August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Rip76]

Joe Bastardi on Twitter.

"Weather doesnt stop cause of the eclipse..Harvey likely to ramp up as fast as Franklin did once leaving Yucatan. Texas should pay attention."

[cperk]

Joe Bastardi on Twitter.

"Weather doesnt stop cause of the eclipse..Harvey likely to ramp up as fast as Franklin did once leaving Yucatan. Texas should pay attention."

And that we on this forum will.

[Rip76]

nuts


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html

[DoctorMu]

nuts


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html

GFS and GEFS ensemble see potential devastating rain in the Hill Country. Can't titrate mother nature, unfortunately.






HWRF has Harvey striking just south of the Valley.



Eyes peeled.

[brooksgarner]

We are monitoring the flooding threat late this week for south/central Texas as the remnant tropical wave of Harvey is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone... As of today (Monday 8/21/17) EURO and GFS ensembles point to a south Texas solution as of latest runs, but that could change. For Houston we're more concerned about heavy rainfall potential from remnants of Harvey early next week, less so of an acute wind threat... yet.

GFS ENSEMBLE

gefs_AL09_2017082112.png

EURO ENSEMBLE

eps_AL09_2017082100.png

-Brooks
p.s. What a wild partial eclipse we all enjoyed!!

[jeff]

12Z ECWMF...eeek!

Shows massive rains with peak accumulations of 32 inches over portions of SE/SC TX. A tropical system moving up from the SSE into a frontal zone should be of concern in this state.

Even if the landfall is over NE MX...we have seen many times the real disaster is over TX from inland flooding.

[Rip76]

Hmmmm.

[Scott747]

18z gfs is further n at hr 60.....

[Scott747]

Decent weakness with a more wnw/nw heading. Looks like this run will have a lower Texas coast hit.

[Scott747]

Decent weakness with a more wnw/nw heading. Looks like this run will have a lower Texas coast hit.

Off Corpus at hr 96 as a borderline cane and further weakness. Should slide up the coast just inland.

The trend is now clear...

[stormlover]

Wow gfs keeps coming north!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=96

[ticka1]

is it bear watch time?

[Rip76]

[Scott747]

One thing to note. With this type of setup and potential heading. It wouldn't take much for this to go from a Brownsville landfall to something closer to our neck of the woods.

With that said... We don't even have a defined circulation, just broad energy that has yet to even cross the Yucatan. Plenty of factors can change.

[Texaspirate11]

There are some models that take it to NOLA too.
But, I planned all summer for my Mommas 90th birthday party in Corpus
cuz I'm thinking "Really...when was the last time they here hit...."
Smack me silly.....

[cperk]

One thing to note. With this type of setup and potential heading. It wouldn't take much for this to go from a Brownsville landfall to something closer to our neck of the woods.

With that said... We don't even have a defined circulation, just broad energy that has yet to even cross the Yucatan. Plenty of factors can change.

I totally agree that we need more model runs,but after tomorrow we will be getting inside four days until a landfall.If the models continue this northern shift tonight and through tomorrow then we will need to elevate our concern.

[stormlover]

Navy18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=20

[cperk]

Navy18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=20

Right up the spine of Houston/Galveston on that run.Gonna be interesting to see how the NHC adjust the cone on the next update.

[Rip76]

This place should be jumping tomorrow.

[Rip76]

When is the next TWO?