December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[harpman]

From what I read, as long as that southern ridge stays in place it will be hard for the arctic air to reach the gulf coast. Am I off base here?

[brooksgarner]

5:45am 12/31/14 .... Isn't it amazing to see single digits in the panhandle, but no chance of the core of the arctic air making it into Houston? We'll probably not even see freezing over the next several days... Talk about dodging a bullet. It's these kind of days....... I am glad we're not dealing with crippled travel locally. Interestingly, the models so far haven't been, "wrong", as many suspected they would be -- since models are so notorious for not handling arctic air well. (I'm in for Chita thru Friday on the morning news... if you're up, tune in.)

Capture.JPG

[unome]

I don't do Facebook, but if there was a "like" button on here, I'ld use it for this post - thank you for participating !

5:45am 12/31/14 .... Isn't it amazing to see single digits in the panhandle, but no chance of the core of the arctic air making it into Houston? We'll probably not even see freezing over the next several days... Talk about dodging a bullet. It's these kind of days....... I am glad we're not dealing with crippled travel locally. Interestingly, the models so far haven't been, "wrong", as many suspected they would be -- since models are so notorious for not handling arctic air well. (I'm in for Chita thru Friday on the morning news... if you're up, tune in.)

Capture.JPG

[brooksgarner]

ha! thanks!

[srainhoutx]

The latest RGEM continues to paint an icy stripe along and just N of the I-35 Corridor up to the Abilene, Ft Worth area and possibly the Shreveport areas. The ice thread extends across much of Oklahoma into Southern Missouri and Western Arkansas. Be safe out there for our neighbors that are under the threat for icing tonight!

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
807 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE MORNING
OF NEW YEARS DAY...

.A SHALLOW...COLD...ARCTIC AIR-MASS HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEW YEARS
DAY. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THIS NEW YEARS EVE AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF NEW YEARS
DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TODAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO BOERNE TO BURNET LINE. MOST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH...BUT A AREAS OF
SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1/4 INCH. WITH STEEP ROAD INCLINES FOUND
OVER MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY...EVEN A
FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNT OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH COULD
PRODUCE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

TXZ171-172-183>190-312300-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WS.W.0003.141231T1407Z-150101T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
807 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY (NEW YEARS DAY).

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE ON MANY ELEVATED
SURFACES AND ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE A TRACE TO ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HILL
COUNTRY.

[brooksgarner]

It's interesting that the National Weather Service in San Antonio is going so much colder than even the GFS -- a computer models which is still significantly farther north on the ice zone. This is a reflection of the model's inability to fully understand just how dense and cold this low-level arctic air really is -- and why it's important to have human meteorologists analyze the data. (Reason #1 that "apps" on smart phones are generally good for nothing when real weather hits.)

It appears, still, that Houston's region will stay safely "plain rain". (This map shows about the max southern extent of icing in pink. It's the new, higher-res GFS.)

While this map is the forecast for tomorrow afternoon, even the earlier daybreak map keeps the icy mix very far north along a line from DFW to Midland... )

gfs_ptype_slp_tx_7.png

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at observations across Central and E Texas into Western Louisiana show near or just below freezing temperatures at Georgetown near Austin. Temperatures in Lufkin are near 34-36 and in Jasper into the Piney Woods E Texas and Western Louisiana near Dequincy temperatures are near the 34-36F range. Dewpoints here in NW Harris County have dropped to 32 and the air temperature is 39F.

[srainhoutx]

The very cold upper trough is over the San Diego area and the much expected closed core upper low has indeed closed off over Southern California into the NW Mexico Baja area. The disturbance that was just SW of that upper trough over the Eastern Pacific yesterday is now ejecting E across Northern Mexico and will be our upper air disturbance that should bring all the wintry mischief across Texas this afternoon into tomorrow.

[Katdaddy]

We had a light snow band just NW of Ft Worth overnight.

[Portastorm]

The surface temps and dewpoints continue to slowly fall here in Austin. It's going to be real close in the city in terms of icing. Still think we may end up at 32 or 33 which shouldn't be too bad. However, I'm not so confident in that if the trend continues. To show you how much temps in Austin can differ, I live about 9 miles as the crow flies southwest of downtown. When I left my house it was 34 degrees. It was 38-39 when I got downtown this morning for work.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
919 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Calls to county officials along the I-10 corridor have confirmed
that road conditions are becoming more treacherous. With
subfreezing temperatures anticipated throughout the day, in
addition to light freezing drizzle, the Winter Storm Warning
bumped up to begin now, as opposed to 6 PM. Additional freezing
precipitation, with potentially heavier amounts, is possible
tonight and early Thursday. Total ice accumulations may approach
1/4 inch in some areas.

Johnson

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO...STEPHENVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE
LINE...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO ROCKWALL TO WACO
TO TEMPLE...

.THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE DALLAS AND WACO AREAS.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO GATESVILLE LINE. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA. THE WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN ON
THURSDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141-142-010000-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150101T2100Z/
YOUNG-JACK-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-ERATH-COMANCHE-MILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...
GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE
910 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY WEST OF A LINE
FROM JACKSBORO TO STEPHENVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND SLEET.

* OTHER IMPACTS...OVERPASSES...BRIDGES...AND ELEVATED SURFACES
WILL BE THE FIRST TO ACCUMULATE. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS
WELL AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

TXZ119-120-134-145-158-159-010000-
/O.EXA.KFWD.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150101T2100Z/
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-ELLIS-HILL-BELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...HILLSBORO...KILLEEN...
TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO
910 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SLEET BETWEEN ONE TENTH
AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH

* OTHER IMPACTS...OVERPASSES...BRIDGES...AND ELEVATED SURFACES
WILL BE THE FIRST TO ACCUMULATE. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS
WELL AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

&&

$$

TXZ091>094-102>104-117-118-131>133-143-144-156-157-010000-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150101T2100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-PARKER-TARRANT-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...
LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE
910 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SLEET BETWEEN ONE TENTH
AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH

* OTHER IMPACTS...OVERPASSES...BRIDGES...AND ELEVATED SURFACES
WILL BE THE FIRST TO ACCUMULATE. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS
WELL AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Multiple impact Winter Storm heading for Texas.

Cold rain expected for all of SE TX with ice likely over portions of SW, WC, and N TX this afternoon-early Friday.

Winter Storm Warnings for ice accumulation in effect from Del Rio to west of Fort Worth. Travel west of I-35 to the New Mexico border is strongly discouraged due to ongoing roadway icing…conditions will worsen this evening into New Year’s Day.

Cold arctic cold is entrenched over the state this morning with temperatures ranging from 4 at Amarillo to 32 at Dallas and 39 at Houston. Upstream temperature at Denver fell to a recorded low of -19 this morning shattering the previous 116 year old record of -11. Cold air will continue to funnel southward across TX today with temperatures showing very little recovery under a thickening cloud deck and continued cold air advection. Radar is showing echoes approaching Houston from the WSW, but surface observation show none of this is reaching the ground due to the dry sub cloud layer. Moist advection above the surface cold dome will continue as a strong storm system moves into the SW US resulting in SW upper level flow across TX. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain will continue all day across west and northwest TX resulting in significant surface travel concerns.

Tonight:
Coastal trough begins to sharpen along the lower TX coast in association with incoming slow moving SW US storm. Lead short wave ejects out of this system late tonight with increasing lift over the surface cold air. Expect an increase in light rain and drizzle after midnight across SE TX in association with isentropic processes and gradual saturation of the dry surface layer. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing and do not expect any freezing drizzle/rain over any portion of SE TX tonight. There is some debate on how quickly the surface layer moistens allowing drizzle to reach the ground…given the radar trends this morning will lean toward a slightly faster onset of drizzle and light rain overnight…but mainly think this will be after midnight.

For areas west of I-35 onset of precipitation will fall into a cold sub-freezing layer resulting in freezing rain/drizzle. Overnight model guidance has come in with higher QPF over portions of N TX resulting in an upgrade of the winter weather products to winter storm warnings for ice accumulation. Travel to these areas is strongly discouraged after dark tonight until about noon on Thursday. Icing of roadways will make travel extremely dangerous.

Thursday:
Lift increases over the region with scattered showers moving northward off the western Gulf of Mexico. Surface cold dome will remain anchored in place with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30’s to near 40 for most of the day. NE surface winds will begin to increase as coastal low develops east of Brownsville in association with downstream height falls spreading over TX from the storm system to our west. Rain, clouds, and increasing winds along with cold temperatures will result in a raw first day of 2015.

Friday-Saturday:
Main upper level storm moves across the area with widespread rainfall and some thunderstorms likely. Coastal low will move from near KBRO toward KLCH over this period allowing the warm sector to back toward the coast on Friday. Do not expect the warm front to penetrate inland with the exception being possibly from Galveston Bay to Beaumont late Friday. This will keep much of the area in the cold sector with temperatures held in the 40’s with widespread rainfall. With the warm front being held near the coast or offshore, will not be concerned with any severe threat for coastal or inland sections…again will need to watch the narrow corridor from Galveston Bay to Beaumont where the warm front might push inland.

Main impacts will be widespread and prolonged light to moderate rainfall. Rainfall amounts Thurs-Sat will average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 3 inches. Not expecting any flooding due to the slow nature of the rainfall but overall run-off into mainstem rivers is likely due to the widespread prolonged nature of the event.

Latest guidance wants to slow the ejection of the upper system down some and this may result in rain chances lingering into late Saturday evening.

Marine:
Coastal waters will feel strong impacts from this system with warm front cutting across this area. Additionally, NE to ENE winds ahead of the lower TX coast surface low will promote tidal increase along the upper TX and SW LA coast. Expect tides to run .5-1.0 ft above normal by early Friday and could reach 1.5 ft by late Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the nearshore and offshore waters Friday and Friday night as strong dynamics overspread the unstable offshore warm sector.

Aviation:
Poor flying conditions expected at all SE TX terminals for the next 72 hours as low clouds, fog, light rain, and reduced visibilities are all likely. All liquid at all SE TX terminals, but upstream airports at DFW, Waco, Austin, Lubbock, Midland, Amarillo, and Oklahoma City will likely see varying degrees of freezing/frozen precipitation resulting in de-icing protocol and delays. Should see I-35 terminals improve to all liquid by noon on Thursday, but not expecting much improvement at the other locations. Expect both departure and arrival delays locally and across the southern plains.

[Heat Miser]

Looks like many parts of Texas, minus southeast Texas, will have interesting and ugly weather.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
821 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
080>082-258-311800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...
RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...
MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...
FORT DAVIS...FORT STOCKTON...MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...
SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
821 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014 /721 AM MST WED DEC 31 2014/

...WINTER'S ICY GRIP...

A MIX OF LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
18 HOURS...MAINLY FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS ACROSS THE BASIN...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND THE TRANS
PECOS. AS OF 730 AM CST/630 AM MST THE MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
HAS LESSENED SOME WITH MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG BEING REPORTED. THE LATEST
FORECAST DATA DOES INDICATE THAT THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS SLOWLY DECREASING. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING TODAY IN MOST AREAS AND THUS THE ICE WILL
HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO MELT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALONG WITH
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND NOT TO TRAVEL TODAY UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THE SOUTHERN BASIN. AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RENEWED AND MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS
COULD PROVE TO BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS SOUTH A LINE FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR COLORADO CITY. INTERSTATE 10 IN PECOS COUNTY COULD
BECOME VERY ICY!

HERE'S A SUMMARY OF SOME OF THE GREATEST IMPACTS...

MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS CLOSED BETWEEN 10 PM LAST NIGHT
AND 730 AM CST THIS MORNING. ONLY ONE RUNWAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OPEN.

HUNDREDS OF VEHICLE ACCIDENTS SINCE LAST NIGHT.

CLOSURE OF DAYCARES...PRE-SCHOOLS...BUSINESSES...STATE/LOCAL
GOVERNMENT OFFICES.

NM ROAD CLOSURES...62/180 FROM CARLSBAD TO TEXAS STATE LINE.
...HIGHWAY 82 FROM LOVINGTON TO TEXAS STATE LINE.
TX ROAD CLOSURES...US 67 BETWEEN I-10 WEST OF FT STOCKTON TO ALPINE.
...LOOP 250 MIDLAND.
...PARTS OF HIGHWAY 191 BETWEEN MIDLAND AND ODESSA.
...TXDOT ROADS MAP SHOW NUMEROUS ICY ROADS.
...JBS PARKWAY AND BUSINESS 20 OVERPASS.
...THERE MAY OTHER ROADS CLOSED TOO.

CALL TO ACTION...TXDOT REQUEST 100 YARDS DISTANCE SO THEY CAN WORK SAFELY.
...FREEZING FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY MAKING DRIVING AND
STOPPING EVEN MORE DIFFICULT.
...TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 19 AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO TO 15
MAY RESULT IN FROST BITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IF OUTDOORS FOR
AN EXTENDED TIME.
...PROTECT PIPES AND PETS.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
946 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

.UPDATE...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE DALLAS AND WACO...

CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS AND UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO HAVE NUDGED DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT
FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF 9 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ENERGY
WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...A
LARGER AREA OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A
MIXED BAG OF WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. THIS
TEMPERATURE TREND WARRANTED THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS WELL.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE MORNING
OF NEW YEARS DAY...

.A SHALLOW...COLD...ARCTIC AIR-MASS HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEW YEARS
DAY. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THIS NEW YEARS EVE AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF NEW YEARS
DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TODAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO BOERNE TO BURNET LINE. MOST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH...BUT A AREAS OF
SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1/4 INCH. WITH STEEP ROAD INCLINES FOUND
OVER MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY...EVEN A
FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNT OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH COULD
PRODUCE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

TXZ171-172-183>190-010015-
/O.CON.KEWX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150101T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
1015 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY (NEW YEARS DAY).

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE ON MANY ELEVATED
SURFACES AND ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE A TRACE TO ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HILL
COUNTRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$

TXZ173-191-192-202>206-010015-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0010.150101T0600Z-150101T1800Z/
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
1015 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...SPECIFICALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BRACKETVILLE...TO LAGUNA...TO HELOTES...TO WIMBERLEY...TO LAGO
VISTA...TO LIBERTY HILL. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. (NEW YEARS DAY)

* MAIN IMPACT...PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS DUE TO MINOR
SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS SPECIFICALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.

* WHILE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR...A VERY LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES...SIDEWALKS...AND LIGHTLY
TRAVELLED ROADWAYS MAY RESULT IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. THIS AREA OF CONCERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT METRO
AREAS OF SAN ANTONIO OR AUSTIN BUT COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
TRAVELLERS COMING FROM THOSE METRO AREAS AND TRAVELLING TOWARDS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN RURAL LOCATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[srainhoutx]

Light sleet reported in Sonora coating the ground and roadways.

[jeff]

A quick look at observations across Central and E Texas into Western Louisiana show near or just below freezing temperatures at Georgetown near Austin. Temperatures in Lufkin are near 34-36 and in Jasper into the Piney Woods E Texas and Western Louisiana near Dequincy temperatures are near the 34-36F range. Dewpoints here in NW Harris County have dropped to 32 and the air temperature is 39F.

Dewpoints are going to have to be lower than that for any wet bulb effect. sub cloud layer is very dry and the QPF does not start until after sunrise tomorrow. Still think Austin and San Antonio will be ok...they may hit 32, but it is very marginal and EWX states that the only reason they included the I-35 counties was mainly for the western portions of those counties where some cold air drainage is possible. DFW area may be a different story however.