January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 0259Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15/13 0245Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...SW AND W CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPPER LOW...DEFORMATION...SHORT WAVE FORCING AND NARROW MOISTURE
ADVECTION...JUST ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNWO FOR THE AREA...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW HAS SUNK SOUTH TO THE AZ-NM-
MEXICO BORDER. JET MAX OF 100KT+ NOW COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH IN W CENTRAL MEXICO. SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS COME AROUND THE FRONT
PART OF THE TROUGH TO HELP IGNITE/COOL CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD
OF NEW MEXICO. ON TOP OF ALL THAT DEFORMATION GETTING BETTER ACROSS
C TO S NM FOR DYNAMIC MOISTURE INCREASE THAT WILL BE HELPED FURTHER
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SW TEXAS
AND S NM ON NARROW BUT DECENT 850MB LOW LEVLE WIND FLOW. WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW SHIFTING EAST, THAT AND JET COMING AROUND LOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT UPPER LOW MORE EAST SHORTLY AND ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OF -47C IN AND AROUND EL PASO AREA CONSIDERABLY COLDER
THAN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS...SO ANY CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -30C WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN MORE
ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHIC EAST FACING MOUNTAINS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-1200Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...NARROW BUT POTENT AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OF MODERATE MOISTURE (THOUGH NOT AS HIGH A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS BACK
JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS) AIMED TOWARD SW TEXAS JUST AT THE TIME UPPER LOW
WILL BE TURNING SE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT AND EAST LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
OR MONDAY MORNING FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OF SNOW HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LOWER SPOTS FROM WEST TO EAST. BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOW FROM NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTY TO NEAR MIDLAND
INTO S NM AND SW TX...AND THAT IS WHERE HIGHEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH
MOUNTAIN/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SE NM AND SW TEXAS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND POSSIBLY COMPARIBLE TO HIGHEST SPOTS ACROSS
S CENTRAL NM AND EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY IN EXT SW TEXAS FOR LATER
TONIGHT.

[srainhoutx]

Latest analysis suggest the U/L may travel a bit further S than previously thought. The Euro has trended a bit S near Central/SE TX along and just N of the I-10 corridor. Rains/elevated storms with small hail and a sleet pellet or two cannot be ruled out as the U/L passes Tuesday afternoon/night N and W of the U/L track...

[srainhoutx]

Updating the later week situation, the 06Z NAM has come in a bit more inland and faster with the next U/L near the Baja Region. The 00Z ensembles are suggesting a lot of spread and the latest HPC early morning medium range discussion suggests a very low confidence forecast due to spread with this second feature...

06Z NAM...

01092012 06Z NAM nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

00Z GFS Ensembles 500mb...

01092012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA108.gif

00Z GFS Ensembles 850mb...

01092012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zGFSEnsembles850mbTAnomalyNA108.gif

[Belmer]

Let me just say, it takes a lot of rain for my streets to flood. They rarely ever flood, and with that strong cell that sat over here (Pasadena) everything became flooded. Water was up to sidewalks and water was coming in my backyard so quickly, I had to get a broom and sweep te water away before it came into my back doors. Haven't don't that since Allison.

Someone mentioned earlier that cell was causing rainfall rates up to 5.58 inches of rain PER hour. Well, I certainly believe that.
Drove around just a minute ago as we got a 15 minute break, and ditches are about to all come out of there banks. Getting very worried. Starting to rain pretty badly again over here. I definitely won't be sleeping tonight.

What makes me more worried, this is only the beginning, we still have the rest of today and tonight to go.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-092000-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
329 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND
BRINGS COOLER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...1/4 INCH OR MORE GENERALLY EAST OF A LOMA
ALTA TO KINGSVILLE LINE...1/2 INCH OR MORE GENERALLY EAST OF A
BEEVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS LINE...AND 1 INCH OR MORE EAST OF A
MISSION VALLEY TO SEADRIFT LINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

ALSO...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND/OR MARBLE SIZED HAIL...MAINLY EAST OF
A KINGSVILLE TO BEEVILLE LINE. NEAR THE COAST...A BRIEF WATERSPOUT
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT...AS EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF SPIN-
UP. THIS CONCERN WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 6 AM AND 2 PM TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING THIS
UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Canadian may be sniffing out some changes regarding later in the week. It does have the second U/L inland near the Baja and wintry weather behind the strong Canadian front diving S into N Texas as well a possible coastal wave developing...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 090729Z - 091000Z

MRGL SVR THREAT EXISTS OVER DISCUSSION AREA...INITIALLY FROM SMALL
SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW. ALTHOUGH
LOW-PROBABILITY IN NATURE...PER 01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANALYZED 6Z SFC CHART SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
PROBABLE LOW OVER DATA VOID OF ERN COAHUILA...ENEWD OVER SRN
MAVERICK COUNTY...ACROSS SRN FRINGES SAT METRO AREA...TO NEAR
UTS...LFK AND NWRN LA. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH MINIMAL CINH FOR SFC DEW
POINTS MID 60S F...EXTENDING FROM THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SWD OVER
MIDDLE-UPPER COAST. CINH INCREASES SWWD FROM MIDDLE COAST TOWARD
RIO GRANDE BECAUSE OF STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CINH ALSO
INCREASES IN LOWER-THETAE ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY OVER WRN LA AND
E-CENTRAL TX...AND OF COURSE NW OF FRONT. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME SWD
TRANSLATION OVER RIO GRANDE WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
SLOWLY ENEWD FROM MEX. NET RESULT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE
AIR MASS OVER MID-UPPER COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WEAK WAA OFFSETS WEAK
DIABATIC SFC COOLING...MLCAPE REMAINS IN 500-1200 J/KG RANGE.
INVERSION LAYER NEAR 700 MB APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING BASED ON RECENT
INCREASE IN LTG PRODUCTION FROM CELLS IN THIS AREA.
KINEMATICALLY...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM-SCALE ROTATION
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT AND 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200
J/KG...BASED ON SFC-MODIFIED LDB PROFILER DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL WILL BEGIN FROM W-E
LATER...FROM ABOUT 09Z ONWARD...AS PLUME OF COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT
SPREADS OVER AREA IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LOW NOW APPARENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA.

[srainhoutx]

Heavy training storms are developing from just W of Victoria to La Grange to College Station. Cells are move NE while the entire complex shifts slowly E...

[ticka1]

Severe thunderstorm over us right now - it has been thundering/lightning and raining for the last 30-45 mins. According to radar it is not moving very fast. I'm between Baytown and Mont Belvieu - south of I-10.

[srainhoutx]

To our W in this rapidly developing situation...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ173-192-091100-
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
408 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CST...

AT 400 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUTTO...OR 6 MILES WEST OF TAYLOR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
GRANGER...
THRALL...
GRANGER DAM...
BARTLETT...
WATERLOO...
WALBURG...
HOXIE...
SANDOVAL...
HARE...
LANEPORT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
406 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ193-208-209-223-091045-
BASTROP-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-GONZALES-
406 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BASTROP...SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN GONZALES AND SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 AM CST...

AT 400 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF GONZALES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
WAELDER...
CISTERN...
THOMPSONVILLE...
DELHI...
JEDDO...
COLONY...
STRING PRAIRIE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Radar...

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z GFS has trended a bit further S with the track of the current U/L and suggests a Central/northern areas of SE TX track. The second U/L is now inland near the Baja on Thursday with cold air lurking to the N across N TX as heavy rains and a coastal low develops near Brownsville on Saturday. Further to the N near or just S of the Red River, wintry mischief may be possible as well as W TX via the 06Z GFS for Saturday ino Sunday...trends my friends...

[C2G]

We got slammed in Friendswood last night for a good 45 mins to and hour. Hour after that we got some more heavy rain, minus lightning.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the E...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
419 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SINGER...MERRYVILLE...FIELDS...

* UNTIL 500 AM CST

* AT 419 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIELDS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BANCROFT...BIVENS AND JUNCTION

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Waller and Grimes Counties heads up as rapidly strengthening cells develop and move NNE with heavy rainfall rates and some lightening.

[srainhoutx]

Waller County cell now showing some weak rotation.

[srainhoutx]

Gonzales County, S of La Grange has a cell showing rotation now as well heading NE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
440 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ163-176-177-198-091145-
GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-WALKER-
440 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...STRONG STORM MOVING THROUGH MADISON COUNTY...

AT 436 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NORTH ZULCH...
AUSTONIO...MIDWAY AND MADISONVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Morning Upate suggests some near 5 inch amounts are possible with a severe weather threat. They are now calling for a light freeze Thursday and Friday nights...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY PUSHING EWD
TODAY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY AS WILL
SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INT0
EXTREME NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AND WE`VE BEEN SEEING A HANDFULL OF
STORMS WITH WEAK ROTATION OVERNIGHT. THINK THIS WILL PROBABLY BE
THE CASE INTO EARLY AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/HELICITY IN
PLACE. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW...CANNOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE CHANCES
OF ISOLATED TORNDOES IN ANY OF THESE STRONGER CELLS. STILL MORE
CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. SOME HCOEM
GAGES IN SRN HARRIS COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED 2-3.5" OF RAIN WITH JUST
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THERE A FEW HOURS AGO.
LOCALIZED QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NUDGED UP TO 5". SFC LOW/WAVE IS
FCST TO DEVELOP IN S TX AND MOVE UP INTO SE TX LATER THIS AFTN AND
NE OF THE REGION TONIGHT - LIKELY ENHANCING TRAINING PRECIP ALONG
THE WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. (WORTH NOTING HOWEVER IS
THE 3KM WRF SHOWING SWD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT THRU THE DAY - AND
WITH NOT BEING AS CONCERNED W/ SFC LOW - ENDING PRECIP LATE IN THE
AFTN). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER MAJORITY WHICH ENDS PRECIP
FROM SW TO NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...AND DRY MILD WX
ON WED AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY FROM TX. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING A CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE
AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
MOISTURE STARVED. MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE THURS AND FRI NIGHTS.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reporting trees down with this complex...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
458 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 AM CST

* AT 454 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE... MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. THIS STORM DOWN TREES IN NORTHWEST BRAZOS COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SEBASTOPOL...TRINITY...MIDWAY AND LOVELADY.