From NESDIS...note: It does appear to be slowing as noted by NESDIS due to the frontal wave near Hooks on up to Huntsville as the line re-orients in a S to N fashion as had been suggested by guidance...
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/20/12 1227Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1215Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CENTERED OVER SE TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH MOST RECENT
IMAGERY SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM HAS CLOSED OFF IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL
ENERGY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF TROF.
VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF TROF OVER PORTIONS OF SE TX AND W LA ALONG
WITH COUPLED JET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND FOCUS LARGE
SCALE FORCING THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM.
.
IR IMAGERY AND LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST ACTIVE LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY UTS SW TO JUST NW OF MFE. HAVE NOTICED
SOME OVERALL CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH DOES
SUGGEST SOME DECREASE IN THE OVERALL RAINFALL RATES BUT STILL RAINFALL
RATES ARE LIKELY RUNNING AROUND 1.0"/HR IN THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION.
STILL SOME LOCALIZED CLOUD TOP COOLING WAS NOTICED NEAR MATAGORDA ISLAND
WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE SOME 1.0-2.0"/HR RAINFALL RATES.
.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM LOW NEAR THE ARKLATEX SSE TO PORTIONS OF S TX. THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL IMPULSE NEAR DWH THAT IS SLOWING DOWN
OVERALL MOVEMENT TO SYSTEM IN THIS AREA AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THE VERY SHORT TERM FROM THERE NE TO JUST E OF UTS.BEYOND THAT,
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY STREAMING INTO BACKSIDE OF TROF
AND VERY LITTLE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER E/SE TX
SUGGESTS THAT LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS OVERALL THINKING ALSO AGREES WELL WITH MOST RECENT SWOMCD FOR
THIS APPROXIMATE AREA ALONG WITH 12Z UA OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING WELL
DEFINED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION..
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1215-1515Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING TO OVERALL
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, BELIEVE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ON THE SHORT TERM CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF SE TX AND EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF NW LA. TRAINING CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR AND SHORT TERM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2.0-3.0"
POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF REPEATING CONVECTION.
.
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Excessive rainfall overnight across central and north TX will be producing significant rises on several rivers. Some of these basins will be going into flood over the next 24 hours. Widespread 3-5 inches fell overnight along I-35 from north of Austin to Dallas with a few locations upwards of 6-8 inches.
Given the ongoing severe weather in progress over the area will just list the river and is expected flooding category:
Navasota River: Minor flooding expected, Flood Warning in effect
San Bernard River: Rises to above flood stage likely today, Flood Warning in effect
Medina River: moderate flooding likely, Flood Warning in effect
Guadalupe River: minor flooding from Comfort downstream to Bloomington, Flood Warning in effect
San Gabriel River: minor flooding, Flood Warning in effect
Colorado River: rises to action stage possible at Bastrop and Columbus (Flood gate operations ongoing along portions of the Highland Lakes due to overnight inflows). No gate operations expected at Lake Travis or Lake Buchanan
Brazos River: significant rise expected, but should remain below bankfull and flood stage
Trinity River: rises to near/above flood stage are possible on the lower portion of the river below Lake Livingston late this week.
Will try to get out storm reports later today…still getting lots of damage reports from the west side of Houston mainly to trees.
Significant tornado affected the area around Devine, TX SW of San Antonio damaging at least 50 homes and flipping vehicles on I-35 last night around 800pm.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-211215-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL END UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA
BORDER.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL COME TO END AROUND NOON TODAY.
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E-mail from Jeff regarding the Devine Tornado yesterday near San Antonio:
Large supercell produced a large tornado last evening just southwest of San Antonio. The radar showed an impressive hook echo and strong rotation prior to the public photos of a tornado. The tornado traveled nearly right along I-35 affecting the town of Devine. NWS storm survey will be conducted to determine path length and tornado intensity. Based on the pictures below this was likely in the EF2- EF3 range (111-165mph)
Radar velocity and reflectivity showing hooking echo and strong rotation. It is the northern cell on the image:
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/20/12 1538Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1515Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST VIS AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SLOW MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY EWARD
PROGRESSION WITH THE AXIS OF MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM SHELBY COUNTY SSW TO GALVESTON BAY. NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS WERE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AXIS AND RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE LINE HAVE BEEN
RUNNING AT 1.0-2.0"/HR BUT SINCE IT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS,
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.0-2.0" OVER A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD. IN THE UPSTREAM PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SEVERAL ESE/WNW ORIENTED WAVES OF MORE ACTIVE CLOUD
TOPS LIFTING RAPIDLY NE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF THESE FEATURES EXTENDS FROM
ROUGHLY TYLER COUNTY WNW TO NEAR PSN WHILE FURTHER NE WEAKENING WAVES
WERE NOTED FROM RUSK COUNTY TO VAN ZANDT COUNTY AND ALSO FROM NEAR OSA
TO FANIN COUNTY.
.
LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAXIMUM IS CENTRED ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND VIS IMAGERY AND
GOES SOUNDER INDICATES THIS AREA WAS COLLOCATED WITH A DEVELOPING CU
FIELD WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTIVE LINE TO
DEVELOP INTO THIS AREA WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS
MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING OVER JUST W OF LCH.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1530-1830Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE SHORT TERM WITH LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR GRADUALLY
SPREADING FROM SE TX INTO PORTIONS OF W/SW LA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON WAVES OF ACTIVE CLOUD TOPS LIFTING NE IN THE POST CONVECTIVE
LINE RAIN SHIELD TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1.0-3.0" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ANY AREAS OF
TRAINING/MERGING CONVECTION WITH THE MOST FAVORED AXIS EXTENDING FROM
GALVESTON BAY/CHAMBERS COUNTY NE TO NEAR AND W OF IER.
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I measured a 17 mph easterly movement of the line in the past hour. That compares to about 20-25 mph when it was in western parts of the city 2-3 hours ago. Should really slow down once it moves to the Beaumont/Lake Charles area. May see some sunshine in Houston after 1pm.
wxman57 wrote:I measured a 17 mph easterly movement of the line in the past hour. That compares to about 20-25 mph when it was in western parts of the city 2-3 hours ago. Should really slow down once it moves to the Beaumont/Lake Charles area. May see some sunshine in Houston after 1pm.
This happens every time...when storms clear Houston, this board dies...what about us here in Beaumont? I try to follow this forum to get the latest. Now I have no idea....
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 230 PM CDT
* AT 1127 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE ESTIMATES OF 2 TO AS MUCH AS
5.5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A VILLAGE
MILLS...TO KOUNTZE TO BEVIL OAKS LINE.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KOUNTZE...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...WILDWOOD...BEVIL OAKS...CANEY HEAD
AND VILLAGE MILLS.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO...CYPRESS CREEK...BLACK CREEK...KIMBALL CREEK...TURKEY
CREEK...VILLAGE CREEK...BEECH CREEK...MILL CREEK...WALKER
BRANCH...HICKORY CREEK...PINOAK BRANCH...BLACK BRANCH...BOGGY
CREEK...LITTLE ROCK CREEK...BIG SANDY CREEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
djmike wrote:This happens every time...when storms clear Houston, this board dies...what about us here in Beaumont? I try to follow this forum to get the latest. Now I have no idea....
Not to sound harsh, but what would you expect? This is a KHOU forum, not KFDM...just sayin'
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED AT NOON. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
djmike wrote:This happens every time...when storms clear Houston, this board dies...what about us here in Beaumont? I try to follow this forum to get the latest. Now I have no idea....
Not to sound harsh, but what would you expect? This is a KHOU forum, not KFDM...just sayin'
I knew I would get comments...BUT, this KHOU forum does all of west, central, and east texas (Houston)...why not east Texas (Beaumont/Pt Arthur) area? Its not a Austin forum...It's not a San Antonio Forum...You cover those areas quite well....
djmike wrote:This happens every time...when storms clear Houston, this board dies...what about us here in Beaumont? I try to follow this forum to get the latest. Now I have no idea....
Not to sound harsh, but what would you expect? This is a KHOU forum, not KFDM...just sayin'
I knew I would get comments...BUT, this KHOU forum does all of west, central, and east texas (Houston)...why not east Texas (Beaumont/Pt Arthur) area? Its not a Austin forum...It's not a San Antonio Forum...You cover those areas quite well....
I agree, mets on here do such a great job covering the storms that come from west to east, they shouldn't stop till the last bit is out of east TX into LA. However, ones that do follow the storms are usually up all night covering storms that do come from west to east, that it's nap time after the storms pass Houston.
Pretty good storm coming from the South right now. Hitting south Beaumont right now. This looks stronger than the first original line of storms that came through about 30-45 minutes ago. Could be some pretty gusty winds with this one. Might even see possible funnels. Watch out!
wxman57 wrote:I measured a 17 mph easterly movement of the line in the past hour. That compares to about 20-25 mph when it was in western parts of the city 2-3 hours ago. Should really slow down once it moves to the Beaumont/Lake Charles area. May see some sunshine in Houston after 1pm.
YUCK... going to be miserable if that happens.
Sunshine is miserable? Clouds & rain = miserable. There will only be a few breaks in the clouds in the next few hours. Maybe we can go 7-10 days without any more significant rain. Enough time for the area to dry out a bit.
Thanks for the update guys...It seems to have really stalled over Beaumont. Closing in on 2". Another round hitting us now.
Sorry if I sounded frustrated earlier. I keep track of weather for special kids here in the area and Im the one they depend on to get them out of harms way. I knew that tornadoes were possible too and wanted to be aware as this system approached Beaumont.. I depend on this forum very much and I REALLY appreciate the hard work all you guys do. Keep up the great work!!
wxman57 wrote:I measured a 17 mph easterly movement of the line in the past hour. That compares to about 20-25 mph when it was in western parts of the city 2-3 hours ago. Should really slow down once it moves to the Beaumont/Lake Charles area. May see some sunshine in Houston after 1pm.
YUCK... going to be miserable if that happens.
Sunshine is miserable? Clouds & rain = miserable. There will only be a few breaks in the clouds in the next few hours. Maybe we can go 7-10 days without any more significant rain. Enough time for the area to dry out a bit.
Sunshine after a deluge is miserable... yes. Sunshine in general when you have dry conditions is not miserable.
