs will be
possible tonight at SGR and LBX through dawn Thursday morning.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Hot and dry conditions with light to occasionally moderate winds
and low seas are expected today. These conditions are likely to
continue into tomorrow. However, the outer edges of a weak,
disorganized tropical disturbances may bring showers and
thunderstorms offshore as early as Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm
chances increase further Thursday night, and remain elevated
through at least Saturday. The presence of thunderstorms
complicates the winds and seas forecast somewhat. General winds
and seas are not forecast to increase during the Friday-Saturday
time frame. However, locally higher winds and seas would be likely
in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
The aforementioned system is being monitored by NHC for possible
slow development as it pushes westward over the Gulf. As of now,
the system is quite disorganized. NHC is giving it a 10 percent
chance of developing into a tropical depression. Mariners are
advised to check the forecast for updates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 97 79 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 92 81 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
IAH hit 100 yesterday but you wouldn’t know it by reading today’s discussion and forecast. They’re rolling with 97 when today’s thermal profile is hotter. 
NWS has increased the chance of rain for CLL and HOU on Saturday with our retrograde lemonade drifting west.
Today looks like a high heat index day. 97-98°F DP at 77°F. Nasty.
Today looks like a high heat index day. 97-98°F DP at 77°F. Nasty.
Got up to 99 on my weather station yesterday in League City. Watered front courtyard plants in the morning and they were still wilting badly in the afternoon. It's been brutal. Thank God we haven't dealt with this kind of heat much at all this Summer thus far.
I feel your pain.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 23, 2025 9:16 am Got up to 99 on my weather station yesterday in League City. Watered front courtyard plants in the morning and they were still wilting badly in the afternoon. It's been brutal. Thank God we haven't dealt with this kind of heat much at all this Summer thus far.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
834
FXUS64 KHGX 231828
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
- Hot and humid conditions again tomorrow with peak heat index
values averaging in the 104 to 108 range.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday evening into
Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the east.
- NHC is monitoring the system for possible gradual development.
But the disturbance is currently very disorganized.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Mid-upper level ridging extending from the Carolinas across the Deep
South and into east Texas will provide one more hot day across the
region on Thurs with highs again flirting with the triple digits.
We`ve been managing to mix out just enough drier air in the
afternoons to keep heat indices mostly below the 108F Heat Advsy
criteria, and the hope is we can do it one more time. Regardless,
it`s plenty uncomfortable out there and encourage those outdoors to
take the usual heat precautions. Unless we see some trends that
point otherwise later this afternoon, the plan is to forgo a Heat
Advsy for Thurs and let the night crew take another glance at
things.
Inverted trof is situated south of the ridge mentioned
above...roughly from the northern Caribbean across Cuba-FL-and into
the Atlantic. This feature will track westward toward the TX and
western Gulf Coast Fri-Sat. Currently, there`s some associated
unsettled wx, albeit quite unorganized, to the east and west of
the axis. NHC continues to keep an eye on things as some guidance
indicates the potential for a weak surface reflection/low to
develop (and that`s just a subset of all the available ensembles).
So more or less, we`re currently looking at an axis of deeper
Gulf moisture to begin making its way into the region from the
east late Thurs (evening- ish) bringing some iso-sct precip around
the Galveston Bay area. Eventually higher PW air makes it into
most of the area Friday and Saturday when we should see more
cloudiness, lower daytime highs, and better rain chances across SE
Tx.
Ridging should gradually build back into the region from the
east/northeast later in the weekend and into next week.
Corresponding rain chances trend down and temps back up. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
VFR conditions will again prevail today with south to
southeasterly winds around 7-10kt. Patchy fog and low CIGs will be
possible tonight at SGR and LBX through dawn Thursday morning.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Light to occasionally moderate s/sw winds and low seas will
prevail the next few days...becoming more southerly this weekend.
A weak trough will push toward the Western Gulf and Texas coast
late Thursday into the weekend bringing periods of unsettled
weather. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 95 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 78 99 79 93 / 0 0 10 70
Galveston (GLS) 81 92 81 89 / 0 0 40 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 231828
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
- Hot and humid conditions again tomorrow with peak heat index
values averaging in the 104 to 108 range.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday evening into
Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the east.
- NHC is monitoring the system for possible gradual development.
But the disturbance is currently very disorganized.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Mid-upper level ridging extending from the Carolinas across the Deep
South and into east Texas will provide one more hot day across the
region on Thurs with highs again flirting with the triple digits.
We`ve been managing to mix out just enough drier air in the
afternoons to keep heat indices mostly below the 108F Heat Advsy
criteria, and the hope is we can do it one more time. Regardless,
it`s plenty uncomfortable out there and encourage those outdoors to
take the usual heat precautions. Unless we see some trends that
point otherwise later this afternoon, the plan is to forgo a Heat
Advsy for Thurs and let the night crew take another glance at
things.
Inverted trof is situated south of the ridge mentioned
above...roughly from the northern Caribbean across Cuba-FL-and into
the Atlantic. This feature will track westward toward the TX and
western Gulf Coast Fri-Sat. Currently, there`s some associated
unsettled wx, albeit quite unorganized, to the east and west of
the axis. NHC continues to keep an eye on things as some guidance
indicates the potential for a weak surface reflection/low to
develop (and that`s just a subset of all the available ensembles).
So more or less, we`re currently looking at an axis of deeper
Gulf moisture to begin making its way into the region from the
east late Thurs (evening- ish) bringing some iso-sct precip around
the Galveston Bay area. Eventually higher PW air makes it into
most of the area Friday and Saturday when we should see more
cloudiness, lower daytime highs, and better rain chances across SE
Tx.
Ridging should gradually build back into the region from the
east/northeast later in the weekend and into next week.
Corresponding rain chances trend down and temps back up. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
VFR conditions will again prevail today with south to
southeasterly winds around 7-10kt. Patchy fog and low CIGs will be
possible tonight at SGR and LBX through dawn Thursday morning.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Light to occasionally moderate s/sw winds and low seas will
prevail the next few days...becoming more southerly this weekend.
A weak trough will push toward the Western Gulf and Texas coast
late Thursday into the weekend bringing periods of unsettled
weather. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 95 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 78 99 79 93 / 0 0 10 70
Galveston (GLS) 81 92 81 89 / 0 0 40 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5466
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS is showing a pretty stormy/ cooler pattern for se texas starting late next week and beyond, stalled frontal boundary and plenty of moisture being transported from the gulf and caribbean
Might warrant a homebrew “Ruh roh” with the death ridge being absent.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 23, 2025 5:34 pm GFS is showing a pretty stormy/ cooler pattern for se texas starting late next week and beyond, stalled frontal boundary and plenty of moisture being transported from the gulf and caribbean
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
569
FXUS64 KHGX 241124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
- Hot and humid today with peak heat index values averaging in the
104 to 108 range. Locally higher heat indices possible.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase this evening/tonight,
with enhanced shower/thunderstorm chances lasting through
Saturday.
- The increasing rain chances are a function of a Gulf disturbance
being monitored by NHC for possible gradual development. But the
disturbance is currently very disorganized. See tropical
discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Mid/upper ridging remains dominate across our region today.
However, deep tropical moisture associated with a low/mid level
trough (see Tropical Discussion below), is already seeping into
the western Gulf. I tend to think we will have another very hot
and humid day with highs well into the 90s (locally around 100)
and heat index values nearing advisory criteria. But if the
approaching clouds from the east arrived earlier, I could see
parts of our area being a tad less hot than my forecast suggests.
In addition, we did manage to have a few isolated sea breeze
showers on Wednesday. Considering our atmosphere may already be
feeling some influence from the trough today, I opted to add a
slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower for areas just north
and west of Galveston Bay. Now let`s get into the wetter part of
the forecast.
Thunderstorm activity from the aforementioned disturbance may
impact areas offshore as early as this afternoon. CAMs guidance
suggest that our southeastern counties could experience a few
showers and thunderstorms by this evening. Rainfall chances really
ramp up near the coast and offshore after midnight tonight. By
Friday, this plume of deep tropical moisture should push far
inland. Before I go on about the showers/storms, there is a heat
wild card for our northernmost counties on Friday. With deep
tropical moisture in place, dew points are less likely to mix
downward, thus remaining elevated all day. If high cloud coverage,
showers, and thunderstorms can hold off long enough, then our
northernmost Piney Woods counties could reach heat advisory
criteria. For now, that`s a big `IF.` Now back to the rain.
A surge of 2.50 - 3.00 inch PWATs and ample lift will likely bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.
Considering the moisture profile, I`d say locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms are a good bet. Therefore, there is a chance of
localized flooding on both days. Global ensemble means suggest the
best chance of heavy rainfall will be across our southern and
coastal counties. PWATs decrease on Sunday, but lingering showers
and thunderstorms remain in the forecast.
The early outlook for Monday and Tuesday features the trough`s
departure to our west, and the return of mid/upper ridging. That
suggests hotter temperatures and lower PoPs for early next week.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Patchy fog and low CIGs around 1000ft have developed this morning
mainly across the southeastern and northern portions of the
region, impacting SGR, LBX, and CXO. These conditions will quickly
end after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions and southerly winds
around 6-10kt through the day across the region.
A disturbance approaching from the east will begin to cause
scattered showers along the coast late tonight with activity
reaching the I-10 corridor (including IAH) by Friday morning.
Expected continued scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
IAH southwards through the day on Friday, into Saturday, with
isolated activity possible again on Sunday. Our northern sites
(CLL, UTS, and possibly CXO) may only see isolated showers through
Sunday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
A disturbance approaching from the east may bring a few showers
and thunderstorms to the Gulf waters as early as this afternoon.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases further during
the evening and overnight hours. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain likely through Friday and Saturday,
before the pattern turns drier early next week. Winds are expected
to be generally onshore and light to moderate. Seas are forecast
to be 2 to 3 feet. There are two wild cards regarding winds and
seas. 1) The presence of thunderstorms late Thursday - Saturday
could result in locally much higher winds and seas in the vicinity
of any thunderstorm. 2) Recent global runs suggest a tighter
pressure gradient Saturday night into Sunday morning, resulting in
winds about 5 knots higher than the current forecast.
For details on the tropical disturbance, check out the tropical
discussion below.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a trough that
is drifting westward across the Gulf. The system is producing a
large region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central Gulf and across portions of the Deep South. Model
guidance support for development is pretty low. That being said,
any low/mid level trough over the Gulf this time of year should
monitored closely. Chance of development as per NHC remains 10
percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 95 76 / 0 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 97 79 92 78 / 0 20 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 89 81 / 10 50 90 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 241124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
- Hot and humid today with peak heat index values averaging in the
104 to 108 range. Locally higher heat indices possible.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase this evening/tonight,
with enhanced shower/thunderstorm chances lasting through
Saturday.
- The increasing rain chances are a function of a Gulf disturbance
being monitored by NHC for possible gradual development. But the
disturbance is currently very disorganized. See tropical
discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Mid/upper ridging remains dominate across our region today.
However, deep tropical moisture associated with a low/mid level
trough (see Tropical Discussion below), is already seeping into
the western Gulf. I tend to think we will have another very hot
and humid day with highs well into the 90s (locally around 100)
and heat index values nearing advisory criteria. But if the
approaching clouds from the east arrived earlier, I could see
parts of our area being a tad less hot than my forecast suggests.
In addition, we did manage to have a few isolated sea breeze
showers on Wednesday. Considering our atmosphere may already be
feeling some influence from the trough today, I opted to add a
slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower for areas just north
and west of Galveston Bay. Now let`s get into the wetter part of
the forecast.
Thunderstorm activity from the aforementioned disturbance may
impact areas offshore as early as this afternoon. CAMs guidance
suggest that our southeastern counties could experience a few
showers and thunderstorms by this evening. Rainfall chances really
ramp up near the coast and offshore after midnight tonight. By
Friday, this plume of deep tropical moisture should push far
inland. Before I go on about the showers/storms, there is a heat
wild card for our northernmost counties on Friday. With deep
tropical moisture in place, dew points are less likely to mix
downward, thus remaining elevated all day. If high cloud coverage,
showers, and thunderstorms can hold off long enough, then our
northernmost Piney Woods counties could reach heat advisory
criteria. For now, that`s a big `IF.` Now back to the rain.
A surge of 2.50 - 3.00 inch PWATs and ample lift will likely bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.
Considering the moisture profile, I`d say locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms are a good bet. Therefore, there is a chance of
localized flooding on both days. Global ensemble means suggest the
best chance of heavy rainfall will be across our southern and
coastal counties. PWATs decrease on Sunday, but lingering showers
and thunderstorms remain in the forecast.
The early outlook for Monday and Tuesday features the trough`s
departure to our west, and the return of mid/upper ridging. That
suggests hotter temperatures and lower PoPs for early next week.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Patchy fog and low CIGs around 1000ft have developed this morning
mainly across the southeastern and northern portions of the
region, impacting SGR, LBX, and CXO. These conditions will quickly
end after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions and southerly winds
around 6-10kt through the day across the region.
A disturbance approaching from the east will begin to cause
scattered showers along the coast late tonight with activity
reaching the I-10 corridor (including IAH) by Friday morning.
Expected continued scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
IAH southwards through the day on Friday, into Saturday, with
isolated activity possible again on Sunday. Our northern sites
(CLL, UTS, and possibly CXO) may only see isolated showers through
Sunday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
A disturbance approaching from the east may bring a few showers
and thunderstorms to the Gulf waters as early as this afternoon.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases further during
the evening and overnight hours. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain likely through Friday and Saturday,
before the pattern turns drier early next week. Winds are expected
to be generally onshore and light to moderate. Seas are forecast
to be 2 to 3 feet. There are two wild cards regarding winds and
seas. 1) The presence of thunderstorms late Thursday - Saturday
could result in locally much higher winds and seas in the vicinity
of any thunderstorm. 2) Recent global runs suggest a tighter
pressure gradient Saturday night into Sunday morning, resulting in
winds about 5 knots higher than the current forecast.
For details on the tropical disturbance, check out the tropical
discussion below.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a trough that
is drifting westward across the Gulf. The system is producing a
large region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central Gulf and across portions of the Deep South. Model
guidance support for development is pretty low. That being said,
any low/mid level trough over the Gulf this time of year should
monitored closely. Chance of development as per NHC remains 10
percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 95 76 / 0 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 97 79 92 78 / 0 20 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 89 81 / 10 50 90 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
The Euro is on board with a FROPA sliding toward Texas in early August.
After Lemon Dexter 2.0 bumps into Texas, and drops some showers mostly east of I-45 (we're hopeful in the Brazos Valley), we'll have a Week of Suck, then a decent chance of a FROPA stall or passage.
I'm generally a pessimist about Summers in Texas, especially in College Station,, but we're consistently near the edge of ridge formation. there have been prevailing easterlies. We're freakin' due to a less horrid summer. Just one month now until CFB.
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