HPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast
issued 1947Z Tues
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
adding discussion:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2013
...VALID 18Z TUE JAN 08 2013 - 00Z THU JAN 10 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW TVR 30 WNW HEZ 15 ESE CWF 25 SSW KVBS 25 WNW KEMK
40 SSE KBBF KMIU 30 SE NQI NQI 30 NNW RBO SSF 15 NNE BMQ
15 NW F18 25 NE TKI 10 S PRX 25 SSW TXK 25 SW ELD 25 NNW TVR.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE HYI PWG 15 SE JWY 15 SSW 3T1 20 NNE GGG 25 NW IER
10 SE IER 15 W AEX 10 NNE CWF 25 SW KVBS 40 ENE KGVX 15 SSE KGVX
35 SSW KGVX 25 E KRP 30 WSW VCT 45 W VCT 15 NE HYI.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE JAS 25 ENE JAS 30 SW DRI 15 ESE BPT
20 ESE GLS 15 NW KGVX 15 NNE KBQX 20 NW LBX 15 WNW SGR 20 SE 11R
10 ENE CXO 10 ENE LFK 35 NNE JAS.
...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THANKS TO VERY SLOW
MOVING UPR LOW EJECTING EWD FROM NRN MEX TOWARD SRN TX THIS PD.
DESPITE ALMOST UNIFORM AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL DVLPG
ACRS THIS REGION..CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODEL RUNS
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. SEE QPFPFD FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. MANUAL QPF GENLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF UKMET/00Z EC HEIGHT
FIELDS WITH SOMEWHAT HIER EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z WRF ARW FOR HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS AHEAD OF ASSOCD SFC LOW THAT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NWD FROM SRN TX ON WED. EARLY IN THE FCST..STG CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE UPR TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH WARM
SECTOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRAINING NEWD IN PREVIALING 7H/5H FLOW
INTO THE REGION THRU TUES EVENING. CONTINUED SLOW BACKING OF
MID/UPR FLOW WILL ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD N OF THE
WARM FRONT ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PD AND AS
MAIN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH EWD ACRS TX..EXPECT STG CONVECTION
TO DVLP IN N/S BAND ALONG INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER
CNTL TX..THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD TOWARD DEEPER MSTR AXIS
FURTHER E DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BY WED...DEEP
LAYERED SLY FLOW WITH N/S AXIS OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH PWS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STG N/S BAND OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL PUSH EWD ACRS ERN TX TOWARD
LA LATE IN THE DAY. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY INVOF THIS LINE AND
NWD MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY..MSTR AND FRONTAL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE.
LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE PSBL ACRS
PARTS OF ERN TX WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES.
SULLIVAN