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Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:20 am
by Scott747
Blended motion still shows NNW though hard to deny a more northward looking motion on radar.
Might be beginning to round the ridge earlier than expected and could ride up the 77 somewhat if it's turning that soon but it would take a sizable shift to the NE to get back over the water for any duration.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:22 am
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:Blended motion still shows NNW though hard to deny a more northward looking motion on radar.
Might be beginning to round the ridge earlier than expected and could ride up the 77 somewhat if it's turning that soon but it would take a sizable shift to the NE to get back over the water for any duration.
Yea it looks to be going straight north at this point. I will be happy if it continues this movement to give us more rain.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:28 am
by Scott747
Andrew wrote:Scott747 wrote:Blended motion still shows NNW though hard to deny a more northward looking motion on radar.
Might be beginning to round the ridge earlier than expected and could ride up the 77 somewhat if it's turning that soon but it would take a sizable shift to the NE to get back over the water for any duration.
Yea it looks to be going straight north at this point. I will be happy if it continues this movement to give us more rain.
Careful with what you wish for.
Still has a nice circulation and any deviation to the N this soon could set up our immediate area with some nice training bands and excessive rain in some spots.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:32 am
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:Andrew wrote:Scott747 wrote:Blended motion still shows NNW though hard to deny a more northward looking motion on radar.
Might be beginning to round the ridge earlier than expected and could ride up the 77 somewhat if it's turning that soon but it would take a sizable shift to the NE to get back over the water for any duration.
Yea it looks to be going straight north at this point. I will be happy if it continues this movement to give us more rain.
Careful with what you wish for.
Still has a nice circulation and any deviation to the N this soon could set up our immediate area with some nice training bands and excessive rain in some spots.
Yea haha how soon one can forget the impacts of a tropical storm from a great distance. Anyways as of now it should be interesting to see if this track continues.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:38 am
by Scott747
Need
More
GRLevel
Imagery
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:42 am
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:Need
More
GRLevel
Imagery
Latest:
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:51 am
by Scott747
Does look like it's going up the 77, perhaps just to the W of it.
Don't see it getting back over water but sure could up our chances for higher rainfall totals if it continues on this track.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:53 am
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:Does look like it's going up the 77, perhaps just to the W of it.
Don't see it getting back over water but sure could up our chances for higher rainfall totals if it continues on this track.
Indeed. The next update from the NHC should be very telling. Especially if this trend continues. It already looks like there is some building storms to the southeast of Galveston so tomm should be plenty wet.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:00 am
by Scott747
This was from a earlier HPC disco at 930. Plenty of moisture to work with -
...SRN TX...
T.S. HERMINE WL CONT TO LIFT NNW THIS PD INTO FAR SRN TX WITH A
VRY IMPRVS PLUME OF UNSEASONABLY DEEP MSTR LIFTG NWD. PWS ARE
APRCHG THREE STDS ABV NRML...PWS AOA 2.50 INCHES. LATEST GUID
CONTS TO SHOW THE REGION OF HVIER PCPN ALNG/E OF THE TRACK OF
HERMINE...WITH SOME GUID SHOWG THE HVIER PCPN TOO FAR E OF THE
SYS. MDLS ARE SHOWG STG SUPPORT FOR A RIBBON OF STG LOLVL MSTR
CVRG/SHEAR AXIS DVLPG FM NR BRO NWD INTO SRN TX LATE TNGT INTO
TUE. THIS IS ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MSTR PLUME. ALSO...THE STG
LOLVL FLOW IS SUPPORTING 8H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES THAT INCRS TO FIVE
STDS ABV NRML. THE STG SRLY FLOW WL ALSO INCRS UPSLOPE INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY...ESPCLY LATE TNGT INTO TUE AND BEYOND. RNFL RATES
OVR THE BRO/CRP AREAS WL INCRS THIS EVE WITH LCL TWO INCH PER HR
RATES...THESE RATES WL SLOLY SPRD NWD INTO TUE. XPCT A RIBBON OF
4-8 INCH RNFL FM ARND BRO NWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...LCL MAXES IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES ARE QUITE PSBL...ESPCLY IF THE FCST RIBBON OF
TRAING CNVTN DVLPS ACRS THE REGION.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:11 am
by Andrew
It looks like tomm around mid day should be the most amount of moisture here in SE Texas.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:17 am
by Andrew
Just for you Scott
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:25 am
by Scott747
Thanks!
I'm just marveling with how good it still looks. If I didn't know any better I would say it's strengthening.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:37 am
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:Thanks!
I'm just marveling with how good it still looks. If I didn't know any better I would say it's strengthening.
Indeed the center has actually closed off again! I think due to its proximity to the gulf Hermine is able get a good flow of moisture. I wonder how long it will last.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:41 am
by Andrew
Some huge rain totals:
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:41 am
by Scott747
Andrew wrote:Scott747 wrote:Thanks!
I'm just marveling with how good it still looks. If I didn't know any better I would say it's strengthening.
Indeed the center has actually closed off again! I think due to its proximity to the gulf Hermine is able get a good flow of moisture. I wonder how long it will last.
No telling but at this point I don't think it has lost any strength. Still hammering all the areas to the N as it travels up the 77.
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0221 AM TROPICAL STORM LA FERIA 26.16N 97.82W
09/07/2010 CAMERON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
POLICE REPORT LA FERIA IS COMPLETELY WITHOUT POWER
0219 AM TROPICAL STORM SAN PERLITA 26.50N 97.64W
09/07/2010 WILLACY TX EMERGENCY MNGR
EM REPORTS THAT THE ENTIRE CITIES OF BOTH SAN PERLITA AND
RAYMONDVILLE ARE WITHOUT POWER.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 3:08 am
by Andrew
wow!
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 3:14 am
by Scott747
I can't remember if there was a option to put a time stamp on those images...
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 3:19 am
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:I can't remember if there was a option to put a time stamp on those images...
Yea there is. I will try to add that to my pics tomm but as of now I think I am going to go to bed. Tomm is going to be crap....
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:55 am
by biggerbyte
It looks to be heading nnw again right now. We'll see if that changes.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:03 am
by srainhoutx
Still heading N this morning. Thanks guys for staying up and tracking this mess....
000
WTNT35 KNHC 071154
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...SPREADING VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 98.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF MATHIS TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES