July 2025

[DoctorMu]

50-60% chance of rain Friday late/Saturday. I think the ghost of Dexters past has a better chance of more widespread rains in SETX vs. mini-Dexter 1.0.

The ridging next week won't last long as the ridging has been transient all summer, moving east to west...and even stratton can see a FROPA potentially taking advantage of our weak ridging...

Naturally, the caveat as Pas Bon mentioned and downside is a GoM/A potentially open for business deeper into August (that's why we don't rename a large body of bath water. Don't tempt Mother Nature!)


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
111 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

- Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances increase Friday and
Saturday across SE TX. Chances taper down somewhat Sunday.

- Drier and hot weather returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

GOES Total PW loop shows the axis of higher PW air along the
leading edge of the weak tropical disturbance and inverted mid-
upper level trof beginning to move into east Texas. Wouldn`t doubt
if we see some late afternoon or evening isolated to scattered
precip try to develop east of I-45 as temperatures climb in
advance. NHC continues to keep an eye on the broad low pressure
area for any slow development, but time will be limited before it
pushes inland later Friday and early Saturday. Current chances of
development are sitting around 10%.

We`ll probably see some shra/tstm development offshore and near
the coast overnight...with scattered activity eventually
spreading inland during the day Friday as we get some heating.
NASA Sport Soil Moisture data shows relatively dry conditions
along the coast, so the bulk of the rainfall should mostly be
beneficial in nature...but always need to be cognizant of the
deeper 2.5" PW`s which could be capable of producing some
localized issues in association with any high rain rates in a
short time period.

Deepest moisture begins lifting inland Saturday, but there should
still be plenty enough for higher end scattered precip activity
across the region...followed by less overall coverage on Sunday.

Ridge builds back in from the ENE headed into early next week
and should bring a return of the hot/muggy conditions. Some guidance,
but not all, suggests the potential for another weak trof skirting
westward under the ridge toward our area Wed-Thur next week which
might provide the next shot of rainfall. Have some 20-30% POPs . [MOAR easterlies] in
the fcst for placeholders right now that can be adjusted upward/downward
once we see a better model consensus emerge. 47

&&

[DoctorMu]

ummmmmmm...early arrival?

[DoctorMu]

Mesos and Euro are mostly seeing a turn north tomorrow and action mostly East of I-45. Another day with cells getting with 10 miles and bust. We'll see.

[Rip76]

ummmmmmm...early arrival?

Very. Just looked at radar (traveling)
And offshore

[Stratton20]

Looking good for rainfall around here through the early parts of august

[tireman4]

194
FXUS64 KHGX 241811
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
111 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

- Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances increase Friday and
Saturday across SE TX. Chances taper down somewhat Sunday.

- Drier and hot weather returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

GOES Total PW loop shows the axis of higher PW air along the
leading edge of the weak tropical disturbance and inverted mid-
upper level trof beginning to move into east Texas. Wouldn`t doubt
if we see some late afternoon or evening isolated to scattered
precip try to develop east of I-45 as temperatures climb in
advance. NHC continues to keep an eye on the broad low pressure
area for any slow development, but time will be limited before it
pushes inland later Friday and early Saturday. Current chances of
development are sitting around 10%.

We`ll probably see some shra/tstm development offshore and near
the coast overnight...with scattered activity eventually
spreading inland during the day Friday as we get some heating.
NASA Sport Soil Moisture data shows relatively dry conditions
along the coast, so the bulk of the rainfall should mostly be
beneficial in nature...but always need to be cognizant of the
deeper 2.5" PW`s which could be capable of producing some
localized issues in association with any high rain rates in a
short time period.

Deepest moisture begins lifting inland Saturday, but there should
still be plenty enough for higher end scattered precip activity
across the region...followed by less overall coverage on Sunday.

Ridge builds back in from the ENE headed into early next week
and should bring a return of the hot/muggy conditions. Some guidance,
but not all, suggests the potential for another weak trof skirting
westward under the ridge toward our area Wed-Thur next week which
might provide the next shot of rainfall. Have some 20-30% POPs in
the fcst for placeholders right now that can be adjusted upward/downward
once we see a better model consensus emerge. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Patchy fog and low CIGs around 1000ft have developed this morning
mainly across the southeastern and northern portions of the
region, impacting SGR, LBX, and CXO. These conditions will quickly
end after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions and southerly winds
around 6-10kt through the day across the region.

A disturbance approaching from the east will begin to cause
scattered showers along the coast late tonight with activity
reaching the I-10 corridor (including IAH) by Friday morning.
Expected continued scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
IAH southwards through the day on Friday, into Saturday, with
isolated activity possible again on Sunday. Our northern sites
(CLL, UTS, and possibly CXO) may only see isolated showers through
Sunday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An axis of deeper tropical moisture associated with a tropical
disturbance will be moving into the area this evening and should
provide periods of showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight,
Friday and Saturday. NHC is monitoring the disorganized, broad
low pressure area for any slow development before it moves inland
late Friday and early Saturday, but chances are currently sitting
around 10%. Unsettled weather begin tapering downward on Sunday
followed by light to moderate onshore winds and relatively low
seas heading into next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 95 76 91 / 10 40 30 50
Houston (IAH) 79 91 77 91 / 30 60 50 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 50 60 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

[tireman4]

ummmmmmm...early arrival?

Very. Just looked at radar (traveling)
And offshore

From HGX

. Wouldn`t doubt
if we see some late afternoon or evening isolated to scattered
precip try to develop east of I-45 as temperatures climb in
advance. NHC continues to keep an eye on the broad low pressure
area for any slow development, but time will be limited before it
pushes inland later Friday and early Saturday. Current chances of
development are sitting around 10%.

We`ll probably see some shra/tstm development offshore and near
the coast overnight..

[DoctorMu]

Looking good for rainfall around here through the early parts of august

I approve this message.

(Unless it’s a hurricane). lol

[DoctorMu]

That line of showers will cross the LATX border in an hour.

[tireman4]

Could it come tonight?

[DoctorMu]

Euro, FTW. I wouldn't even think about integrating GFS at this point.

Thar she blows! Heading toward Liberty and Galveston. I assume rain chances in SETX will have diurnal variation. Hoping for a little luck up in CLL. 87°F water in the Gulf should privde fuel for some storms tomorrow and Saturday.

Man, next week is going to Suck Mightily until the prophesied FROPA makes an appearance by next weekend.

I should mention that some dry, midlevel air admixed down to the surface up in College Station. We had blue skies (no Saharan dust) and DPs down to 65°F. It actually felt pretty good this afternoon on campus.

...the bad news about lack of Saharan dust...you know.

[tireman4]

446
FXUS64 KHGX 251134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

- A disturbance in the Gulf is expected enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity today into the weekend. NHC continues to
give the system a 10 percent chance of becoming a depression.

- Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding the primary
concern.

- Drier and hot weather returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The much awaited Gulf disturbance is pushing deep tropical moisture
into southeast Texas. NHC continues to monitor the system for
possible development, giving it a 10% chance of becoming a
depression over the next day or two as it approaches the Texas
Coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are the
primary concern. PWATs in the heart of this moisture surge are
over 2.5 inches. Interestingly, the best mid/upper lift may
actually pass our area to the south. But there should be enough
lift from the LL disturbance coupled with the very high PWATs to
enhance scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over southeast
Texas today through the weekend. Locally heavier thunderstorms are
likely. The Weather Prediction Center has kept southeast Texas in
a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall capable of
localized flooding. Guidance still lean towards the best chance
of heavy rainfall occurring across our southern and coastal
counties. But PWATs will be pretty high areawide, which is why
WPC has the Level 1 of 4 risk for our entire region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances linger into Sunday. But coverage is expected
to be lower.

Before moving on to next week, I do want to bring up a note about
the heat today. As mentioned, deep tropical moisture will be present
over our area today. There is some uncertainty as to how much
shower/thunderstorm activity makes it into our northern counties. If
there`s enough sun and not much rain in our northern counties, then
heat index values could reach criteria given there is a little to no
dry air to mix down the surface. Something to watch.

A strong mid/upper ridge is expected to build over our region as the
disturbance exits to the west. The building ridge signals a shift
back to hotter temperatures and lower rain chances. For now, our
forecast features inland daytime highs in the 95 to 100 degree range
with low 90s at the coast. We are anticipating dew points to mix
down into the mid 60s to low 70s for most areas away from the coast,
which would keep heat index values below advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A weak disturbance approaching from the east is starting to cause
scattered showers and a few isolated storms along the coast.
Expect increased activity further inland through the day, with
some isolated showers possibly reaching as far north as CLL by
the late afternoon. Unfortunately, trying to time out exactly when
a shower or thunderstorm will be moving over a terminal is
difficult due to the scattered nature of the activity today. So,
have opted with most rain showers with PROB30s of thunderstorms.
Overall though, thunderstorms will be more likely at the coast
through the morning, then impacting IAH/CXO during the
afternoon/evening before a lull in the activity tonight.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
along the coast near dawn on Saturday with activity again
expanding inland through the late morning.

Generally light southeasterly winds will prevail today, but will
be variable at time due to shower activity around, and will become
gusty near thunderstorms. Some scattered low clouds around
2500-3500ft will persist with BKN to OVC mid to high level clouds.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Unsettled weather is expected today through the weekend. Though
general winds / seas are expected to be 10-15 knots / 2-3 feet,
the presence of scattered thunderstorms may result in locally
higher winds and seas through Saturday. In addition, there
continues to be some guidance suggesting a tighter gradient over
our waters on Saturday, resulting in somewhat stronger winds. In
other words, the wind forecast through Saturday is tricky.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected to be lower on Sunday. By
early next week, the pattern becomes drier and hotter, featuring
light to moderate winds and low seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 91 76 / 40 20 60 0
Houston (IAH) 92 78 91 78 / 80 50 80 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 90 84 / 90 70 70 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner
7-25-25 830am
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will work inland today through Saturday as a weak tropical disturbance moves into the upper TX coast.
No development is expected with this feature.
Most areas likely to see less than an inch of rainfall although some isolated coastal areas could see totals upwards of 2-3 inches.

[DoctorMu]

Jeff Lindner
7-25-25 830am
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will work inland today through Saturday as a weak tropical disturbance moves into the upper TX coast.
No development is expected with this feature.
Most areas likely to see less than an inch of rainfall although some isolated coastal areas could see totals upwards of 2-3 inches.

Mini-Dexter 2.0 definitely hasn't turn north yet. Should get cranking with daytime heating.


That is what I was thinking. The PWATS are over 2 right now. The convective temperatures are in the mid 80s. Ripe for development

[DoctorMu]

This mess is much farther south and west of anticipated.

Could make for an interesting Friday evening and Saturday.

[Rip76]

This mess is much farther south and west of anticipated.

Could make for an interesting Friday evening and Saturday.

Sorry, driving back from Dallas.
Interesting how?

[tireman4]

711
FXUS64 KHGX 251756
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

- Chances of showers/thunderstorms continue this weekend (highest
Saturday).

- Drier and warmer Mon-Wed followed by another weak upper
disturbance approaching the area during the 2nd part of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A weak, unorganized, broad surface is low situated off the Tx/La
coast early this afternoon producing showers and isolated storms
offshore. Further inland, things are off to a slow start...but
looking at the sat pix and seeing some breaks in the clouds, I
suspect we`ll see an increase in areal precip coverage in the
coming hours. As mentioned yesterday, most of the rain will be the
beneficial variety, but still need to keep an eye for a few
stronger cells capable of producing high rain rates in a short
time period. Some of the storms this afternoon/evening will also
be capable of producing some 25-40mph wind gusts...but again these
should be localized in nature.

Deeper Gulf moisture will linger into the area into Saturday night.
Isolated/scattered precip will be possible about any time between
now and then, but we should generally see more lulls overnight for
most inland locations before coverage expands again with a little
bit of heating Saturday.

Sunday is somewhat of a transition day where moisture levels will
be trending downward, but still enough to generate some diurnally
driven scattered activity.

Mon-Wed, ridging to our ene will expand back into the region. With
building heights, more subsidence, lower PW`s, and plenty of
sun...expect the 95-100 degree heat to make a reappearance.

And for the 3rd week in a row, we`ll likely see another disturbance/trof
rotate underneath the ridge and toward our area Thursday-ish
bringing more clouds, somewhat of a respite from the dog breath
heat, and a return of some rain chances. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A weak disturbance approaching from the east is starting to cause
scattered showers and a few isolated storms along the coast.
Expect increased activity further inland through the day, with
some isolated showers possibly reaching as far north as CLL by
the late afternoon. Unfortunately, trying to time out exactly when
a shower or thunderstorm will be moving over a terminal is
difficult due to the scattered nature of the activity today. So,
have opted with most rain showers with PROB30s of thunderstorms.
Overall though, thunderstorms will be more likely at the coast
through the morning, then impacting IAH/CXO during the
afternoon/evening before a lull in the activity tonight.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
along the coast near dawn on Saturday with activity again
expanding inland through the late morning.

Generally light southeasterly winds will prevail today, but will
be variable at time due to shower activity around, and will become
gusty near thunderstorms. Some scattered low clouds around
2500-3500ft will persist with BKN to OVC mid to high level clouds.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Broad, weak surface low pressure area situated off the SW LA and Upper
TX coast early this afternoon, we`re currently seeing some light
northerly winds in the waters. The low should move inland along
our coastline overnight, winds will swing back around to a
southerly direction and increase into the 13-20kt range along with
some building seas. Will introduce the caution flags for waters
east of Freeport late tonight into late morning Saturday. Expect
periods of showers and thunderstorms into Sunday morning with deep
Gulf moisture around. Most of the precip will be the routine
variety, though there will probably some embedded stronger cells
at times capable of producing some gusts above 30kt, lightning and
reduced visibility. High pressure will move into the NW Gulf
early next week with lower winds and seas. Will probably see a
more pronounced landbreeze/seabreeze circulation set up (offshore
wind late night & early morning, onshore direction in the
afternoon/evening). 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 89 77 93 / 30 60 20 30
Houston (IAH) 77 89 79 92 / 50 60 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 84 91 / 70 60 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CDT tonight
through Saturday morning for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

[Rip76]

Heavy rain Conroe/45 area

[DoctorMu]

This mess is much farther south and west of anticipated.

Could make for an interesting Friday evening and Saturday.

Sorry, driving back from Dallas.
Interesting how?

Up in College Station in the summer - any deviation (cooler, chance of rain) from 100°F and no rain is interesting. We're seeing waves of rain moving NW. I thought we were were going to see a downpour 30 minutes ago.

I mean, my A/C, lawn, and I are digging the heavy clouds rolling in.

[Rip76]

This mess is much farther south and west of anticipated.

Could make for an interesting Friday evening and Saturday.

Sorry, driving back from Dallas.
Interesting how?

Up in College Station in the summer - any deviation (cooler, chance of rain) from 100°F and no rain is interesting. We're seeing waves of rain moving NW. I thought we were were going to see a downpour 30 minutes ago.

I mean, my A/C, lawn, and I are digging the heavy clouds rolling in.

Oh yes, understood.