Of course the death ridge holds firm until something could possibly help us, then it quickly steps aside momentarily.
I hope we don't get those rolling blackouts that ERCOT is threatening from 2-8 today.
July 2022
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Need to rename this thread "Debbie Downer 2022."
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4646
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
This is a long one....
FXUS64 KHGX 111134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Showers, thunderstorms and spotty MVFR CIGS have developed this
morning in areas south of I-10. These showers should taper off
through mid morning with any and all CIGS scattering out as the
day heats up. SW winds this morning will become SE at 10 kts this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may make a return late in the
afternoon as a weak boundary continues to linger over the Brazos
Valley. These storms should taper off later in the evening with
winds becoming light overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 407 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/...
.DISCUSSION...
We`re feelin` hot hot hot yet again today, with excessive heat
warnings in the northwestern part of our forecast area, and a
continued heat advisory elsewhere. Yesterday may have been the
peak, giving us our hottest day of the year (along with several
records - more on that in the climate section) but dangerous heat
will persist again today, as any improvement in conditions this
week looks to be slow and gradual. Everyone - and especially
those who work outdoors - need to continue to build in
accommodations for extreme heat again today...and likely tomorrow
as well.
Also like yesterday, though most can expect fair and dry
weather, we can also expect to see an isolated handful of late
afternoon and early evening storms to pop up. On the bright side,
this may bring some brief relief to the lucky few to be underneath
the storms, but there will also be threats for lightning and
locally gusty winds as well.
As the week goes on, we should see a gradual return to more
seasonable conditions, though it appears that temperatures will
continue to run at least a little above average. There should also
be some better coverage of afternoon showers and storms,
particularly in the middle of the week.
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Today the mid to upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners
begin to shift towards the W/NW, lowering 500mb heights over SE
Texas to around 590/592 dam. With 850mb temperatures around 23-26C
today, we can expect another day of highs in the mid 90s to mid 100s
with heat indices ranging from 106-112F across the region. An
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect over our western counties
until 8pm tonight, with the rest of SE Texas under a heat advisory
during this time frame. A weak boundary over the Brazos Valley will
help bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Though, as these storms drift south during the day, they may bring
more than just rain. Given this weakly sheared environment,
inverted V-esque model soundings, PWATS near 2.0" and DCAPE in
excess of 1500 J/KG, it`s possible that microbursts may develop,
bringing with them a threat of brief, strong, gusty winds. Though,
for all intents and purposes, heat will continue to be the
primary weather hazard, so remember to practice heat safety.
Tuesday will see more substantial relief as the ridge of doom
continues towards the W/NW. 850mb temperatures will fall to around
20-23C during the day, bringing highs in the mid 90s to lower
100s. Heat indicies will peak around 105-109F, so heat advisories
will still be needed for much of the region. We`ll likely see a
similar convective pattern during the day as the weak boundary
continues to linger near the Brazos Valley. While the possibility
of strong pulse storms remains, the heat will stay as the primary
concern.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The ridge that`s been king of the hill of late finally looks to
get nudged off its perch by the middle of the week, though it will
still be working hard to extend its influence over the area. 500
mb heights above the 90th percentile are still forecast into parts
of North Texas and the Hill Country, but have at least slipped
beneath the 90th percentile here in Southeast Texas.
Correspondingly, 850 mb temps are also pulling back from
climatological maxes, though ensemble means are still around the
90th percentile in the area. This signals that while temperatures
are likely to fall off from their extremes of the weekend, we can
still expect above average heat to persist through the week. We
may even need one more day of heat advisories inland on Wednesday.
And, as temperatures continue to slowly ease up, we should also
see some better coverage in afternoon showers and storms,
particularly around the seabreeze boundary in the afternoon and
early evening. The past couple days we have only seen isolated
storms break through, as mid-level subsidence has choked off most
potential storm updrafts before they can really get going. As the
ridge weakens, that subsidence inversion should also become less
effective, allowing for some more showers and storms to develop.
Now, a "less inhibitive" environment doesn`t mean a favorable
environment in more absolute terms. Envision this more like a
return to the typical seasonal pattern with scattered coverage at
most. Everyone will get their rain raffle tickets in the morning -
some will get lucky and see some rain, most of us will be dry and
hoping the next day is our lucky day.
Of course, with all that said, things get extra uncertain towards
the end of the week, thanks to that lemony blob the National
Hurricane Center is painting in their outlooks. Do the remnants of
the front they`re highlighting develop into a tropical cyclone
once they get some time over water? Does this feature - whether a
named storm or not, make it far enough west to impact us? All of
these are open questions now, and ones I don`t want to speak with
a whole lot of finality on right now. Heck, the stuff we`re
watching closely right now is still over Georgia and hasn`t even
sniffed the Gulf yet.
This is something to watch for sure, simply because this is a
common mechanism for tropical cyclone formation in the early
season, and it could make its way towards our area. But...it could
just as easily get swept up by a northern stream trough and be
yanked away, while the western ridge amplifies and gives us a
hotter, drier weekend instead. My forecast has to be
deterministic, and because the weight of the guidance is trending
towards keeping the main influence east of us, my grids trend a
little warmer and drier for the coming weekend. Just keep in mind
that this could be way off, and to check back periodically through
the week for the latest!
I, for one, would very much like for these frontal remnants to
stay only loosely organized, not develop into a tropical cyclone,
and continue to drift westward over the area to give us a long,
steady, gentle soaking to help ease drought concerns. Given that
it`s what I want, that probably means that is not what`s going to
happen, but I`ve got my fingers crossed.
.MARINE...
Onshore winds have increased above the SCEC threshold overnight,
and are expected to continue into this morning on the Gulf before
moderating. A few gusts may even reach up to 25 knots in isolated
spots. Otherwise, expect light to moderate onshore winds with
shifts based on the daily seabreeze/landbreeze pattern to prevail
through the week. Rain chances are forecast to increase around
the middle of the week as high pressure slightly loosens its grip
on the region.
Mariners will also want to monitor the latest from this office and
the National Hurricane Center as we watch for potential tropical
development along the northern Gulf coast east of our area.
Though development chances over the next five days are currently
considered low, it is still likely to result in unsettled weather
along the northern Gulf coast later this week.
.TROPICAL...
The remnants of a decaying front over the Southeast US are
drifting slowly towards the Gulf, and as it reaches the water and
redevelops into a surface trough in the next couple of days, will
have to be watched closely for potential tropical cyclone
development. Formation of tropical cyclones off the remnants of
old fronts are a well-known mechanism for early season
development, and though the model guidance has not been terribly
consistent, this is definitely a feature that will need to be
monitored this week.
Currently, the NHC gives this feature a 30 percent chance of
development over the next five days. Even if we do not see any
sort of tropical cyclone formation, this is likely to generate
plenty of unsettled weather along the northern Gulf through the
week. If it drifts westward enough, that could include coastal
portions of Southeast Texas, mostly on the upper coast around the
Galveston Bay area.
.CLIMATE...
Of the ten possible heat records yesterday (high minimum
temperature and high temperature at five first order climate
sites), we managed to tie or break nine of them! Here`s a quick
summary:
Climate Site | Min Temp | Record High Min Temp (Year)
----------------------------------------------------------
City of Houston | 82 | 81 (2009)
Houston Hobby | 81 | 80 (2020)
Galveston | 85 | 83 (2021)
College Station | 80 | 80 (2009)
Palacios | 84 | 83 (2020)
Climate Site | Max Temp | Record High Temp (Year)
-----------------------------------------------------
City of Houston | 105 | 101 (1998)
Houston Hobby | 104 | 100 (1964)
Galveston | 96 | 96 (1931)
College Station | 111 | 109 (1917)
Palacios | 95 | 99 (2005)
As astute followers of Southeast Texas climate will know (or
anyone who takes a quick glance at the tables should be able to
infer), record high min temperatures in this area have fallen at a
pretty rapidly clip this century. The afternoon high temperature
records have not been falling at quite the same pace, so to have a
day where so many records at both ends of the day fall really
speaks to just how extreme this July 10 is in the historical
record.
To really drive it home, College Station`s high of 111 is the
second highest max temperature on record, going back to 1888. It
is only one degree off the all-time record high temperature for
the city, which was recorded on September 4, 2000. It is the
hottest July day on record for College Station, eclipsing the 110
mark last seen on July 11, 1917.
Houston`s 105 degree mark matches the July record mark, last seen
July 26, 1954. However, it is not the hottest mark so early in
the year, as June 29, 2013 did reach 107. It also is "only" the
17th hottest day in the official record for the city.
Hobby`s 104 degree high does put it in the top 10 all time, tying
it for 8th. But it is neither a record mark for July, nor for so
early in the year, as it fell one degree short of July 8, 1939
(and also June 29, 2013).
Persistent onshore flow meant that while Galveston still saw a
daily record today, it fell fairly far down the all-time record
ledger. Its high of 96 is not good enough for even the top 50 all-
time, and only good for tenth on the list of July records. This is
mainly because the really extreme days at Galveston tend to come
when onshore winds are suppressed, and can really spike when
offshore westerlies can advect some hotter, mainland air over the
Island.
Finally, newcomer Palacios just couldn`t keep pace with the more
established first order climate sites. It did manage to set a new
record high minimum temperature yesterday, but fell four degrees
short of its record high from 2005. Like Galveston, Palacios`
location very near the water likely moderated afternoon highs
slightly, keeping the site from really threatening those record
highs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 107 80 104 80 104 / 20 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 102 80 100 79 100 / 20 20 20 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 95 85 94 84 94 / 20 20 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Wharton.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Waller...Washington.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Brokamp
MARINE...Luchs
TROPICAL...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 111134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Showers, thunderstorms and spotty MVFR CIGS have developed this
morning in areas south of I-10. These showers should taper off
through mid morning with any and all CIGS scattering out as the
day heats up. SW winds this morning will become SE at 10 kts this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may make a return late in the
afternoon as a weak boundary continues to linger over the Brazos
Valley. These storms should taper off later in the evening with
winds becoming light overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 407 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/...
.DISCUSSION...
We`re feelin` hot hot hot yet again today, with excessive heat
warnings in the northwestern part of our forecast area, and a
continued heat advisory elsewhere. Yesterday may have been the
peak, giving us our hottest day of the year (along with several
records - more on that in the climate section) but dangerous heat
will persist again today, as any improvement in conditions this
week looks to be slow and gradual. Everyone - and especially
those who work outdoors - need to continue to build in
accommodations for extreme heat again today...and likely tomorrow
as well.
Also like yesterday, though most can expect fair and dry
weather, we can also expect to see an isolated handful of late
afternoon and early evening storms to pop up. On the bright side,
this may bring some brief relief to the lucky few to be underneath
the storms, but there will also be threats for lightning and
locally gusty winds as well.
As the week goes on, we should see a gradual return to more
seasonable conditions, though it appears that temperatures will
continue to run at least a little above average. There should also
be some better coverage of afternoon showers and storms,
particularly in the middle of the week.
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Today the mid to upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners
begin to shift towards the W/NW, lowering 500mb heights over SE
Texas to around 590/592 dam. With 850mb temperatures around 23-26C
today, we can expect another day of highs in the mid 90s to mid 100s
with heat indices ranging from 106-112F across the region. An
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect over our western counties
until 8pm tonight, with the rest of SE Texas under a heat advisory
during this time frame. A weak boundary over the Brazos Valley will
help bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Though, as these storms drift south during the day, they may bring
more than just rain. Given this weakly sheared environment,
inverted V-esque model soundings, PWATS near 2.0" and DCAPE in
excess of 1500 J/KG, it`s possible that microbursts may develop,
bringing with them a threat of brief, strong, gusty winds. Though,
for all intents and purposes, heat will continue to be the
primary weather hazard, so remember to practice heat safety.
Tuesday will see more substantial relief as the ridge of doom
continues towards the W/NW. 850mb temperatures will fall to around
20-23C during the day, bringing highs in the mid 90s to lower
100s. Heat indicies will peak around 105-109F, so heat advisories
will still be needed for much of the region. We`ll likely see a
similar convective pattern during the day as the weak boundary
continues to linger near the Brazos Valley. While the possibility
of strong pulse storms remains, the heat will stay as the primary
concern.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The ridge that`s been king of the hill of late finally looks to
get nudged off its perch by the middle of the week, though it will
still be working hard to extend its influence over the area. 500
mb heights above the 90th percentile are still forecast into parts
of North Texas and the Hill Country, but have at least slipped
beneath the 90th percentile here in Southeast Texas.
Correspondingly, 850 mb temps are also pulling back from
climatological maxes, though ensemble means are still around the
90th percentile in the area. This signals that while temperatures
are likely to fall off from their extremes of the weekend, we can
still expect above average heat to persist through the week. We
may even need one more day of heat advisories inland on Wednesday.
And, as temperatures continue to slowly ease up, we should also
see some better coverage in afternoon showers and storms,
particularly around the seabreeze boundary in the afternoon and
early evening. The past couple days we have only seen isolated
storms break through, as mid-level subsidence has choked off most
potential storm updrafts before they can really get going. As the
ridge weakens, that subsidence inversion should also become less
effective, allowing for some more showers and storms to develop.
Now, a "less inhibitive" environment doesn`t mean a favorable
environment in more absolute terms. Envision this more like a
return to the typical seasonal pattern with scattered coverage at
most. Everyone will get their rain raffle tickets in the morning -
some will get lucky and see some rain, most of us will be dry and
hoping the next day is our lucky day.
Of course, with all that said, things get extra uncertain towards
the end of the week, thanks to that lemony blob the National
Hurricane Center is painting in their outlooks. Do the remnants of
the front they`re highlighting develop into a tropical cyclone
once they get some time over water? Does this feature - whether a
named storm or not, make it far enough west to impact us? All of
these are open questions now, and ones I don`t want to speak with
a whole lot of finality on right now. Heck, the stuff we`re
watching closely right now is still over Georgia and hasn`t even
sniffed the Gulf yet.
This is something to watch for sure, simply because this is a
common mechanism for tropical cyclone formation in the early
season, and it could make its way towards our area. But...it could
just as easily get swept up by a northern stream trough and be
yanked away, while the western ridge amplifies and gives us a
hotter, drier weekend instead. My forecast has to be
deterministic, and because the weight of the guidance is trending
towards keeping the main influence east of us, my grids trend a
little warmer and drier for the coming weekend. Just keep in mind
that this could be way off, and to check back periodically through
the week for the latest!
I, for one, would very much like for these frontal remnants to
stay only loosely organized, not develop into a tropical cyclone,
and continue to drift westward over the area to give us a long,
steady, gentle soaking to help ease drought concerns. Given that
it`s what I want, that probably means that is not what`s going to
happen, but I`ve got my fingers crossed.
.MARINE...
Onshore winds have increased above the SCEC threshold overnight,
and are expected to continue into this morning on the Gulf before
moderating. A few gusts may even reach up to 25 knots in isolated
spots. Otherwise, expect light to moderate onshore winds with
shifts based on the daily seabreeze/landbreeze pattern to prevail
through the week. Rain chances are forecast to increase around
the middle of the week as high pressure slightly loosens its grip
on the region.
Mariners will also want to monitor the latest from this office and
the National Hurricane Center as we watch for potential tropical
development along the northern Gulf coast east of our area.
Though development chances over the next five days are currently
considered low, it is still likely to result in unsettled weather
along the northern Gulf coast later this week.
.TROPICAL...
The remnants of a decaying front over the Southeast US are
drifting slowly towards the Gulf, and as it reaches the water and
redevelops into a surface trough in the next couple of days, will
have to be watched closely for potential tropical cyclone
development. Formation of tropical cyclones off the remnants of
old fronts are a well-known mechanism for early season
development, and though the model guidance has not been terribly
consistent, this is definitely a feature that will need to be
monitored this week.
Currently, the NHC gives this feature a 30 percent chance of
development over the next five days. Even if we do not see any
sort of tropical cyclone formation, this is likely to generate
plenty of unsettled weather along the northern Gulf through the
week. If it drifts westward enough, that could include coastal
portions of Southeast Texas, mostly on the upper coast around the
Galveston Bay area.
.CLIMATE...
Of the ten possible heat records yesterday (high minimum
temperature and high temperature at five first order climate
sites), we managed to tie or break nine of them! Here`s a quick
summary:
Climate Site | Min Temp | Record High Min Temp (Year)
----------------------------------------------------------
City of Houston | 82 | 81 (2009)
Houston Hobby | 81 | 80 (2020)
Galveston | 85 | 83 (2021)
College Station | 80 | 80 (2009)
Palacios | 84 | 83 (2020)
Climate Site | Max Temp | Record High Temp (Year)
-----------------------------------------------------
City of Houston | 105 | 101 (1998)
Houston Hobby | 104 | 100 (1964)
Galveston | 96 | 96 (1931)
College Station | 111 | 109 (1917)
Palacios | 95 | 99 (2005)
As astute followers of Southeast Texas climate will know (or
anyone who takes a quick glance at the tables should be able to
infer), record high min temperatures in this area have fallen at a
pretty rapidly clip this century. The afternoon high temperature
records have not been falling at quite the same pace, so to have a
day where so many records at both ends of the day fall really
speaks to just how extreme this July 10 is in the historical
record.
To really drive it home, College Station`s high of 111 is the
second highest max temperature on record, going back to 1888. It
is only one degree off the all-time record high temperature for
the city, which was recorded on September 4, 2000. It is the
hottest July day on record for College Station, eclipsing the 110
mark last seen on July 11, 1917.
Houston`s 105 degree mark matches the July record mark, last seen
July 26, 1954. However, it is not the hottest mark so early in
the year, as June 29, 2013 did reach 107. It also is "only" the
17th hottest day in the official record for the city.
Hobby`s 104 degree high does put it in the top 10 all time, tying
it for 8th. But it is neither a record mark for July, nor for so
early in the year, as it fell one degree short of July 8, 1939
(and also June 29, 2013).
Persistent onshore flow meant that while Galveston still saw a
daily record today, it fell fairly far down the all-time record
ledger. Its high of 96 is not good enough for even the top 50 all-
time, and only good for tenth on the list of July records. This is
mainly because the really extreme days at Galveston tend to come
when onshore winds are suppressed, and can really spike when
offshore westerlies can advect some hotter, mainland air over the
Island.
Finally, newcomer Palacios just couldn`t keep pace with the more
established first order climate sites. It did manage to set a new
record high minimum temperature yesterday, but fell four degrees
short of its record high from 2005. Like Galveston, Palacios`
location very near the water likely moderated afternoon highs
slightly, keeping the site from really threatening those record
highs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 107 80 104 80 104 / 20 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 102 80 100 79 100 / 20 20 20 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 95 85 94 84 94 / 20 20 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Wharton.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Waller...Washington.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Brokamp
MARINE...Luchs
TROPICAL...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
To add to the downer thread, my AC died yesterday. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:43 pm Need to rename this thread "Debbie Downer 2022."
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4646
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
FXUS64 KHGX 111734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Southwesterly winds will continue their gradually transition to
southeasterly over the next few hours. Expect a brief increase in
wind speeds in the late afternoon/evening hours with sustained
winds around 12-14 knots, especially for sites near and south of
I-10. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
again this afternoon beginning near the Brazos Valley and drifting
southward through the afternoon/evening hours. Gusty winds will be
the main hazard in any of the stronger storms as the environment
is fairly similar to yesterday where we saw multiple microbursts.
This round of convection dissipates around midnight, however
additional shower development is expected along the coast on early
Tuesday morning. Winds become light and variable overnight before
picking up out of the southwest in the mid morning hours. Another
round of showers/storms is expected for Tuesday afternoon with the
greater coverage south of I-10. Winds become southeasterly in the
afternoon hours.
Batiste
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Southwesterly winds will continue their gradually transition to
southeasterly over the next few hours. Expect a brief increase in
wind speeds in the late afternoon/evening hours with sustained
winds around 12-14 knots, especially for sites near and south of
I-10. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
again this afternoon beginning near the Brazos Valley and drifting
southward through the afternoon/evening hours. Gusty winds will be
the main hazard in any of the stronger storms as the environment
is fairly similar to yesterday where we saw multiple microbursts.
This round of convection dissipates around midnight, however
additional shower development is expected along the coast on early
Tuesday morning. Winds become light and variable overnight before
picking up out of the southwest in the mid morning hours. Another
round of showers/storms is expected for Tuesday afternoon with the
greater coverage south of I-10. Winds become southeasterly in the
afternoon hours.
Batiste
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4646
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Also, this...What determines a Texas power emergency?
There are three energy emergency levels that ERCOT uses in coordination with conservation alerts to protect the grid. All three levels are determined by power reserve amounts falling below certain thresholds for more than 30 minutes.
At Level 1, available reserve power drops below 2,300 megawatts for more than a half-hour and ERCOT can call on all available power supplies. Contrary to a common misconception, ERCOT can ask other grids for power, if its available.
Level 2 kicks in when reserves fall below 1,750 megawatts and allows ERCOT to interrupt power to large industrial customers who have agreed to have electricity turned off in an emergency.
Level 3 emergencies are called when reserves drop below 1,000 MW for more than 30 minutes and are of most concern to residential consumers. They allow ERCOT to require that transmission companies -- such as CenterPoint in the Houston area -- reduce demand on the grid resulting in rolling blackouts.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... efb35f773a
There are three energy emergency levels that ERCOT uses in coordination with conservation alerts to protect the grid. All three levels are determined by power reserve amounts falling below certain thresholds for more than 30 minutes.
At Level 1, available reserve power drops below 2,300 megawatts for more than a half-hour and ERCOT can call on all available power supplies. Contrary to a common misconception, ERCOT can ask other grids for power, if its available.
Level 2 kicks in when reserves fall below 1,750 megawatts and allows ERCOT to interrupt power to large industrial customers who have agreed to have electricity turned off in an emergency.
Level 3 emergencies are called when reserves drop below 1,000 MW for more than 30 minutes and are of most concern to residential consumers. They allow ERCOT to require that transmission companies -- such as CenterPoint in the Houston area -- reduce demand on the grid resulting in rolling blackouts.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... efb35f773a
It's about to pour again at our friend's house in SW Austin. Happy for them but geez, what are the odds?!?!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4646
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
This what Larry Cosgrove said about the heat...( from his Facebook page)
We still have about five weeks before some type of meaningful change in the upper air pattern will occur, one which would lessen the impact on some locations of excessively hot weather. For now, it is an almost weekly routine since May 1. A huge, strong subtropical high, with core heights of 594dcm or higher at 500MB, straddles the area between the "Four Corners" and western Tennessee. Anyone living under the scorching cTw regime can expect lowered precipitation potential and brutal displays of heat. Like many in Texas did on Sunday with afternoon highs of 110 F or higher.
When you examine all three of the numerical model suites, keep in mind that there is usually a retrogressive bias. Whereas the true position of the ridge center might be over Tulsa OK, the equations might place the center of the upper-level ridging over New Mexico or Colorado. This is important because on eastward pulsations, some of the ugly heat may reach rightward past the Appalachian Mountains. But most of the time, the worst will be in three zones: California, Texas, and the Great Plains. Weak cold fronts may rescue the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, and weaknesses aloft can allow for cooling thunderstorms in the Southwest (monsoon) and central/eastern Gulf Coast (diffuse frontal structure). The overall configuration is not favorable for meaningful tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic Basin.
So sit back, turn up the fan and/or air conditioner and stay out of the heat. I just hope that the power grids and energy needs can keep up with this barrage of hot and dry weather.
We still have about five weeks before some type of meaningful change in the upper air pattern will occur, one which would lessen the impact on some locations of excessively hot weather. For now, it is an almost weekly routine since May 1. A huge, strong subtropical high, with core heights of 594dcm or higher at 500MB, straddles the area between the "Four Corners" and western Tennessee. Anyone living under the scorching cTw regime can expect lowered precipitation potential and brutal displays of heat. Like many in Texas did on Sunday with afternoon highs of 110 F or higher.
When you examine all three of the numerical model suites, keep in mind that there is usually a retrogressive bias. Whereas the true position of the ridge center might be over Tulsa OK, the equations might place the center of the upper-level ridging over New Mexico or Colorado. This is important because on eastward pulsations, some of the ugly heat may reach rightward past the Appalachian Mountains. But most of the time, the worst will be in three zones: California, Texas, and the Great Plains. Weak cold fronts may rescue the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, and weaknesses aloft can allow for cooling thunderstorms in the Southwest (monsoon) and central/eastern Gulf Coast (diffuse frontal structure). The overall configuration is not favorable for meaningful tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic Basin.
So sit back, turn up the fan and/or air conditioner and stay out of the heat. I just hope that the power grids and energy needs can keep up with this barrage of hot and dry weather.
That may be the most depressing thing I’ve ever read.tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:49 pm This what Larry Cosgrove said about the heat...( from his Facebook page)
We still have about five weeks before some type of meaningful change in the upper air pattern will occur, one which would lessen the impact on some locations of excessively hot weather. For now, it is an almost weekly routine since May 1. A huge, strong subtropical high, with core heights of 594dcm or higher at 500MB, straddles the area between the "Four Corners" and western Tennessee. Anyone living under the scorching cTw regime can expect lowered precipitation potential and brutal displays of heat. Like many in Texas did on Sunday with afternoon highs of 110 F or higher.
When you examine all three of the numerical model suites, keep in mind that there is usually a retrogressive bias. Whereas the true position of the ridge center might be over Tulsa OK, the equations might place the center of the upper-level ridging over New Mexico or Colorado. This is important because on eastward pulsations, some of the ugly heat may reach rightward past the Appalachian Mountains. But most of the time, the worst will be in three zones: California, Texas, and the Great Plains. Weak cold fronts may rescue the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, and weaknesses aloft can allow for cooling thunderstorms in the Southwest (monsoon) and central/eastern Gulf Coast (diffuse frontal structure). The overall configuration is not favorable for meaningful tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic Basin.
So sit back, turn up the fan and/or air conditioner and stay out of the heat. I just hope that the power grids and energy needs can keep up with this barrage of hot and dry weather.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4415
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Huge spread in the 12z EPS
- Attachments
-
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4646
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
I told him, "Thanks for the bucket of ice love, Larry." LOLRip76 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:10 pmThat may be the most depressing thing I’ve ever read.tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:49 pm This what Larry Cosgrove said about the heat...( from his Facebook page)
We still have about five weeks before some type of meaningful change in the upper air pattern will occur, one which would lessen the impact on some locations of excessively hot weather. For now, it is an almost weekly routine since May 1. A huge, strong subtropical high, with core heights of 594dcm or higher at 500MB, straddles the area between the "Four Corners" and western Tennessee. Anyone living under the scorching cTw regime can expect lowered precipitation potential and brutal displays of heat. Like many in Texas did on Sunday with afternoon highs of 110 F or higher.
When you examine all three of the numerical model suites, keep in mind that there is usually a retrogressive bias. Whereas the true position of the ridge center might be over Tulsa OK, the equations might place the center of the upper-level ridging over New Mexico or Colorado. This is important because on eastward pulsations, some of the ugly heat may reach rightward past the Appalachian Mountains. But most of the time, the worst will be in three zones: California, Texas, and the Great Plains. Weak cold fronts may rescue the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, and weaknesses aloft can allow for cooling thunderstorms in the Southwest (monsoon) and central/eastern Gulf Coast (diffuse frontal structure). The overall configuration is not favorable for meaningful tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic Basin.
So sit back, turn up the fan and/or air conditioner and stay out of the heat. I just hope that the power grids and energy needs can keep up with this barrage of hot and dry weather.
5 more weeks of this hell weather and we are going to have a massive tree kill.
The 12GFS came out better than I thought it would, with decent totals across the state. Looks like residual weaknesses left behind after this weekend/early next week.
Really sorry to hear that, esp. in this weather.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:57 pmTo add to the downer thread, my AC died yesterday. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:43 pm Need to rename this thread "Debbie Downer 2022."
Really worried about potential rolling blackouts. They are compressor killers.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4415
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
man the 12z GFS is such a massive troll, we get shafted by the gulf system and then at hour 270 it has an upper low slowly moving around in Texas bringing a wide swath of 4-7 inches over SE Texas, this model infuriates me so much
In the past week, the trees are noticeably more stressed. The leaves are starting to brown-up now and the pine trees are starting to drop piles of pine needles. It’s like watching a slow-motion death. I hate droughts and this is turning into a bad one.