January 2023

[don]

Heavy rain seems to be the main threat with Tuesdays system.I would go with 1-2 inches right now for most with localized higher amounts of 2-4 inches wherever the surface low tracks.Severe weather is more conditional as the warm sector doesn't looks to move that far inland and instability will be limited.Coastal counties have the highest risk of seeing severe storms.(Note: due to strong dynamics and high precipitable waters,over performance of rainfall & or severe weather is a possibility that will need to be watched)

[davidiowx]

Where’s all the rain at? Haven’t had a single drop today..

[sambucol]

A lot of rain in Mont Belvieu, Tx not far from Houston

[DoctorMu]

Empire Live Oak?

Yes, sorry - that’s what I meant. It was a long week! They do great - I have one that’s going nuts.

Just an observation. Rain chances for Friday had been advertised as low - in fact weather app still had 0% for yesterday when I woke up. App and NWS had been showing 80% for today (Saturday) all week.

Result: I got 0.14” yesterday, most in the late morning-early afternoon. The weather app would suddenly show 100% in the next hour, but only 50% for the day. Made no sense. Anyway, a nice unexpected shower yesterday.

And FF to today, waiting for the supposed ‘big event’ and so far, nothing. A little mist - that’s all. Bust so far.

Pretty much nothing here. But that's OK. We're still pretty wet.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS still shows an arctic intrusion fwiw

[jasons2k]

Nothing here. Next.

[DoctorMu]

Each intrusion is colder than the last, going into early February. Just need a bit more depth on the precip. systems for anything wintry. North of Hwy 1*5 has a slight chance. A freeze or three is in the mix for we NW counties.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC is very cold
Also has a major ice storm in our neck of the woods,

[sambucol]

Strat, any temps for SETX?

[Stratton20]

sambucol on the CMC, highs in the upper 20’s for far northern counties, low 30’s for around the houston area and low 40’s at the coast

[brazoriatx]

sambucol on the CMC, highs in the upper 20’s for far northern counties, low 30’s for around the houston area and low 40’s at the coast

Low 40s ain't very cold lol..just another regular cold front

[MontgomeryCoWx]

sambucol on the CMC, highs in the upper 20’s for far northern counties, low 30’s for around the houston area and low 40’s at the coast

Low 40s ain't very cold lol..just another regular cold front

If you want winter weather, don’t live south of I10, and particularly the coast.

Montgomery, Waller, Austin, Grimes, Brazos, Trinity, Walker and sometimes northern Harris County are far more freezing air and more Winter chances than those south of I10. I can be 20s while you’re 40s and that’s a legitimate Arctic front. Probably 3-4x more freezes for me than those south of 10 and 10-12x more freezes than immediate coastal.

[don]

Very thorough discussion from HGX regarding Tuesday.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Key Messages:

① Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Tuesday.

② Marginal risk of strong to severe storms across most of
Southeast TX.

③ Slight risk of excessive rainfall for most of Southeast TX with
widespread 1"-3" totals expected (highest totals near and south
of the I-10 corridor and east of the I-45 corridor).

④ Moderate to strong winds Monday night into Tuesday night with a
Wind Advisory likely needed for portions of Southeast TX during
this timeframe.

⑤ Hazardous marine conditions with offshore gusts up to 40-45 knots
and seas exceeding 10-12 feet Monday night into early Wednesday.
A Gale Watch will likely be needed.

⑥ Cooler weather behind a late Tuesday cold front with freezing
temperatures expected for northern areas Wednesday night.

By Tuesday morning, the upper level trough with an embedded low will
be centered over west TX with the surface low continuing to develop
and deepen near south TX. This deepening of the low is
accompanied by a strengthening LLJ (south to north orientation)
with 850mb winds expected to exceed 70 knots. With winds this
strong aloft, we`re expecting some of this to mix to the surface.
Currently in the grids, we have sustained winds of 20-30 mph
across most of Southeast TX for Tuesday (highest winds near and
south of I-10). So, at this point it`s just a question of which
counties will be in the future Wind Advisory. The MLJ continues
to strengthen as well (70-80+ knots in a southwest to northeast
orientation) with the upper level low expected to take an earlier
negative tilt (over Central TX now as opposed to the ARKLATEX in
earlier model runs) as the 00Z models support a slower progression
of the 500mb low.

00Z models are also in better agreement on the track of the surface
low. The general trend is for the low to move northeastward from
south TX and drift just north of the I-10 corridor on Tuesday
afternoon. This means the instability axis (800-1500 J/kg MUCAPE)
extends through at least the southern half of the CWA. With
sufficient shear, veering winds with height, decent instability,
plentiful PVA from the negative tilting trough, and upper level
diffluence, you`d imagine that the environment is primed for strong
to severe thunderstorms. It does have the potential to be, but
it`ll take a lot of work to destabilize the atmosphere enough to
be supportive of strong/severe storms since we`ll be cool and
stable out ahead of this. The potential is not zero though as
60°F+ dew points are quickly advected into areas south of I-10 by
late Tuesday morning. SPC currently has areas south of a College
Station-Huntsville-Onalaska line outlined in a marginal risk of
severe weather for Tuesday, and they stated a similar theme in
their discussion this morning that the cool/stable air out ahead
of the low is the main limiting factor of a "more substantive
risk". That being said, Tuesday will definitely be a day to stay
weather aware.

There is much greater confidence on the heavy rain that will
accompany this surface low as PW values reach 1.6"-1.7", which is
near or above the daily MAX average (~1.64"). The Euro, Canadian,
and UKMET continue to point towards a 2"+ swath across portions
of Southeast TX for Tuesday. The latest QPF from WPC is in line
with this thinking with 2"-3" totals extending from the coast up
to and past the I-10 corridor. With PW values as high as they are,
we`re likely to see rain rates above 1"/hr, but storm motion
should be fairly quick thanks to the strong winds aloft. High
rainfall rates could still lead to localized flooding in
vulnerable spots though (areas with poor drainage and low-lying
areas). Most of Southeast TX is in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall for Tuesday. Widespread showers/storms are expected
Tuesday morning into the evening, so plan accordingly for your
commutes...it might be a rough one on both sides of the clock. As
the low continues to move eastward, an associated strong cold
front will push through on late Tuesday afternoon/evening. This
will usher in a period of much drier air (PW values drop to near
the 10th percentile by Tuesday night) and near to below normal
temperatures through the end of the work week.

Phew...that was a lot...let`s take a quick break before we continue
with the rest of the long term discussion. I need to stretch my
fingers out anyway. Something something blisters on my fingers...

[Stratton20]

Ill pass on heavy rain and severe storms, no thank you

[Cpv17]

Ill pass on heavy rain and severe storms, no thank you

I’ll gladly take it. Especially the heavy rain part.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If SETX can't get ice/snow, I'll take 3 plus inches of rain to fill up my tanks at the farm. All day every day after the last year.

[Stratton20]

MontgomeryCowx models are showing a pretty cold airmass moving into the US late next week, its just a matter if that airmass can suppress the annoying SE Ridge, CMC does at the end of ita run

[Cpv17]

MontgomeryCowx models are showing a pretty cold airmass moving into the US late next week, its just a matter if that airmass can suppress the annoying SE Ridge, CMC does at the end of ita run

Look at the high in NW Canada.

[Cpv17]

If SETX can't get ice/snow, I'll take 3 plus inches of rain to fill up my tanks at the farm. All day every day after the last year.

It doesn’t rain as much in Weimar as it does in Montgomery County. You won’t be too far from me. I’m pretty much exactly one hour SE of Weimar. And when you live on a farm, rain is almost always welcomed. Gladly take it.

[Stratton20]

Very impressive build up of cold air on the euro (12z) bring that stuff south baby!🥶🥶