July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[jasons2k]

Wow, the line is trying to fill-in again to my south towards the big airport and along I-45. I hope it keeps going!

[jasons2k]

These have been my rain totals since June 2nd - almost all were near-misses:
6/7: 0.07"
6/12: 0.04"
6/13: 0.01"
6/20: Trace
7/ 4: 0.07"
7/8: .42”
7/9: 0.04"
7/10: 0.01"
7/12: .05"
7/14: .04"

A lot more activity the last few days, but not much rain yet.

[jasons2k]

Finally, a nice soaker here. Yeah!! (was only .24", but at least something)

[Karen]

Can you guys on the north side push some of that rain to south side please Thank you

[unome]

last 24 hrs, from http://nmq.ou.edu/




more on the way
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... e_loop.php

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Watch for a large portion of Central Texas. Yes its been quite awhile since a FFW was hoisted for Central Texas. Some area could receive up to 5" of very well needed rains. Radar shows a large area of rain ongoing across Central Texas this morning. SE TX has good rain chances through Tuesday as GOM moisture moves inland on the backside of the upper level low (ULL).

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level low currently over central OK responsible for the widespread much needed rainfall yesterday and overnight.

Low is currently moving toward the W toward NW TX with a swath of deep tropical moisture streaming inland on the SE flank of the system. Overnight large area of rainfall on the southern flank of the low is starting to weaken while numerous showers are starting to develop over the coastal waters and inland as moisture streams northward. Should see pretty decent rainfall coverage today with storms moving quickly from SSE to NNW across the area. Deep tropical moisture with PWS of 2.0 inches will support a heavy rainfall threat. While grounds are dry any training of rainfall could result in some localized flooding problems. Even though there was some wind damage yesterday, do not expect as much wind with the storms today as the column is closer to saturation.

Upper low digs into SW TX and N MX Tuesday/Wednesday with high pressure centered to our NE allowing a continued moist onshore flow. Expect good coverage of rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday. Likely see coastal develop in the 400-800am period followed by inland progression of storms beyond 800am. High pressure may attempt to build into the area on Thursday, but it is to be seen if an how much influence the high will have. Will likely at least continue to see isolate the scattered development on the seabreeze each day into the weekend.

While not expected to be a drought breaker this is the best rain chances over multi days that we have seen in a long time.

[spadilly]

That radar loop is beautiful

[PaulEInHouston]

ULL.jpg (126.35 KiB) Viewed 4534 times

Morning all...happy to see the influx of Gulf moisture on it's way! Central Texas has been getting much needed rain as well with some areas already 4+ inches. Great sat pic of the ULL and how it's affecting so much of the state. Looks like a lopsided tropical system...

[txflagwaver]

Finally getting actual rain here...nothing yesterday or Friday...and of course its raining in West Garden Valley, near Tyler, where my son is a camp....Low is impressive on the radar loop

[Kludge]

NO rain since June 6, then 3.2 inches since 6PM yesterday.

Yesssss.

[djmike]

Does'nt look like much coming in off the gulf any more. That would be our luck. So far, 0.00" for me on this potentially next wet few days.

[tireman4]

Give it time Djmike. Give it time. I think you will be rewarded this week.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/15/13 1448Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13/15 1415Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...COLORADO...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...NARROWING BUT MORE FOCUSED MOIST AXIS COLORADO SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NEW MEXICO FOR LOCAL HVY RAINS/HEIGHTENED FF THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE ITEMS...SINCE 18Z ON
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR HAS MOVED FROM
THE INDIANA-KY BORDER TO CENTRAL OK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM
EASTERN NM-TX PANHANDLE-WESTERN KS TO NW AZ-UT. MOISTURE MOVEMENT
AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM N MINNESOTA WEST AND SW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...WESTERN SD/EASTERN WYOMING AND SSW THROUGH INTERIOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND SE NEW MEXICO/W CENTRAL AND SW TEXAS.
SIGNIFICANT DRY POCKET WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA, KANSAS
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WITH CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT AND SQUEEZING/NARROWING THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
NEW MEXICO AND ESPECIALLY COLORADO. THOUGH DRY AIR HAS WORKING ITS
WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND MOISTURE BAND WAS NARROWING INTERIOR
EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE MOUNTAINS...THAT IS ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO
MORE FOCUS ON A CONCENTRATED AREA THAT CAN STILL ALLOW FOR HVY RAINS
TO DEVELOP MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO AS THE DAY GOES ON,
ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING...AND BURN AREAS HERE
WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. ALSO NOTICED THAT PWAT MOISTURE OVER THESE
AREAS IN COLORADO WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANKED 12TH HIGHEST FOR
JULY SINCE THE 1950'S...SO STILL HIGH MOISTURE BUT BEING ERODED SOME BY
DRY AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN FROM THE PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH...A LARGER
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN/FF POTENTIAL AS HIGH MOISTURE AREA WAS GREATER AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DYNAMICS A BIT MORE STRONGER AND DRY AIR MAKING
SMALLER INROADS (NORTHEAST) INTO THE STATE. AND BURN AREAS HERE WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE AS THE DAY GOES ON. AND WEST CENTRAL TO
SW TEXAS...ITS MODERATELY HIGH MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
HEIGHTEN FF THREAT THERE FOR LATER TODAY...OVERRUNNING FOR WEST CENTRAL
TX AND INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FOR SW TEXAS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1445-1899Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...OFF IMMEDIATE CONCERN WAS NARROW FOCUSED
CONVECTIVE LIKE CELLS IN COLORADO TELLER TO FREMONT TO CUSTER COUNTY SOUTH
TO LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. NOTHING STANDING OUT IN NEW MEXICO YET...BUT WAS
CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE BOUNDED BY COLFAX-TAOS
IN THE NORTH TO EDDY-OTERO-TORRANCE-SOCORRO IN SOUTH FOR SOME HIGHLY
LOCALIZED MOERATE TO HVY SHOWERS.

[redneckweather]

I don't see much happening for us in Southeast Texas today as far as coverage. Hopefully this won't be the theme with the rain chances for the rest of the week.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/15/13 1556Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1530Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...HGX....
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE..UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES FOR LIFT...
LOCALLY HVY RAINS....
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER LEVLE LOW DRIFTING WEST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING SO MUCH MORE ANOMALOUS THAN MOISTURE...BUT HERE'S
AN INSTANCE WHERE MODERATE MOISTURE BEING EFFICIENTLY ACTED UPON BY
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINS IN A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
C TEXAS BOUNDED BY SUTTON COUNTY IN THE WEST...TRAVIS COUNTY IN THE
SOUTH..WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE EAST AND FALLS TO LAMPASAS TO MENARD
COUNTY IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY 1.5"-1.9" OVER
THE AREA...BUT THERE WAS AN ISOLATED 2" PWAT CENTERED OVER AUSTIN AS PER
LATEST GPS THAT HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT AND ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT
OF DEEP PERSISTENT MOISTURE FOR VERY EFFICICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
AND IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING...EVEN MORE REASON TO PRODUCE HIGH AMOUNTS
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...BUT OVER A SMALLER THAN NORMAL AREA...LIKE
THE TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON/BURNET AREA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-1900Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SAME ELEMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE PAST FEW HRS
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 3HRS...GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HVY RAIN CELLS AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MODERATELY
MOIST (PWATS UP TO 2") ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAIN/ISOLATED
URBAN TYPE FF. CONCERNED AREA BASICALLY STAYING THE SAME AND CLOSE
TO SUTTON/KIMBLE TO BURLESON TO ROBERTSON TO MENARD/MCCULLOCH COUNTY
WHERE ANY PLACE HERE CAN PICK UP AN INCH IN 20-30 MINUTES...2" IN 45-60
MINUTES AND 2-3 INCHES IN 2HRS.

[unome]

here's the link for NESDIS Precip Products: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/

and the graphic that accompanies the update below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/sp ... 151556.gif

Update from Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/15/13 1556Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1530Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...HGX....
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE..UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES FOR LIFT...
LOCALLY HVY RAINS....
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER LEVLE LOW DRIFTING WEST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING SO MUCH MORE ANOMALOUS THAN MOISTURE...BUT HERE'S
AN INSTANCE WHERE MODERATE MOISTURE BEING EFFICIENTLY ACTED UPON BY
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINS IN A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
C TEXAS BOUNDED BY SUTTON COUNTY IN THE WEST...TRAVIS COUNTY IN THE
SOUTH..WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE EAST AND FALLS TO LAMPASAS TO MENARD
COUNTY IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY 1.5"-1.9" OVER
THE AREA...BUT THERE WAS AN ISOLATED 2" PWAT CENTERED OVER AUSTIN AS PER
LATEST GPS THAT HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT AND ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT
OF DEEP PERSISTENT MOISTURE FOR VERY EFFICICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
AND IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING...EVEN MORE REASON TO PRODUCE HIGH AMOUNTS
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...BUT OVER A SMALLER THAN NORMAL AREA...LIKE
THE TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON/BURNET AREA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-1900Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SAME ELEMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE PAST FEW HRS
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 3HRS...GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HVY RAIN CELLS AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MODERATELY
MOIST (PWATS UP TO 2") ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAIN/ISOLATED
URBAN TYPE FF. CONCERNED AREA BASICALLY STAYING THE SAME AND CLOSE
TO SUTTON/KIMBLE TO BURLESON TO ROBERTSON TO MENARD/MCCULLOCH COUNTY
WHERE ANY PLACE HERE CAN PICK UP AN INCH IN 20-30 MINUTES...2" IN 45-60
MINUTES AND 2-3 INCHES IN 2HRS.

[robertscottlazar]

what a big joke. another overhyped non event joke.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Austin/San Antonio reports 6.78 inches of rain from a CoCoRaHS observer 10.6 miles NW of Burnet. Just what the Doctor ordered for those Hill Country Lakes...

[unome]

beautiful