July 2025
Wondering why all the rain continuously stops on the globals near the LA/TX border. Seems like it’s been that way for a solid week now.
Angleton area is getting hit really hard. Been pouring there for about an hour straight now.
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 352
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Yeah, it just barely clipped the NW parts of Richwood when it first started. That’s frustrating.Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 5:42 pmI'm in richwood like 15 mins down the road from angleton and its dark but not a single drop here
Fewer weather balloon launches. The models are flying partially blind.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science ... rcna198055
I've been focusing on the Euro, upper atmosphere heights, mid-level ridges. 30+ years observing Texas weather. We've been sitting on the edge of the ridges, which have been constantly moving, setting us up for easterlies, with increasing robustness. There's a week of heat ahead, but I believe it won't be as robust as previous years. A lot of greeneage around and water/rain from the weekend will damp it down in SETX. The ridging will again be transient, and this FROPA looks pretty real. While it will be weak when it reaches Texas, it will spark more showers.
This summer is in comparison with most in the Brazos Valley is a gift horse. I'm riding her into college football season.
Also, the recent loss of seasoned Mets. Some are assuming the tropical lemonade will follow the surface high. They're dead wrong.
The accuracy of forecasts in general has really fallen off over the past year.
Some big time rains in the Pasadena area to Bellaire. I can hear the thunder from my house 25 or so miles away.
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 352
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Well no rain here but im thankful for the cloud cover. Gabe my ac unit a break lol
Mostly the same here. We had some sprinkles. Good enough. I like our chances of rain tomorrow.Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 7:55 pm Well no rain here but im thankful for the cloud cover. Gabe my ac unit a break lol
FROPA and rain chances next Thursday through Sunday are looking on track. Continued easterlies look probable.
Past August 8: all eyes on the tropics and Gulf.
Not looking like any rain today so far.. yikes
A nice seabreeze heading toward Austin...and between Houston and the Golden Triangle.
If we can get through the upcoming week...just maybe:
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Easterlies after the ridging FTW?
Throw in a FROPA? (my amendment)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
108 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
- Scattered showers and storms are expected through early this
evening. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible
with the stronger storms.
- Beginning next week, the focus will be heat and humidity, with the
potential of heat advisories by mid-week.
- Whether or not an advisory is issued, those individuals who are
vulnerable to heat, or will need to exert themselves strenuously
outdoors should have a plan to stay ahead of heat illness this week.
- Later in the week, another surge of tropical moisture will
increase rain and storm chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Deep Gulf moisture associated with a decaying surface trough
remains over the region today. Latest satellite imagery and
surface observations show PW values in the 2.1 to 2.5 inch range
over the entire region. In addition to abundant moisture, weak
forcing aloft along with surface frontogenesis developing along
the coast are also contributing to the development of showers, a
few locally heavy and thunderstorms this afternoon. As the
afternoon progresses, showers and storms will continue to spread
inland from the coast. Again, daytime heating along with
significant moisture remaining over us could potentially lead to
locally heavy rain, resulting in ponding on roads and minor street
flooding, especially in areas with saturated grounds. Gusty winds
up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Rainfall totals less than an inch can be expected, though pockets
of 1 to 3+ inches will be possible with the strongest cells. Rain
and storms will gradually diminish this evening from south to
north, followed by a muggy and warm night.
Sunday will feature coastal showers early in the morning,
spreading inland by mid-late morning. Scattered storms are
expected in the afternoon, though with potentially less coverage
than Saturday.
We`re heading towards a more typical late July pattern with
relatively drier and hotter conditions for the upcoming week. A
high pressure system currently to our east will shift westward and
build over the region late Sunday into Monday. This pattern will
bring a drier airmass, and hence more stable conditions dominating
southeast TX. Lingering low-level moisture surging inland from
the Gulf will still lead to isolated coastal morning showers and
inland afternoon storms at least on Monday. The main weather story
will be hot and humid conditions. Highs will gradually climb into
the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. Peak heat indices in the triple
digits can be expected. Will continue to monitor trends as we
might be close to advisory levels by mid-week.
Deja vu? Another surge of tropical moisture is expected to arrive
towards the end of the work-week as a mid-level trough slides
across the southeastern CONUS/northwestern Gulf. While specific
details and timing of this trough are still uncertain; this
impulse of moisture will bring increasing rain and storm chances
Thursday into the weekend.
JM
&&
Throw in a FROPA? (my amendment)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
108 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
- Scattered showers and storms are expected through early this
evening. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible
with the stronger storms.
- Beginning next week, the focus will be heat and humidity, with the
potential of heat advisories by mid-week.
- Whether or not an advisory is issued, those individuals who are
vulnerable to heat, or will need to exert themselves strenuously
outdoors should have a plan to stay ahead of heat illness this week.
- Later in the week, another surge of tropical moisture will
increase rain and storm chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Deep Gulf moisture associated with a decaying surface trough
remains over the region today. Latest satellite imagery and
surface observations show PW values in the 2.1 to 2.5 inch range
over the entire region. In addition to abundant moisture, weak
forcing aloft along with surface frontogenesis developing along
the coast are also contributing to the development of showers, a
few locally heavy and thunderstorms this afternoon. As the
afternoon progresses, showers and storms will continue to spread
inland from the coast. Again, daytime heating along with
significant moisture remaining over us could potentially lead to
locally heavy rain, resulting in ponding on roads and minor street
flooding, especially in areas with saturated grounds. Gusty winds
up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Rainfall totals less than an inch can be expected, though pockets
of 1 to 3+ inches will be possible with the strongest cells. Rain
and storms will gradually diminish this evening from south to
north, followed by a muggy and warm night.
Sunday will feature coastal showers early in the morning,
spreading inland by mid-late morning. Scattered storms are
expected in the afternoon, though with potentially less coverage
than Saturday.
We`re heading towards a more typical late July pattern with
relatively drier and hotter conditions for the upcoming week. A
high pressure system currently to our east will shift westward and
build over the region late Sunday into Monday. This pattern will
bring a drier airmass, and hence more stable conditions dominating
southeast TX. Lingering low-level moisture surging inland from
the Gulf will still lead to isolated coastal morning showers and
inland afternoon storms at least on Monday. The main weather story
will be hot and humid conditions. Highs will gradually climb into
the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. Peak heat indices in the triple
digits can be expected. Will continue to monitor trends as we
might be close to advisory levels by mid-week.
Deja vu? Another surge of tropical moisture is expected to arrive
towards the end of the work-week as a mid-level trough slides
across the southeastern CONUS/northwestern Gulf. While specific
details and timing of this trough are still uncertain; this
impulse of moisture will bring increasing rain and storm chances
Thursday into the weekend.
JM
&&
Picked up another .30” today, no complaints here.
Glad some people got some decent rains with this system. Turned out to be a big dud over here.
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