Wx Infinity Forums

Claudette, Katdaddy? LOL

tireman4 wrote:Claudette, Katdaddy? LOL

Katdaddy it is Chantal and I think he hadn't had his morning coffee or workout? LOL

The shower was a quick mover! Better than nothing!:)

Tiny shower today dropped another .04" - I'm up to .69" for July now. It's a slow improvement but I could really use an nice 1"+ soaker to really water everything good. I hope this next hot/dry spell is short and doesn't drag on for extra days like the last one - we'll see...if the NWS's definition of "LATER IN THE WEEKEND" = this SUNDAY and not Thursday or Friday of next week, that's doable.

Houston NWS Disco:
Yay rain...
and a cool front?

MODELS STILL HINTING AT BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FRI EVNG/SAT. IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE WE`LL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THAT
BOUNDARY & THE SEABREEZE - ESP FRI EVNG/NIGHT AFTER HIGHS PEAK
NEAR 100.

The GFS suggests some increased moisture by the weekend and a mid/upper low moving W across the Gulf. That should pull some deeper tropical moisture further N from the Caribbean bringing increased rain chances along that stalled frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast into next week. We will see.

Funnel clouds?


http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weath ... cmpid=hpbn

Some nice dark clouds forming overhead Most likely my yard won't get any rain but someone north of here may get a nice shower later in the day.

Not sure about rain but it is hot as hell outside in Montgomery. Good grief!!

Well...lets knock on wood - rain will be more prevalent (and actually produce)

Houston NWS disco:

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS & ECMWF STILL BACKDOOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN & EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE FRI & SAT. THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF
SHRA/TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FRI EVNG AFTER PEAK HEATING. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND SHOULD TEMPORALLY MAKE FOR COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS NE/NRN PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE 1ST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY THAT`LL BE POSITIONED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE UNDERCUT BY A WWD MOVING UPPER LOW (NOW NEAR FLORIDA STRAITS)
AND INTO THE TX COAST LATE SAT OR SUNDAY. WHILE WE`LL TAKE ANY
RAIN WE CAN GET...I`M STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PW`S NEARBY
WHICH ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY ARE TODAY. ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE SOME MORE FAVORABLE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MIGHT BE
AVAILABLE WITH A 2ND UPPER LOW PENCILED IN FOR DAYS 7-10. KNOCK
ON WOOD. 47

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Turns Positive
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... s.html?m=1

The PDO is a big factor for rainfall. A warm PDO is more favorable for wetter years in Texas, while cool PDO is more likely to see droughts. The reason we are dry is that the PDO is in a cool phase. The 1990s was wet because of a warm PDO.

If the PDO goes warm, it would be good for Texas in the rainfall department.

Article on the PDO indicates a short positive phase. How long do these phase changes typically last? Would be great if it brought higher rain chances...if nothing changes soon, I expect that local municipalities will be initiating/upgrading/tightening water restrictions in the area.

PaulEInHouston wrote:Article on the PDO indicates a short positive phase. How long do these phase changes typically last? Would be great if it brought higher rain chances...if nothing changes soon, I expect that local municipalities will be initiating/upgrading/tightening water restrictions in the area.

Hard to say if the warm phase is trending or not.

I have seen short term warm PDO like in late 2009 to early 2010 due to El Nino. There was a period of warm PDO from 2002 to 2007, which would explain why it was wetter that time.

I believe we have been in a negative PDO regime for the past 19-20 months. While it is too soon to know how the recent trends will actually develop, it is a sign that perhaps there is a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We will see.

There's some buzz about values dropping sharply, during June, after their brief positive spike in May.

Link to monthly values:
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Did indeed drop significantly after a brief positive spike.

srainhoutx wrote:I believe we have been in a negative PDO regime for the past 19-20 months. While it is too soon to know how the recent trends will actually develop, it is a sign that perhaps there is a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We will see.

Another thing I have noticed is that we have had no El Nino since 2010. The longest stretch without El Nino was from 1998 to 2002. We have not had a strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino since 1997-1998. There have been strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino during cool PDO, in 1918-1919. Even during the brief warm PDO of 2002 to 2007, there was no strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino. There were more El Ninos during that period: 2002-2003, 2004-2005, and 2006-2007. La Nina occurred in that period in 2005-2006.

Very interesting reading and learning about these anomalies and how they collaboratively affect the weather and patterns. I know it sounds "strange" maybe to some, but the real "continuing" drought for Texas it appears really began right after Ike's landfall in '08. Does anyone think that Ike, a storm of such abnormal size and magnitude, may have had anything to do with where we are today drought/pattern-wise? Might make an interesting study from a climatological standpoint to be honest!

There is hope! I liked this tidbit about next week from today's AFD:

"THE "NORMAL" SE TX SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF OLD"

Ed, I'm hopeful too but I'm concerned the advancing sea breeze may undercut the unstable air ahead of them before they get here. Either that or they spit-out an outflow and then do the staggered develop/collapse/reform pattern that always seems to skip over me. We'll see...

Complete comedy.