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biggerbyte wrote:

Paul Robison wrote:1. Am from West Virginia, the mountain state.

2. I apologize for my curiosity. I will not come back to this forum. Goodbye!

You are welcome here as far as I am concerned. If you are offended by anyone, there is always the ignore feature.

bye.

I will post my own e-mail this time....

Significant heavy rainfall event increasingly likely on Tuesday-Wednesday with threat for flooding.

Flash Flood Watch in effect for all SE TX counties through Wednesday evening.

Factors continue to come together to support a prolonged period of excessive rainfall from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening. Coastal warm front will approach the coast on Tuesday morning and slow down as large scale lift arrives from the west yielding the formation of strong showers and thunderstorms along and north of this boundary. Upper level jet is forecast to split apart across the region favoring strong upper level divergence within a very moist air mass with moisture levels near the maximum values for early January. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will expand throughout the day across the region.

Warm front will attempt to progress inland Tuesday evening, but this is suspect as widespread rain north of the boundary may help lock it in place. Training heavy to excessive rainfall to continue along and north of the boundary. With moisture levels very high expect rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour in the stronger storms.

On Wednesday the warm front may reach into our northern counties while a cool front slowly approaches from the west with a slow moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms may also continue to develop in the warm sector and train across the area.

Amounts:
Models are really hammering the area with 4-6 inches of rainfall, but differ on their placement with two models favoring the NW ½ of the region, one the southern ½ of the region and the other toward the LA/TX state line. The heaviest rainfall will occur along and north of the warm front and how long this front takes to move northward will determine the areas at greatest risk. If the boundary lingers near the coast for an extended period of time the heaviest rains will fall along the US 59 corridor. It is just nearly impossible to determine where the heaviest rainfall axis will reside until it has developed. It appears the best upper level divergence is aimed at our NW counties, but models may be too extensive with convection in this region especially if a large storm cluster develops closer to the coast and helps “rob” the inflowing moisture.

Will continue with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals of 5-7 inches. Short term rainfall rates will near or exceed 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance so some significant run-off is likely resulting in major rises on area watersheds. Street flooding and ponding is likely.

There could be some serious issues for the Wednesday morning commute depending on if the axis of heavy rainfall sets up over the urban areas Tuesday night.

Residents are urged to review their flood safety measures and remember to never drive into high water….Turn Around Don’t Drown!

After reveiwing the WGRFC contingency forecast this afternoon with basin average amounts of 4.0 inches it appears to tipping point from minor flooding to when things are going to go really bad is between 4 and 5 inches.

We are trying out a new forecasting model for tropical cyclones with this event whcih couples ET surge and HPC QPF to producing hydrographs on the Harris County bayous...looks promising for our next hurricane event.

ET surge is showing a 1.5-2.0 foot water level rise due to strong ESE winds piling the water into the mouth of the Houston Ship Channel

Showing some of the expected gravity of this event HGX is holding a partners conference call at 1000am Tuesday...rare for a non-tropical threat

Paul Robison wrote:"Someone could be trolling...."

No, I am not trolling. But I have seen damage from such storm systems that rival, sometimes even surpass damage done by legendary hurricanes. I personally believe that the Houston area will share the fate of Joplin, Mo., not too many years ago.

What in the world?
I don't see Houston getting an EF-5 tornado in the near future. We did have an EF-4 in November of 1992 in Channelview, but major tornadoes are few and far between around here. We're more likely to get EF-0 or 1's.
Biggest threat will be flooding, and evacuating "drivings" the last thing you want to do.
We won't have Biblical floods to rival Claudette of 79 or Allison of 01, so this evacuation idea is over-kill.

Anyway, I agree with Ed. Cold without snow or sleet is miserable. Give me those hot and muggy days over that crud.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.UPDATE... UPDATED GRAPHICASTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S MM BRIEFING OUT ON OUR WEB PAGE COMMUNICATING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT(S). THIS EVENING`S LOWERING PRESSURES OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO IS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE COUPLE OF MID-WEEK DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS VERY ADVERTISED EVENT IS STILL FORECAST TO COME TO FRUITION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES UP FROM THE COASTAL BEND. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT...IN TANDEM WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE THE (THERMO)DYNAMICS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE WIND/TORNADO SITUATION. THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GOOD TURNING (BACKING) OF THE LOWER 3KM WINDS LEADING TO HIGHER HELICITIES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW. THIS INDICATES A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER STRONG CELLS DISPLAYING ROTATING UPDRAFT STRUCTURE...COULD LEAD TO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH A ISOLATED TORNADO MENTION. THE MAIN THREAT STILL REMAINS HIGH RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE FALL WITHIN THE 24 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS THREAT. TRAINING CELLS...EITHER IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME TOMORROW OR AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...WILL CREATE AVERAGE AREAWIDE 3 TO 5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). DARK HOUR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY HEIGHTENS THE NEED FOR STRESSING THIS FLOODING THREAT. 31

Agreeing with Jeff.. If we get said warm front north of the area, then we will increase the storm threat as thing destabilize a bit more. Any severe storm threat would be on Wednesday, per current forecast.

Stay tuned..

NWS Houston is really hammering this event and not being last minute conservative with statements. Stay tuned! This beats watching the Alabama beatdown game so far...

Am watching the upcoming event and noticed that Spotter participation was not mentioned in NWS. Don't think we need a formal invitation (if you know what I mean)

Looking forward.

Well, folks. Today's the day. HGX already seeing radar returns in the gulf, in case you haven't noticed. Maybe things won't be so bad after all.
STILL:
Pray for me, ya'll.

Whens the worst suppose to get through the Houston area? Should the rain be gone by 1pm Wednesday

gocuse22 wrote:Whens the worst suppose to get through the Houston area? Should the rain be gone by 1pm Wednesday

1:00? Very unlikely. The main line of storms won't probably push through yet at that time.
Everything should be out of here between 7-10pm Wednesday evening.

I was thinking the main line will push through around 11am-1pm Wednesday

gocuse22 wrote:I was thinking the main line will push through around 11am-1pm Wednesday

I mean a few computer models may show different timing, but the ones I have seen show this thing exiting the greater Houston area in the late afternoon/early evening on Wednesday.
Also, had a chance to watch the 10pm news this evening with David and ch. 13 with Tim and both of there computer models were between 5-8pm. Just really depends if this storm slows down more or pushes through a little faster. Timing seems to be a little difficult to predict right now, we'll really need to watch how it sets up tomorrow and the speed of it to see if the models have been consistent.
Not saying this thing could be out of here by 1-2pm Wednesday, just very unlikely at this time and don't see much support from models that it will get out of our area that soon.

The biggest time to be watching out for flooding rains and possible severe weather will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday Afternoon. I think the 5pm - 8pm timeframe for things being out of here or winding down sounds about right.

Activity already picking up, especially in south Texas.

Hey guys great job so far on keeping up with the system and providing thoughtful information. Keep this up especially as we go into today and into the next couple of days. Remember when posting reports please post where you are located (if it is not updated on your profile) and try not to over-exaggerate the situation. One of the biggest draws of this forum is the accurate information we provide and lets continue that. Keep up the good work everyone.

Heavy showers developing N and SW of Houston metro currently. Flash Flood Watch continues as well as a slight chance for severe weather overnight and into Wednesday. Be aware of the weather conditions through out the day which will likely lead to a very messy drive home this evening. Avoid driving through high water if you do not know the depth.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND
WHARTON.

* FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY MAINLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL EVENT...STREET FLOODING
MAY BECOME COMMON TONIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL MAY BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING MAY BECOME
INVOLVED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE GROUND TO QUICKLY
SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IF POSSIBLE AVOID TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
DELAYS IF TRAVEL CANNOT BE PUT OFF TO A LATER TIME.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

Already starting to see some training in Southern Harris and West of Galveston as storms from the east collide with storms from the west.

Picked up 1.4 inches this morning