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I guess its time to start watching the gulf more seriously this upcoming week.12Z GFS now shows TC genesis with the surface low or MCV that tracks off the Louisiana coast.Develops a Tropical Depression or Tropical storm off the upper Texas coast makes landfall around Freeport Wednesday morning....Now agreeing with the ICON which has the TC making landfall further east in Louisiana near the sabine while the GFS is further west.

Beautiful qpf map.

Don the latest 12z CMC also develops a weak tropical storm, further south but kind of just meanders near the coast

Here we go... The 12Z CMC is now onboard also with TC genesis Shows a tropical depression making landfall around Matagorda .So we now have the GFS,ICON,and CMC all showing tropical development,lets see what the EURO shows.

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:50 amBeautiful qpf map.

Yes, yes it is!

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:15 pm Here we go... The 12Z CMC is now onboard also with TC genesis Shows a tropical depression making landfall around Matagorda .So we now have the GFS,ICON,and CMC all showing tropical development,lets see what the EURO shows.

Depending on how long this is over water, I would not be surprised if we get a weak TS out of this.

GEFS is showing increased support for something to form near us too.

Has Dr. Levi Cowans attention...

12Z EURO isn't onboard yet for TC development.The 12Z UKMET is onboard though with a depression going towards south Texas.The EURO is the outlier for now.While saying that i will like to see more model runs today and over the weekend before fully buying of course.Now we wait for the 18Z ICON and GFS.

Don typically the Euro model is usually the last to jump on board given its conservative history if im correct, but if this catched Levi Cowans attention then it definitely is something to watch, Levi’s tropical update posts and videos are so good

The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:21 pm The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.

One thing to watch is if we do get TC genesis in the gulf next week that could form a weakness in the ridge and maybe allow 94L/ future Bonnie to move into the gulf.But a long way out,so not concerned at this point.Its more likely to move into central America.

Just my yearly “Summer Sucks” post. Absolutely worthless time of the year weather wise.

See y’all again for a Hurricane or when Fall starts.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241722
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period with scattered clouds around 4000-6000ft developing during
the the afternoon today. Winds will shift from the southwest to
the south as the seabreeze pushes inland this afternoon,
increasing to around 10 knots before becoming light and variable
overnight. We continue to anticipate a low chance of isolated
showers developing along the sea breeze, but confidence is too low
to include any precip wording in TAFs at this time.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will remain overhead today and tomorrow, so the
overall weather pattern stays relatively the same. Temperatures
through Saturday will still reach the triple digits (100-102 degF)
for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 90s (94-98 degF) for
areas south of I-10. Isolated areas could reach 103 degF,
especially across the Brazos Valley, but forecast temperatures are
not widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory at this time.
However, a short-fused advisory cannot be ruled out should more
areas start reaching that 103 degF threshold for temperature.
Expect the sea breeze to push inland from the coast each afternoon
and reach as far north as northern Harris and central Liberty
County. This sea breeze should kick up some isolated showers and
storms in the afternoon, but activity will subside shortly after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, temperatures
will gradually cool off overnight with lows reaching the mid to
upper 70s for inland locations and low 80s near the coast.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday Night]...

The long-term period starts off with the upper-level ridge
centered over the Lower MS Valley by Sunday. Therefore, the heat
will continue with light southerly winds and plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will soar into the triple digits, with the hottest
values over the Brazos Valley area. With strong subsidence aloft,
little if any precipitation is expected.

Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal during the
workweek. Highs will mainly range from the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows from the mid 70s to low 80s.

05


.MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the northwestern Gulf will continue to
bring light onshore flow and low seas through early next week.
Winds may become moderate at night with gusts up to 20 knots. A
weak frontal boundary is progged to move over the coastal waters
Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 75 102 73 101 77 / 10 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 77 100 76 100 79 / 10 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 94 83 95 82 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones:
Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Washington.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...05

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:26 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:21 pm The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.

One thing to watch is if we do get TC genesis in the gulf next week that could form a weakness in the ridge and maybe allow 94L/ future Bonnie to move into the gulf.But a long way out, so not concerned at this point.Its more likely to move into central America.

Thought you would enjoy the 500 mb anomaly prog. The weak tropical system becomes a donut hole on CMC and GFS.

18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:35 pm 18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Gimme all of this right here.

And then the GFS tries to develop something else in the Gulf a few days after that. It heads towards us too. Deep down, I feel like this is a Lucy setup.

94L makes a run at us too in this 18z run! Happy hr hard at work!

Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.