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Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:14 pm**

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:12 pm If that system sits in the GOM for several days next week, it seems to me with those water temps, it will get stronger. The question is, just how strong could it get?

It will be moving at a fairly quick clip, thankfully.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:18 pm**

Hopefully this becomes at least an organized depression, ill take a few rain bands please

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:20 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:18 pm Hopefully this becomes at least an organized depression, a weak wave like what the GFS is showing isnt going to cut it

Unless it does go further south. Haha. Takes a while to get into a drought and it often takes a bit to get out. I think we all have to keep that in-mind as well. Pattern for rain going forward (next 30-days) is certainly better than the last 30 days. That's a start.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:22 pm**

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:12 pm If that system sits in the GOM for several days next week, it seems to me with those water temps, it will get stronger. The question is, just how strong could it get?

I don’t think it’ll get very strong even though it’ll be going through some very warm waters. Too much dry air out there but still you can never count anything out.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:23 pm**

Now this is just an early prediction on what i think the ceiling is for this system, I think a weak Cat 1 isnt impossible with this, and its floor would be obviously an open wave

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:25 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:23 pm Now this is just an early prediction on what i think the ceiling is for this system, I think a weak Cat 1 isnt impossible with this, and its floor would be obviously an open wave

I agree

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:53 pm**

Here's the end of the 18Z ICON (BTW the ICON can sometimes do a good job at sniffing out Homebrew TC genesis.)

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:17 pm**

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:11 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:02 pm Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.
Where site are you using? Hard to find a view large enough to include the Gulf, etc. on tidbits.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/index.php

Large scale atmosphere products.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:38 pm**

GFS still an open wave

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:38 pm**

Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:17 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:11 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:02 pm Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.
Where site are you using? Hard to find a view large enough to include the Gulf, etc. on tidbits.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/index.php

Large scale atmosphere products.

Thanks! Just noticed weatherbell also has expanded view options.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:42 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:38 pm GFS still an open wave

Funny that this particular run does try to slow it down and wrap it up just a bit as it approaches the coast.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:35 pm**

It will be interesting to see what the hurricane models show once this becomes an invest

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 7:44 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:35 pm It will be interesting to see what the hurricane models show once this becomes an invest

Yes. Wonder when that will happen.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 8:03 pm**

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 7:44 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:35 pm It will be interesting to see what the hurricane models show once this becomes an invest
Yes. Wonder when that will happen.

My hunch is Friday or Saturday an INVEST will be designated...

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:33 pm**

Stratton are you posting the models tonight?

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:45 pm**

sambucol i think the whole group will be , but ill try to post a few, i am pretty interested to see what the overnight models have to show

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:46 pm**

Also this might be a really dumb question but I am the only one who actually gets kind of excited to see the next model runs when it comes to a tropical system? Now obviously I dont ever wish for anyone to get hit, but i always get a sense of excitement because yoy dont know what the next model runs gonna show

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:52 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:46 pm Also this might be a really dumb question but I am the only one who actually gets kind of excited to see the next model runs when it comes to a tropical system? Now obviously I dont ever wish for anyone to get hit, but i always get a sense of excitement because yoy dont know what the next model runs gonna show

You’re definitely not the only one.

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 10:00 pm**

Posted: **Wed Aug 16, 2023 10:09 pm**

It’s the biggest rush ever!!’ Bring on a cane

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