Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[gocuse22]

Im sorry i cant buy the eastward camp... The high will push this west

[Belmer]

Where can I find Stacy Stewart's discussion?

[Andrew]

If you look at the loop I posted above looks like the LLC is moving more NW.

[djmike]

Stacy Stewarts discussion explains it all. Im not buying the eastward shifts at all!

[gocuse22]

Stacy Stewarts discussion explains it all. Im not buying the eastward shifts at all!

Neither am i...GFDL has shifted east as well..

Its all up to "King" Euro....

[Andrew]

Stacy Stewarts discussion explains it all. Im not buying the eastward shifts at all!

Neither am i...GFDL has shifted east as well..

Its all up to "King" Euro....

Where do you get your gfdl update?

[djmike]

Euro running now! HERE WE GOOOO....

[gocuse22]

Stacy Stewarts discussion explains it all. Im not buying the eastward shifts at all!

Neither am i...GFDL has shifted east as well..

Its all up to "King" Euro....

Where do you get your gfdl update?

FSU site

[Belmer]

Stacy Stewarts discussion explains it all. Im not buying the eastward shifts at all!

Where can I find Stacy Stewart's discussion? I would like to see it.

[Scott747]

Where can I find Stacy Stewart's discussion?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0257.shtml

[Andrew]

1am update


000
WTNT34 KNHC 240534
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Andrew]

Euro coming in. I don't think the trough is going to get it on this one.

[djmike]

Euro so far is identical....

[gocuse22]

Euro coming in. I don't think the trough is going to get it on this one.

I agree as well. 4AM advisory will be ...wow.. with just Euro and HWRF on the Texas camp..what do they do

[biggerbyte]

Just as expected. The Euro has this one right. It is the model, along with others, that most of the real pros have focused on with this system. It makes the most logical sense. Until, or if the Euro flips, and we get the nod from the paid folks such as wxman57 to forget about it.....



Come on RAIN.

[Scott747]

Euro is further N through hr 60.

[cisa]

So euro is still trending westerly track?

[Scott747]

So euro is still trending westerly track?

It's much further N this run.

Looks like it might go in around Grand Isle.

[biggerbyte]

Wow! I'm on my cell at the moment. Need to take a look.

[gocuse22]

Euro is tracking west right near the LA coast