FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[BlueJay]

Thanks for sharing this great article about the February 14, 1895 snow! It is certainly a reminder how the weather has always played such an important part of our everyday lives. I'm glad we are not experiencing such a snowmageddon today.

[TxLady]

I swear I'm beginning to talk with a British accent! Although I've not visited London, I feel as if our current weather pattern has me living there. It will be so nice to see some sunshine! I'm not looking forward to the heat of summer; but, a mild spring would be wonderful!

[jasons2k]

Fog has lifted, I see some sun, it's 75 degrees...oh happy day!!!

[redneckweather]

On Jan. 28th

Latest GFS says what frozen precip? lol I feel pretty darn confident we have seen our winter excitement this winter season. Days are getting longer and the jasmine will be blooming mid February. Come on Spring time!

Speaking of which, I need to go look around and see if the Jasmine is showing up in the trees yet. The transition from winter to spring is upon us.

[BlueJay]

Look! Quick! The sun is indeed peeking out!

[jasons2k]

80F at Hobby, 79F at Bush so far....quite a bit warmer than forecast....

[DoctorMu]

Weather that mold and mildew will love ahead for awhile.

[ticka1]

Fog rolled into East Baytown around 6:00 pm - looks like another foggy night amd morning.

[DoctorMu]

Dew point of 66°F and foggy. Feels and smells like Rotting Biomass out there! Jason's compost should be happy.

The ONE thing I miss about the 10 Year Drought was the NW flow - dry air, lower dew point. Sunny mild days in the Spring and Fall and cooler nights...reminds me of North Carolina weather where I grew up. It could be 80°F and sunny, but upper 50s at night. Fall and Spring tended to be drier than winter or summer. Great golf weather - in the Fall Indian Summer could go on it seemed forever.

Looks like our polar vortex weather, with the split, is now in Europe.

All the models are wet, wet, wet for the next 7-10 days. The sun may make an appearance at the end of the month.


London is getting the vortex and more sun.

[Thundersleet]

So, what precisely does all of this mean for SE Tx & the state of Tx in whole, is the season of Winter done with everyone for the remainder of this month & then the weather turns sharply icier, colder during the 1st half of Mach?

[srainhoutx]

Looking like generally light rain and warm temperatures will be the main concern weather wise the rest of the work week into the weekend. A very weak frontal boundary may briefly lower temperatures Friday afternoon across portions of our area, but that front stalls near the Coast and washes out Saturday bringing a quick return flow off the Gulf Saturday night into Sunday.

The next best chance for heavier showers and thunderstorms look to increase next Tuesday ahead of another front and unusually high PW's for February suggesting some potential for heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. I still do not see any strong cold fronts in the extended range as we near the end of February at this time. That noisy sub tropical jet still looks persistent with storm systems racing across the Central Plains on to the East Coast. Foggy conditions to look likely as well.

[DoctorMu]

So, what precisely does all of this mean for SE Tx & the state of Tx in whole, is the season of Winter done with everyone for the remainder of this month & then the weather turns sharply icier, colder during the 1st half of Mach?

We stuck in a late winter La Nina pattern. Winter on hold. May be dead for us with a split Vortex. Euro may suffer...

...but early March whiplashes are very common.


Hope we avoid mosquitos this early. At least I won't have to water the yard for awhile. Will have to cut the grass, though.

[Cromagnum]

I'm hoping for zero rain for a month. My yard is a bog and I badly need to spray preemergents and fire ant treatment down. Mosquitoes are going to be God awful unless it gets cold again and the rain stops.

[srainhoutx]

A warm start to the day will transition to cooler temperatures by tonight into tomorrow as a cold front slowly advances SE toward the Coast overnight. Still some uncertainty if the front moves offshore, or stalls somewhere along or just S of the HWY 59 (I-69) Corridor. Daytime highs behind the front should drop to seasonal norms of upper 60's with lows in the upper 50's with clouds overhead and possibly some drizzle. The front washes out quickly Sunday evening with a return flow off the Gulf and warming temperatures on Presidents Day.

Monday night into Tuesday, low level moisture increases to near 2 inches ahead of another front dropping into Texas. Slightly better dynamics and embedded disturbances riding across Mexico along our noisy sub tropical jet suggest a good chance of rainfall, possibly heavy with increasing showers and thunderstorms that may train as the front approaches Wednesday. Temperatures fall back to normal February standards for 24 to 36 hours, but likely cloudy conditions and warming temperatures as the front again washes out. A big blocking Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Upper Ridge prevents much of a change throughout next week.

I still do not see any significant cool down to end the month of February, but it does look wet.

[tireman4]

Weak Cold Front Timing

[jasons2k]

I'm hoping for zero rain for a month. My yard is a bog and I badly need to spray preemergents and fire ant treatment down. Mosquitoes are going to be God awful unless it gets cold again and the rain stops.

Yes, I'm hoping it will stay dry enough over the weekend to get pre-emergent down too, as things are sprouting. I've already seen a few mosquitoes and just yesterday we had a crane fly outbreak start up. I don't want to go a whole month without rain though - the plants and trees need replenishment as they bloom out.

I surveyed some more freeze damage. It's bad folks, especially up here. I have one neighbor with seven queen palms surrounding his pool. I think he's gonna lose ALL seven! $$$$!

[jasons2k]

I see the sea breeze on radar. Another sign we are headed into Spring.

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see some potential for heavier rainfall early to at least mid next week. The GFS is suggesting a general 2 to 4 inches may be possible with isolated higher totals where training storms may organize and move across portions of our Region.

[don]

Gonna have to watch this upcoming Wednesday for heavy rain.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Weak front is slowly moving through the region. It should
gradually be losing support for a continued southward push this
evening and guidance continues to show it stalling somewhere
between I-10 and the coast overnight. It`ll probably meander
between Highway 59 and the beaches through Saturday night.
Although there`s not a lot of forcing, think there`s probably
enough llvl saturation and isentropic lift to maintain lowish POPs
in the fcst. Areas of dense sea fog will persist south of the
boundary. As lee side pressures fall, look for the stationary
front to head back north on Sunday.

The broad upper ridge that has been situated across the Gulf Coast
will make its way eastward and off the southeast U.S. coast early
next week as the next western trof digs southward. A more
pronounced southwest flow aloft will evolve going into midweek as
the eastern ridge expands northward and western trof southward.
Llvl s/se flow will increase thru the same time period as pressure
gradient tightens.

The next cold front will approach the area ~Wednesday next week.
With very little upper-level support for a continued southward
push, the front is likely to become stationary near the coast. This
type of pattern (blocking high to the east, trof to the west, sw
flow aloft transporting Pacific moisture and upper disturbances,
deep Gulf moisture in place, upper diffluence, and a stationary
boundary) has been known to be a prolific rain producer across the
area. We`re still a long way off--but just something we`ll be
keeping an eye on in the coming days. 47/22

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to paint a very unsettled and wet pattern with the potential of some heavy rainfall this coming work week. Another cool front will approach the Coast on Wednesday and return N as a warm front Thursday with a wave of low pressure developing near S Central Texas Thursday evening. While the current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggest the best chance of heavier rainfall will remain to our NE, the models are struggling from run to run at to where the heavier rainfall may occur. Some of the Global deterministic and ensemble guidance have been flip flopping teasing our SE Texas Region with 2 to 4 inches and then the next run suggesting 1 to 2 inches. The bottom line is the pattern looks very capable of delivery some hefty rainfall totals across a large portion of Texas throughout the coming work week. Right now it looks like street flooding and ponding in low lying areas would be the main concern. The sub tropical jet look to remain very noisy overhead with embedded disturbances rippling NE along the SJT over Texas. A trough to our West and a wide open Gulf of Mexico suggests very high moisture values for February.