Re: July 2023
Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2023 4:47 pm
Looks like less of a chance of rain in CLL, but there's a chance over the next day or so in Houston.
Allegedly, we'll see lower DPs and there are definitely more clouds. Beggars can't be choosers!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Upper level ridging generally centered around the Four Corners and
troffiness across the eastern part of the country will keep us in a
n/nw flow aloft. Disturbances riding southward in this flow, daytime
heating, a weak frontal boundary across ncntl parts of the CWA and
the seabreeze will contribute to some chances of much needed
rain...though just a minority of the area will see much of any
consequence.
Seeing some isolated activity on radar along the frontal boundary
across northeastern zones. This will likely sag southward and expand
somewhat late in the day/evening. Severe wx threat is low overall,
but if we manage to get a rogue stronger cell pop up, some
respectable wind gusts aren`t out of the question. Overall precip
coverage should decrease late this evening, but will maintain some
low POPs across southern parts overnight as an elongated piece of
vorticity pushes toward the coast and offshore.
Surface frontal boundary should be positioned a bit further south on
Sunday, so that`s where the better rain chances should be situated
in the afternoon hours.
In regards to the Heat Advisory for tonight & Sunday: will let the
advisory expire for northern parts of the area this evening and the
current plan is to keep the southern half of the CWA in it for
tomorrow. Lower dewpoints and RH`s north of the "front" should keep
heat indices below criteria there. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
The aforementioned UL ridge over the Four Corners will drift
eastward through mid-week. Though this will correspond with rising
UL pressure heights, the orientation of the ridge will place us
in a north to northeast UL flow regime. This will allow shortwaves
to approach southeast Texas from the northeast, enhancing PVA thus
upward motion. Therefore, it is no surprise the NBM is showing
moderate PoPs (at least in our southern/coastal counties). But
there are signs that the NBM`s PoPs may be too aggressive. A plume
of Saharan Dust is traversing westward across the Caribbean. The
dust plume could begin impacting the southeast Texas atmosphere as
soon as Monday with Tuesday-Thursday being the likely dust plume
days. Convective development tends to be limited by the associated
ML dry air that accompanies the Saharan Dust. Therefore, we
continue to forecast lower PoPs than suggested by the NBM.
However, the presence of incoming shortwaves from the northeast
made us opt to keep the modest daily PoPs over the southern half
of our CWA through much of next week. PoPs are relatively low in
our northern counties.
Regarding temperatures, the heat will still be cranking. Current
NBM leaning temp grids show widespread highs of 95-100F (low-90s
at the coast) with heat index values averaging around 104-107F.
Though technically just below heat advisory criteria, these
temperatures are still hot enough to warrant heat safety
precautions. Overnight lows will range from the mid-70s in rural
and particularly northern portions of our CWA, to low-80s near the
coast and within some of the warmest urban heat island spots.
By week`s end, global models suggest the ridge may drift back to
the west. A farther west ridge coupled with less Saharan Dust
could bring a better chance of rain to the CWA. For now, we are
not increasing expecting end of week PoPs.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Anticipate that we`ll see some iso-sct shra/tstms develop after
21z in association with daytime heating, a diffuse frontal
boundary across northern parts of the area and also weak
seabreeze boundary across southern parts. Varying model solutions
on overall coverage & intensity this evening and probably
dependent on outflow and boundary interactions. Small chances of
precip may persist overnight as some weak upper disturbances track
into, or near, the region in the nnw flow aloft. Outside of any
convection, VFR conditions and light winds should persist. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with seas 2 to 3 feet are expected
to prevail through late next week. There will be a daily risk of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of
the upcoming week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 100 75 101 / 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 99 78 98 / 40 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 81 91 / 30 30 20 30
Allegedly, we'll see lower DPs and there are definitely more clouds. Beggars can't be choosers!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Upper level ridging generally centered around the Four Corners and
troffiness across the eastern part of the country will keep us in a
n/nw flow aloft. Disturbances riding southward in this flow, daytime
heating, a weak frontal boundary across ncntl parts of the CWA and
the seabreeze will contribute to some chances of much needed
rain...though just a minority of the area will see much of any
consequence.
Seeing some isolated activity on radar along the frontal boundary
across northeastern zones. This will likely sag southward and expand
somewhat late in the day/evening. Severe wx threat is low overall,
but if we manage to get a rogue stronger cell pop up, some
respectable wind gusts aren`t out of the question. Overall precip
coverage should decrease late this evening, but will maintain some
low POPs across southern parts overnight as an elongated piece of
vorticity pushes toward the coast and offshore.
Surface frontal boundary should be positioned a bit further south on
Sunday, so that`s where the better rain chances should be situated
in the afternoon hours.
In regards to the Heat Advisory for tonight & Sunday: will let the
advisory expire for northern parts of the area this evening and the
current plan is to keep the southern half of the CWA in it for
tomorrow. Lower dewpoints and RH`s north of the "front" should keep
heat indices below criteria there. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
The aforementioned UL ridge over the Four Corners will drift
eastward through mid-week. Though this will correspond with rising
UL pressure heights, the orientation of the ridge will place us
in a north to northeast UL flow regime. This will allow shortwaves
to approach southeast Texas from the northeast, enhancing PVA thus
upward motion. Therefore, it is no surprise the NBM is showing
moderate PoPs (at least in our southern/coastal counties). But
there are signs that the NBM`s PoPs may be too aggressive. A plume
of Saharan Dust is traversing westward across the Caribbean. The
dust plume could begin impacting the southeast Texas atmosphere as
soon as Monday with Tuesday-Thursday being the likely dust plume
days. Convective development tends to be limited by the associated
ML dry air that accompanies the Saharan Dust. Therefore, we
continue to forecast lower PoPs than suggested by the NBM.
However, the presence of incoming shortwaves from the northeast
made us opt to keep the modest daily PoPs over the southern half
of our CWA through much of next week. PoPs are relatively low in
our northern counties.
Regarding temperatures, the heat will still be cranking. Current
NBM leaning temp grids show widespread highs of 95-100F (low-90s
at the coast) with heat index values averaging around 104-107F.
Though technically just below heat advisory criteria, these
temperatures are still hot enough to warrant heat safety
precautions. Overnight lows will range from the mid-70s in rural
and particularly northern portions of our CWA, to low-80s near the
coast and within some of the warmest urban heat island spots.
By week`s end, global models suggest the ridge may drift back to
the west. A farther west ridge coupled with less Saharan Dust
could bring a better chance of rain to the CWA. For now, we are
not increasing expecting end of week PoPs.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Anticipate that we`ll see some iso-sct shra/tstms develop after
21z in association with daytime heating, a diffuse frontal
boundary across northern parts of the area and also weak
seabreeze boundary across southern parts. Varying model solutions
on overall coverage & intensity this evening and probably
dependent on outflow and boundary interactions. Small chances of
precip may persist overnight as some weak upper disturbances track
into, or near, the region in the nnw flow aloft. Outside of any
convection, VFR conditions and light winds should persist. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with seas 2 to 3 feet are expected
to prevail through late next week. There will be a daily risk of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of
the upcoming week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 100 75 101 / 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 99 78 98 / 40 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 81 91 / 30 30 20 30
