August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[TexasBreeze]

From the east coast to Texas then the remnants towards Arizona. Sounds like a typical long range difference to me!

[Texaspirate11]

CYA forecast lol

[Stratton20]

What are yalls thoughts on this? If this verifies, this could spell big trouble for the Gulf Of Mexico potentially

[don]

The reason for the change in the 12Z GFS is because the front never clears the area into the Gulf.And instead stalls out in the Panhandle.Earlier runs of the GFS a few days ago were showing something similar to this, it will be interesting to see if its a trend or just a fluke run.

[Cpv17]

12z HWRF with a huge shift south. Shoots Grace through the Yucatán channel and brushes the northern tip of the Yucatán peninsula before emerging into the Gulf as a strengthening cane.

[Cpv17]

Just as I suspected the Euro shows absolutely nothing.

[davidiowx]

From the east coast to Texas then the remnants towards Arizona. Sounds like a typical long range difference to me!

Are you referring to Fred or Grace? I must have missed that part in the discussion

[TexasBreeze]

EC looks a lot like current remnant Fred, but the remnants head more west instead. Not too much there.
The GFS I posted about is the Grace track. Southern western route to Corpus then all the way to AZ. The earlier runs were east coast

[Kingwood36]

From the east coast to Texas then the remnants towards Arizona. Sounds like a typical long range difference to me!

Are you referring to Fred or Grace? I must have missed that part in the discussion

Grace

[Stratton20]

CPV17 Looks like the Euro is garbage yet again, with so much model support for Grace We might as wel throw out the Euro at this point

[cperk]

Can't wait to see what the 12Z Euro run looks like.

I seriously doubt the Euro will show anything. That model has been atrocious regarding tc genesis since last year. There could be a tropical storm out there and it would initialize it as an open wave lol

I can't argue with you on that one.

Cpv17 you were dead on the 12z Euro didn’t do a damn thing with Grace.

[Stratton20]

Why is the Euro this bad at seeing Grace? Has the model not been upgraded recently?

[Kingwood36]

Shift towards the south and west

[Cpv17]

Why is the Euro this bad at seeing Grace? Has the model not been upgraded recently?

I think the last upgrade jacked it up. It used to be really good.

[Stratton20]

Well I guess we shouldnt rely on the Euro right now, definitely watching the model trends in Kingwood36’s post

[cperk]

Shift towards the south and west

That's a significant shift south.

[Stratton20]

18z Storm intensity guidance for Grace

[Ptarmigan]

One of the forecast models have Grace as a Category 4. Some have it as Category 3. Most keep it as tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane. Subject to change.

[DoctorMu]

Hurricane Hunters are on their way to check out Grace. NHS update at 4pm CT.

Mike's Weather Page
1tSponsorr6ecdSrlm ·
Latest Saturday 18z spaghetti models for Grace. New NHC track update at 5pm coming. Hurricane Hunters inside now checking her out. www.spaghettimodels.com

[Kingwood36]

Well there is this....to say it's anyone best guess as to where this thing goes is a understatement