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Cpv17 yep 12z Euro is nearly the same as the CMC, doesnt clear the state until thursday, difference is the cmc has the low clearing to our north while the euro has it moving right over SE Texas

I didn't post much recently, May 11th was a bit scary. I made a video for it.

https://youtu.be/hQ6iCv3iQbs

The rain doesn’t really look to be going anywhere for the next 24-36 hours. Just checked all of the mesoscale models and they pretty much all have 2-3 more rounds of rain coming in at various different times.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 1:50 pm Cpv17 yep 12z Euro is nearly the same as the CMC, doesnt clear the state until thursday, difference is the cmc has the low clearing to our north while the euro has it moving right over SE Texas

Yeah that’s interesting for sure. WPC may need to adjust their forecast.

Woodlands has been getting hammered off and on all day today.

Holy -SOI! 4 days in a row with -20 or lower values!

90-Day is now negative.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 2:27 pm Woodlands has been getting hammered off and on all day today.

I was just gonna post this - another round here now. I haven’t checked the gauge yet, but eyeballing it - must be approaching 2 inches.

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 1:57 pm I didn't post much recently, May 11th was a bit scary. I made a video for it.

https://youtu.be/hQ6iCv3iQbs

Crazy lightning. Thanks for sharing.

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 2:54 pm Holy -SOI! 4 days in a row with -20 or lower values!

90-Day is now negative.

I think once the Southern Oscillation Index 90 Day Value drops down to around -7.0 and below then we will officially have an El Niño. My only long term concern is a few of the long range climate models have ENSO values dropping back down into Neutral territory and possibly heading towards La Niña range by late Summer/Fall of 2024. That’s a really long ways off in terms of the meteorological & oceanic world, so I’ll worry about those forecast trends whenever we approach that bridge.

Strangely enough, we got the meet in and, get this, on time. Only a 15 minute stoppage due to lightning

If this troughy pattern hangs around through summer then we’ll need to keep an eye on the tropics.

Cpv17 end of may looks interesting, models hinting at a ridge strengthening in canada which may help to lower pressures in the GOM, wouldnt be surprised to see some activity to kick off june or maybe late may, but yeah this hurricane season will be interesting with el nino lurking

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 4:57 pm Cpv17 end of may looks interesting, models hinting at a ridge strengthening in canada which may help to lower pressures in the GOM, wouldnt be surprised to see some activity to kick off june or maybe late may, but yeah this hurricane season will be interesting with el nino lurking

Watch the GFS start spitting out phantom CAG systems soon lol

I'm enjoying this rain last year we got only 2.82 inches for the month we've received 4.93 and we are only 13 days in.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 5:01 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 4:57 pm Cpv17 end of may looks interesting, models hinting at a ridge strengthening in canada which may help to lower pressures in the GOM, wouldnt be surprised to see some activity to kick off june or maybe late may, but yeah this hurricane season will be interesting with el nino lurking

Watch the GFS start spitting out phantom CAG systems soon lol

If we stay in this pattern into the Summer with all of the MCS's and meso vortex's that keep moving offshore into the gulf. I think there's a decent chance of homebrew activity this year.

A string El Niño could produce enough shear in the GoM to keep any tropical mischief weak. Fingers crossed.

We need to keep an eye on this persistent band. This is the pattern I was warning about a few days ago. This inflow is setting-up right over us.

DoctorMu Imelda was weak, when it comes to the tropics its pick you’re poison , personally id rather get hit by a fast moving hurricane than have a slow moving weak system dropping 30-40 inches on me

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 7:44 pm We need to keep an eye on this persistent band. This is the pattern I was warning about a few days ago. This inflow is setting-up right over us.

The HRRR looks really active over our area. Some places could easily see another 1-2”.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 7:44 pm We need to keep an eye on this persistent band. This is the pattern I was warning about a few days ago. This inflow is setting-up right over us.

Yep several of the mesoscale models have waves of storms training over the same areas through the day tomorrow.Another flood watch may need to be issued.