December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[Texaspirate11]

I'll be in Lufkin for a wedding on NYE - this should be interesting....

[Heat Miser]

I'll be in Lufkin for a wedding on NYE - this should be interesting....

Weddings certainly can be.

[Paul Robison]

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "wet" for southeast Texas, as the sole precip mode. I wonder what tomorrow's model runs will bring. The GFS parallel model showed icy mix in Houston in its forecast a week and a half ago -- now forecasting rain. Will be interesting to see if it slips back toward a mix as we get closer. Too many factors in play for any sort of certainty, but for me at least, this is the most "interesting" system so far this winter for the possibility of an icy mix within a 2hr drive north/west of downtown Houston.

Really? Where do you live, Brooks?

P.S. Moral: The computer models are CRAZY! Don't believe anything they say three days out.

[srainhoutx]

Little doubt this dense as molasses Arctic air mass is oozing S. The 32km NAM suggests precip of the wintry nature breaks out across the Permian Basin and near Wichita Falls. Some lighter precip is likely along the E facing Mountains of most of New Mexico into the Guadalupe Pass, El Paso, Davis Mountains area of West Texas tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

Just a quick question Srainhoutx, what circumstances does it take to get a "deeper" airmass into Tx, one that would produce snow?

Typically when we see a closed cold core upper low pass directly over or very near your location the column is sufficiently cold in all levels to produce snow or sleet.

Those type of events have caused snow events in 1960 and 2008.

[brooksgarner]

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "wet" for southeast Texas, as the sole precip mode. I wonder what tomorrow's model runs will bring. The GFS parallel model showed icy mix in Houston in its forecast a week and a half ago -- now forecasting rain. Will be interesting to see if it slips back toward a mix as we get closer. Too many factors in play for any sort of certainty, but for me at least, this is the most "interesting" system so far this winter for the possibility of an icy mix within a 2hr drive north/west of downtown Houston.

Really? Where do you live, Brooks?

P.S. Moral: The computer models are CRAZY! Don't believe anything they say three days out.

Haha, well... Paul - I live in a place where if you call for anything wintry and it doesn't happen, people don't forgive you for years and years and years. I always have to be careful not to wishcast (and I'm not saying anyone here is wishcasting...) All that said, it's also bad if we forecast rain and a crippling ice event happens.

Bottom-line in my humble, personal opinion: All the computer models are leaning wet, as of tonight. And they're leaning wet until you get into the pan handle and west TX... Now, local experience would suggest the real wintry mix line could set up much closer to us than models indicate currently (Austin/San Anton?), due meteorologically to dynamic cooling once that rain falls thru an arctic-dry atmosphere, and academically, from experiencing over and over, how poorly models handle arctic air masses, with their warm bias.

But, I don't see a model bust becoming truly evident until about 3am Thursday morning, when it's actually raining and we can watch temps in the upper-30s (with dew points in the upper-20s), start falling toward the dew point... My gut says they'll stop at 32º-33º in the cold spots to the north of Houston [Huntsville, Conroe?] with limited icing due to warm pavement temperatures and soil temps... But sure, I'd see issues in the Hill Country and around Lufkin, where there should be slightly drier air. Hopefully the models will come into line by tomorrow night -- if we are due for a potential wintry event. Blah.

[cperk]

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "wet" for southeast Texas, as the sole precip mode. I wonder what tomorrow's model runs will bring. The GFS parallel model showed icy mix in Houston in its forecast a week and a half ago -- now forecasting rain. Will be interesting to see if it slips back toward a mix as we get closer. Too many factors in play for any sort of certainty, but for me at least, this is the most "interesting" system so far this winter for the possibility of an icy mix within a 2hr drive north/west of downtown Houston.

Brooks sorry for the post calling you out for your analysis of the upcoming artic front.Our forum members appreciate the input of you and the other pro-mets that take time to inform us on what's happening with our local weather especially the possibly severe events.We understand that forecasting wintry weather can be difficult,and look forward to your input on the next upcoming wintry event.

[nuby3]

Brooks did a beautiful job handling things there. somebody's gonna get caught off guard by something nasty here, just a matter of who. I wish forecasts did a better job at describing all possible outcomes, not just one thing that we've decided to "go with" until we know more. there is no way to be right about what the future will bring. There is no doubt computers are still too warm. they always are, and now they are too. just have to wait and see how much too warm they are. I'm along the lines of brooks' thinking right now. with a degree or two making all the difference. as usual.

[Heat Miser]

A few degrees downward this past Sunday, driving back from Dallas, would have made that trip miserable and long. Meteorologist in this area have a tough time going with a winter precip scenario, and I understand why. They have to go with the data given to them, but that fly in the ointment can always play havoc.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm likely over a large part of TX NYE and NYD with travel impacts.

Mainly cold rain for most of SE TX.

Arctic cold front be driven by impressive 1055mb high pressure cell over MT this morning continues to ooze its ways southward under unfavorable WSW flow aloft. Dense cold air mass damming against the higher elevations of the southern Rockies is helping to force the cold air south across west TX and it will gradually spread eastward across the rest of the state today. Temperatures today will warm slightly into the mid 50’s prior to the onset of cold air advection and then begin to fall this afternoon as the arctic air begins to filter into the region. Upstream temperatures over CO are very cold in the 1’s and this air mass will continue to surge down into WC and NW TX today.

NYE:
Cold arctic air mass will be in place with warm nose on WSW flow aloft above the surface cold pool. This will certainly create a thick deck of clouds allowing for very little if any warming on Wednesday. Still think the best course of action is to undercut guidance numbers by up to 5 degrees and go with near steady temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s not the upper 40’s. Strong upper level storm system over the US west coast begins its track toward TX on NYE with lift starting to increase NYE night over the top of the surface cold dome. An extensive review of forecasted surface low temperatures and dewpoints/wet bulb suggest most of SE TX will remain liquid. Forecast profiles show a strong warm nose above the arctic cold dome favoring only freezing rain if the surface temperature were to fall to freezing. Dewpoints in the upper 20’s for College Station and Huntsville late NYE night/NYD with surface temperatures of 32-35 suggest onset of light precipitation in this region (far north and west) may be enough to lower the surface temperature to freezing and result in freezing rain/drizzle. This would be a very marginal ice threat given warm ground temperatures and temperatures in the 31-33 degree range…still some bridges and overpasses NW of a line from Columbus to Brenham to Huntsville could see some ice accumulation late NYE night into NYD. Still a lot of uncertainty in this part of the forecast.

Bigger problems appear along and west of I-35 northward into OK where sub freezing surface layer and higher QPF values support more significant ice accumulations. Hence A Winter Storm Watch is issued along and NW of a line from Del Rio to west of Georgetown and this watch may be extended eastward to include portions of the I-35 corridor late today or possibly an advisory. Travel impacts are likely in the Winter Storm Watch area NYE night and NYD.

NYD:
Cold and wet with only a very slow temperature recovery from morning lows in the mid 30’s. Coastal trough is forced off the lower TX coast due to incoming storm system from the west. Widespread lift from the coastal trough lifting northward toward the coast will result in numerous showers all day with temperatures slowly warming into the upper 30’s. Think any potential freezing rain over the far north and west counties will be ended by mid morning with temperatures warming a few degrees above freezing. Should more cold air more into the region than expected then this could linger the freezing rain threat over those NW counties longer into Thursday.

Friday:
More cold and wet with the upper level system approaching from the west. Coastal trough will lift toward the coast and then move toward LA with widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms likely. Does not look like surface warm front will move inland much if at all keeping much of the region in the cold sector. Expect temperatures to slowly warm into the upper 40’s under widespread rain.

Saturday:
Upper level system moves across the state with rain continuing early. Latest model runs have shown a little bit slower of a system and this could linger rain into Saturday afternoon with continued cool temperatures.

Upper level system will exit east Saturday night allowing a dry and cool air mass to filter in for next Sunday with sunny skies hopefully returning.

Rainfall amounts over the next 2-3 days will average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of up to 3 inches possible. Grounds are wet from recent rainfall and additional widespread rainfall as is being suggested will likely result in rises on area rivers.

[brooksgarner]

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "wet" for southeast Texas, as the sole precip mode. I wonder what tomorrow's model runs will bring. The GFS parallel model showed icy mix in Houston in its forecast a week and a half ago -- now forecasting rain. Will be interesting to see if it slips back toward a mix as we get closer. Too many factors in play for any sort of certainty, but for me at least, this is the most "interesting" system so far this winter for the possibility of an icy mix within a 2hr drive north/west of downtown Houston.

Brooks sorry for the post calling you out for your analysis of the upcoming artic front.Our forum members appreciate the input of you and the other pro-mets that take time to inform us on what's happening with our local weather especially the possibly severe events.We understand that forecasting wintry weather can be difficult,and look forward to your input on the next upcoming wintry event.

Paul, You are too kind to say that, but please know that I do welcome (and actually enjoy) all weather debate -- especially any voices of dissent, if the argument is evidence-based, because any valid contrary opinions obviously contribute to a more accurate forecast. Cheers!

[Portastorm]

I like EWX's thinking about this event and am now thinking the AUS metro area may end up a few degrees too warm for ZR/ZL. Gonna be close though and as we know, a few degrees can make a huge difference. Parts of west central, west and north Texas (west of I-35) are definitely going to experience wintry weather.

[snowman65]

This appears to be just our average winter stuff that we get around here every year. Nothing special.

[snowman65]

But we are leaving for Spicewood early tomorrow morning to beat the Wx coming...just in case...lol

[Portastorm]

But we are leaving for Spicewood early tomorrow morning to beat the Wx coming...just in case...lol

You may actually experience some light icing in Spicewood if the current forecast verifies. The western third of Travis County may see some light icing.

[srainhoutx]

Conditions across West, NW and W Central Texas are deteriorating rather quickly as light snow is falling in Amarillo. Lubbock is reporting a 20 vehicle accident due to light icing. Midland/Odessa is reporting light icing across their area. San Angelo is reporting icing in Sweetwater. The models were not forecasting much of any precipitation today and if they were, it was extremely insignificant.

[brooksgarner]

GFS and EURO have been suggesting a dusting or coating to 3" for the panhandle and west TX, with their solutions very simliar...I can only post the GFS (due to contract issues with EMCWF), but it looks similar... It will be interesting to see if this verifies.

[davidiowx]

GFS and EURO have been suggesting a dusting or coating to 3" for the panhandle and west TX, with their solutions very simliar...I can only post the GFS (due to contract issues with EMCWF), but it looks similar... It will be interesting to see if this verifies.

I wish that was further South and East about 500 miles!!

[srainhoutx]

Just enough lift generated with a passing upper air disturbance over Texas to bring light precipitation across areas that have dropped below freezing. Just goes to show that even a few 100th of inch of mist and drizzle can create havoc on elevated roads, bridges and metal surfaces. Abilene now reporting accidents from a light icing underway.

12302014 19Z TX VIS latest.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Winds are howling across Kachina Peak in Taos Ski Valley, NM.