October 2023

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191112
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
612 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

A spy with my eye a front! But is it a `real` cold front? Eh....not
really. However, there is lower humidity behind the boundary. Let`s
start the short term by talking about this morning. We begin today
much milder than we did yesterday with patchy areas of fog. Dew
points are on the rise as onshore flow pushes moisture northward
from the Gulf. This flow will become more westward, and eventually
northwestward, as a weak frontal boundary pushes southeast across
the CWA today. Temperatures are expected to rise well into the 80s
this afternoon. Couldn`t rule out temperatures reaching 90F in some
communities. We`ll keep the air muggy through this morning into
early afternoon. However, drier air in the front`s wake will push
southward resulting in a noticeable drop in the humidity by day`s
end, especially over our northern and western counties. It may take
until Friday for these lower dew points to reach the coast.

The drier air will allow temperatures to drop more quickly
overnight, with Friday`s morning lows mostly in the 50s (low-60s in
the heart of the urban heat island, mid-60s near the beaches). Low
humidity will rein supreme on Friday but with hotter temperatures.
Y`all didn`t think we`d get through the rest of October without at
least one more visit from the 90s, right? Our temp grids continue to
show widespread low-90s for highs on Friday. At least the humidity
will be low. The lower humidity will once again allow evening and
overnight temperatures to drop quickly on Friday night with lows in
the upper-50s to low-60s.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Another warm day is on tap on Saturday with a prevailing llvl
ssw/sw flow, dewpoints in the 50s, and a fair amount of sunshine.

Things begin to moderate as we head into Sunday and early next
week. Upper level ridge flattens a bit and tracks to the east as
the next western trof digs into the Desert Southwest & Baja
region. Closer to the surface, a more prevailing southeast wind
will set up. Increasing moisture off the Gulf will bring RH`s and
overnight lows up. Daytime highs will trend downward into the mid 80s
(though still above seasonable norms) with the increased cloud
cover. Rain chances will re-enter the forecast Mon, but remain on
the low end considering lack of overall forcing or a focusing
mechanism. Chances should slowly tick upwards mid-late week as
the upper trof makes some slow eastward progress. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Areas of patchy fog this morning should break over the next couple
of hours. Generally VFR vis and cigs will prevail through the rest
of the day. Winds are expected to increase out of the southwest
this morning. An approaching frontal boundary is likely to result
in decreasing winds by either late this afternoon or this evening.
We will need to monitor the potential for patchy fog late tonight
into tomorrow morning near the location of the slow moving frontal
boundary. Current guidance suggest the best chance of patchy fog
will be south of I-10.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Light to occasionally moderate south to southwest winds will
prevail into Saturday. A very weak frontal boundary may very briefly
sag into the nearshore waters on Friday, but will quickly wash
out. A more prevalent southeast wind is anticipated late this
weekend into much of next week. Look for gradually building seas
as the days progress and the fetch of onshore winds lengthen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 87 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams

[don]

NOAA published their winter forecast.They're expecting classic El Nino conditions this season. With above normal rainfall across the south. And near normal temps.

From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

[brazoriatx]

NOAA published their winter forecast.They're expecting classic El Nino conditions this season. With above normal rainfall across the south. And near normal temps.

From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

So a better than normal chance for some wintry precip here? North of hwy 1*5 of course.....lol

[Stratton20]

I think we will have plenty of chances to see some wintry precipitation this winter, cant get much better than an active sub tropical jet setting up shop across the south, and dont need extreme cold either,

[Ptarmigan]

GFS, CMC, Euro all showing 2 FROPA with rain in the last week of October October 26-27 and the 30/31st.

Weather looks great that last week into November.

November looks fairly average which means we could be in for a cool to cold December.

Then a warm January. Followed by a February winter storm.

January Thaw. February Freeze.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest rainfall forecast model from GFS. Some areas could see 10 inches of rain.

[DoctorMu]

Latest rainfall forecast model from GFS. Some areas could see 10 inches of rain.

GFS + some of the Ensembles are mixing the EPAC moisture into 1 or more fronts. It could be an unsettled last week of October.

[DoctorMu]

It's too bad SETX can't benefit from an El Niño-driven SJT during the summer, when we could really use it!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's too bad SETX can't benefit from an El Niño-driven SJT during the summer, when we could really use it!

You can thank the Mexican Desert for that

[Stratton20]

Man thats a very chilly 18z GFS run, highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s for se texas with overrunning precipitation for days, of course its slower with the arrival of the front, but colder as well

[DoctorMu]

Man thats a very chilly 18z GFS run, highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s for se texas with overrunning precipitation for days, of course its slower with the arrival of the front, but colder as well

CMC run is even colder. Unfortunately, the FROPA doesn't plow through until the day before Halloween.

[don]

NOAA's winter forecast maps.

[don]

NOAA published their winter forecast.They're expecting classic El Nino conditions this season. With above normal rainfall across the south. And near normal temps.

From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

So a better than normal chance for some wintry precip here? North of hwy 1*5 of course.....lol

El Ninos have been known to feature winter storms here.But it may be more in the form of ice instead of snow this year.As arctic air intrusions will tend to be more shallow in nature.And often undercut with warm air and tropical moisture from the Pacific .

[sambucol]

When is that run for?

[Stratton20]

sambucol its for the 26-31 st or around halloween and maybe a little beyond that, models are not in agreement on the timing of the frontal passage, but generally thats the timeframe to watch for a pretty significant cold front

[user:null]

It's too bad SETX can't benefit from an El Niño-driven SJT during the summer, when we could really use it!

You can thank the Mexican Desert for that

At least here in SETX, all the discussion regarding summer rainfall was strictly "sea-breeze storms + any tropical waves". I've never known the STJ to even have a presence at all (or, if it did, very weakened/confined to northern tiers of the country).

Otherwise, regarding dry spells, there's lots of conflict that I've seen regarding whether Mexican Desert "capping" is the culprit vs 500mb high pressure subsidence in/of itself.

[user:null]

The models still think -PDO is likely for winter ... except that it's taken a hard weakening trend lately.
https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/sta ... BIxajcZBUQ

[Stratton20]

, the GFS continues to come in more aggressive with the front and really plunges temperatures behind the front, looking more like a cold halloween for most if not all of the state

[MontgomeryCoWx]

, the GFS continues to come in more aggressive with the front and really plunges temperatures behind the front, looking more like a cold halloween for most if not all of the state

Bring it!

[Pas_Bon]

GFS is showing 30° low temps for the northern metro Houston area on Halloween. Whoa.