December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[Ptarmigan]

Another interesting week ahead.

[JackCruz]

Amarillo is having LOTS of fun. Looking at Amarillo's forecast on Accuwether.com it seems as though they'll be having ice/sleet/snow from the 17th through the 19th and around Christmas Eve and Christmas lows will be below 20 degrees. I'm guessing that that they're already above average in snowfall..or will be pretty soon?

As of this moment our Christmas temp looks to be around 71-75 ....but that can change.

[txsnowmaker]

Amarillo is having LOTS of fun. Looking at Amarillo's forecast on Accuwether.com it seems as though they'll be having ice/sleet/snow from the 17th through the 19th and around Christmas Eve and Christmas lows will be below 20 degrees. I'm guessing that that they're already above average in snowfall..or will be pretty soon?

As of this moment our Christmas temp looks to be around 71-75 ....but that can change.

Not to get OT, but with what has happened with the Texans this season, and especially today, ANYTHING is possible...

[sambucol]

Amarillo is having LOTS of fun. Looking at Amarillo's forecast on Accuwether.com it seems as though they'll be having ice/sleet/snow from the 17th through the 19th and around Christmas Eve and Christmas lows will be below 20 degrees. I'm guessing that that they're already above average in snowfall..or will be pretty soon?

As of this moment our Christmas temp looks to be around 71-75 ....but that can change.

Not to get OT, but with what has happened with the Texans this season, and especially today, ANYTHING is possible...

Heck, yeah!!!!

[JackCruz]

Discussion

This forecast period represents some kind of quandary for forecast meteorologists. Nothing truly extreme is likely to occur around Houston (not counting shower and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. At the same time, there are many atmospheric variable which, if interact a certain way, would make for serious (cold) changes in temperature and increasing potential for precipitation.

The easy part of the next couple of days. Temperatures will tend to warm, skies should be in the "variable cloudiness" zone, and rain chances appear to be minor at best. But events in California and the Desert Southwest speak of change. Heavy mountain snows, intense lowland thunderstorms, and an increase in wind velocity aloft spell trouble as we enter the middle of the week. Wednesday should be quite warm in Houston (80 deg F for an afternoon high), but quite muggy, too. Strong or severe thunderstorms over C TX, OK, AR and the lower Missouri Valley may be felt in Southeast Texas on Thursday.
Advertisement


But the cold front associated with the convection will stall across the Lone Star State in late week. With new energy coming out of the subtropical jet stream, cyclogenesis should take shape, although quite slowly, in New Mexico as we enter the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will organize along the frontal structure straddling the Red River, and Houston may see yet again the chance for some beneficial heavy rainfall (an un-needed severe weather as well) on Saturday.

The weekend storm is very important for many reasons. If this feature turns into a strong cyclone as I think it might, colder air will be pulled southward through the Great Plains. On the idea that a cAk vortex forms as the low enters S ON and QC, then a veritable pattern change could occur where colder values have a grip on the U.S. to the right of the Continental Divide. With a huge stratospheric warming event forecast across Arctic Canada and the ever-vigorous southern branch jet stream supplying moisture and energy, Texas and the Gulf Coast could get stuck in a frequently wet and cold alignment during the last week of December.

Keep your eyes on the weekend. Because a minor storm could very well translate to a milder winter outlook for many. Then again, if the low pressure area is as intense as I think it may be, a while new world of weather awaits us, beginning with the holidays!

From Houston weather examiner

[srainhoutx]

A very unsettled pattern is shaping up in a very un La Nina like weather regime creating a lot of havoc in forecasting. Clouds and posible light rain/drizzle look to be in order before a warm front retreats N on Tuesday. To our W, another upper air disturbance is taking shape near S CA. This feature should begin to head N and E into the Upper Mid West on Wedensday/Thursday allowing a frontal boundary to sag S into our area. Shower and even some rumbles of thunder may be possble as the front/trough approaches. The fly in the ointment is where does this boundary stall? Guidance is in good agreement that a much stronger upper low will drop S into CA/AZ and possibly as far S as the Baja Region. SW flow aloft will likely allow over running conditions to become established and rain chances look to remain in the picture throughout the weekend. Early indications are the upper low will remain stationary or move extremly slowly E next Monday and Tuesday. There are some indications that a potent storm system will develop as moisture stream E along the noisy sub tropical jet with multiple disturbances. All in all after a bit of moderation in temps the next couple of days, a return cloudy/cool and dreary conditions appears to be in the works. This is still a very volatile forecast and further 'fine tuning' can be expected.

[biggerbyte]

Short term... Warm to mild/cool. No "cold" weather. Long term.. We'll see.

[wxman57]

Models continue to back away from any significant cold through this weekend, not that they had any real cold temps for us to begin with. Looking at the GFS through 15 days, I don't see any significant cold building in Canada until around the 27th, and that's in central rather than western Canada. Canadian doesn't have much cold air in Canada through 10 days. Can't get really cold down south without much cold up north to begin with.

Could have a chance for some snow up north (TX Panhandle into OK) when the upper low kicks out across the area Mon/Tue. Nothing heavy indicated.

Here's the latest meteogram for IAH through 7 days. Looks pretty nice to me (i.e., not cold).

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is a bit 'colder' early next week. It does suggest a front stalling along or near the Coast and perhaps a coastal low/trough developing as the weekend storm system heads NE. Thursday into Saturday appears to be rather wet if the Euro is correct. We will see.

[wxman57]

In recent weeks, the Euro has tended to be too slow with weather systems and the GFS too fast. Canadian has been closest. In this case, though, the Euro is much faster than the Canadian and way farther south with the upper low. Speed-wise, the Euro is similar to the 12Z GFS though the GFS has a weaker low farther north. I'm not inclined to buy the Euro solution yet, but I can't say its solution is impossible. Would still just mean cool rain for southeast Texas. Snow for the Panhandle and northern OK.

[wxman57]

Latest WeatherSpark forecast for Houston:
http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=305 ... 0,smeisg:1

[Ptarmigan]

Latest WeatherSpark forecast for Houston:
http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=305 ... 0,smeisg:1

Cool site.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro Ensembles paint an interesting picture across Texas early next week. If that guidance continues with a more southerly track of the upper air disturbance, wintry mischief may not be out of the question for areas as far S as Central TX and points N and E.

[jgreak]

Dude, you are living in the wrong location if you want all of these demands of yours to be met. Have you ever considered moving north?

[Belmer]

JGREAK,FOR YOUR INFO, I SPENT 10 YEARS IN FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA. ON THE BORDER OF THE ARIZONA DESERT.
I EXPERIENCED BITTER COLD AND SNOW EVERY WINTER AND MILD SUMMERS. FLAGSTAFF IS 7,000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL . ITS AIR IS SO MUCH MORE CLEAR AND CLEAN THE HOUSTONS DIRTY STICKY SMOGGY AIR.
I ALSO SPENT 3 YEARS IN EL PASO TEXAS WITH LOW SUMMER HUMIDITY.
AFTER THE BITTER HOT SUMMER HOUSTON HAD, GOD OWES US BITTER COLD AND SNOW.
AND JGREAK,,, YOU WILL LEARN THIS ON THIS BOARD,, LIVE BY THE MODELS,DIE BY THE MODELS. THE WEATHER MODELS ARE USELESS 3 DAYS OUT.

AZ_ARIZONA_DESERT,
As you know, Flagstaff, AZ is very different from Houston. We have our warm Summers, dry Summers, and wet Summers, vice versa in Winter as well. You are correct, this past summer was indeed, very warm! Not just the state of Texas, but for much of the country, (except the Pacific Northwest) was unusually warm. That is part of our climate and climate change. Now some, would forecast this as being Global Warming. I however, will not give my thoughts on that just because as Mike Bettes said on the Weather Channel a few weeks ago, that is being another topic you would/should not discuss at the dinner table. (ex: Abortion, Politics, Religion). Now, for your three years in El Paso, well, there weather often is different from ours too. They do get pretty hot during the Summer, but it's more of a dry heat rather than here, a humid air zone which makes it feel in your terms, 'sticky'. So it does not feel as hot as what the actual temperature would read on the thermostat. So my guess from your post, and many other post you have made on this forum, is that you have not lived in Houston for a long time. My guess would be no longer than two years. I could be wrong.. Nonetheless, this is Houston weather, and if this is your new home now, you need to accept and understand Houston is, well, what's a good word.... interesting. We have crazy Summer's, and very crazy Winter's. Just because we had a very unusual, brutal, hot summer here in the South, does not mean we're going to have a crazy cold winter this year. That's like saying, if we have a very cold Winter this year, we deserve another hot Summer next year as well. *Knock on wood.*
So, to conclude things up, with your quote/statement, "YOU WILL LEARN THIS ON THIS BOARD,, LIVE BY THE MODELS,DIE BY THE MODELS. THE WEATHER MODELS ARE USELESS 3 DAYS OUT." Well, to make this simple, if you know anything about models, it is that models always change. Why there is sometimes more accuracy three days out in the model/weather world, that too, can be very inaccurate. Things can even change overnight, and we have seen that many many times during Hurricane season. Just because you see 5+ days out now from the GFS, NAM, etc, do not put a bet down on that model. Models are based off many other things as well when it comes to predicting the weather for a long range, and even a med/short range. Meteorologist you see on TV; like Frank on Local 2, Gene N. on Khou, and Tim, on ABC, they too also rely on models, with also a few opinions of their own maybe thrown out in the forecast as well. Weather is very interesting and isn't easy by any means of predicting. Our climate continues to change every day and why there may be no clear answer anytime soon, it's something we must monitor.

Now, for this 'disappointment' as some would see it for this upcoming weekend to early next week, well don't let it ruin your day or the hopes of this Winter. Again, it is still 5+ days away, and the new models that come in either tonight or even into tomorrow morning can paint a winter wonderland across our area. That's how big models can flip flop sometimes. Now, I just don't see that happening, as that is just an example. (Though would be fairly interesting if that did happen. -haha). (Also, I am from Pasadena, but I am currently in San Marcos (halfway from San Antonio and Austin) because I am attending college here at Texas State University- and I remember checking the weather forecast for this area, and they had 74 degrees this Friday for the high, and 35 degrees with snow on Saturday ...for the high. I woke up the next morning to see if that remained, and it was 73 degrees for Saturday. THAT, is just how big things can change overnight). But give it a few more days before we really start looking into what the forecast is for this upcoming weekend and first half of next week. And this should by no means be a really disappointment anyway. Models are indicating at least rain in our area. Though, it might not be snow, we can use any type of precip. what we get in this horrible drought. And whether it does or does not rain here in Houston this weekend and up to early next week, there does seem to be good amounts in parts of Texas, and they need it just as bad, if worse, than we do. Don't get angry at Srain or anyone else because we believe it's going to get very cold, because we base that off our models that are given and we simply pass on the message. If we didn't say anything, well, this would be a very dead forum wouldn't it?

So patience my friend. Patience is a virtue, and keep crossing your fingers for cold weather and the white stuff, because you can never say 'never' here in Houston. And please, the CAPS really needs to come off. Every time I read one of your post, I feel like I'm yelling while I'm reading it. Though, do as you choose.

[biggerbyte]

Hey there, Belmer. I'm afraid Arizona has been a part of our forum for years. I see you have only been since January. This goes way back to the old KHOU forum. We've asked him on many ocassions to kill the CAPS. You are wasting your breath. Ever since Dan Meador passed away, we've all grown soft hearted and tolerant. People are different, and things happen for a reason. Sometimes we have to read between the lines and accept the challanges that others have that we might not. Forgive me, but you know, ALL CAPS is not the only annoying thing to read in a forum? Think trying to read a book with no paragraphs..

CYA

[Belmer]

Hey there, Belmer. I'm afraid Arizona has been a part of our forum for years. I see you have only been since January. This goes way back to the old KHOU forum. We've asked him on many ocassions to kill the CAPS. You are wasting your breath. Ever since Dan Meador passed away, we've all grown soft hearted and tolerant. People are different, and things happen for a reason. Sometimes we have to read between the lines and accept the challanges that others have that we might not. Forgive me, but you know, ALL CAPS is not the only annoying thing to read in a forum? Think trying to read a book with no paragraphs..

CYA

Hello there biggerbyte,

Yes, I joined last January, though I have been a 'guest' or watching this form grow well before I joined. I can't remember correctly, but I think I was itching to make a comment on a post and just had to join and that is how I am now a member on this forum.
That is understandable and no heart feelings at all. I imagine reading a 'book' with no paragraphs would be hard as well... But boy, does CAPS really get your attention or what? I haven't seen too many post from Arizona but recently, though, it will just be something I know will accept throughout my membership on this forum!

[C2G]

Bring on the warmth.........this winter's already been too long for me. You want snow? Move to Fargo, Green bay, or Canada.
Living in a sub-tropical climate doesn't afford you many opportunities to see frozen anything.

[ticka1]

Time for wishcasting!!!!

[Andrew]

Ok guys lets settle down and get back on topic or I will start deleting posts....