October 2023

[sambucol]

I sure do hope those temps verify!

[Stratton20]

the GFS shows overunning precipitation with high temps in the mid 40’s

[Ptarmigan]

Rain is certainly welcome.

[DoctorMu]

We'll get some rain with the Halloween FROPA. Potential frost or freeze after that front.

[Cpv17]

As usual at this range with these stronger types of fronts, the forecast looks to be 10-15° too warm.

[Pas_Bon]

the GFS shows overunning precipitation with high temps in the mid 40’s

HIGHS in the mid 40's?

[Cpv17]

the GFS shows overunning precipitation with high temps in the mid 40’s

HIGHS in the mid 40's?

It’s definitely a possibility. The 6z GFS even has a little wintry weather for west central Texas next week.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

With surface high pressure settled over the Eastern Seaboard and a
building upper-level ridge over the north-central Gulf, we can
expect continued warm, humid southerly flow into our region. With
that ridge to the east getting stronger, some drier air will be
moving its way into the region today (PWATs this afternoon may drop
to around 1 to 1.2" east of I-45) limiting the isolated light
rainshowers we got yesterday. There is a very slight chance of some
showers west of the Brazos this afternoon where PWATs may remain
closer to 1.5", but if they form they would likely just produce a
trace of precipitation. Temperatures this afternoon will again climb
into mid to upper 80s across the area.

The LLJ that gave us some breezy winds last night will be weakening
through the day today, but not completely dissipated through
tonight. Areas in the northern Brazos Valley area (Washington,
Burleson, Brazos, and Madison counties) will likely see some
isolated gusts to 20 mph tonight with the rest of the region staying
below 15mph. These elevated wind gusts should keep the fog at bay
again tonight, but may see some patchy ground fog in low lying areas
that are protected from the winds. Overnight lows tonight and
Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 70s for most of the area
as the warm, southerly flow persists.

On Wednesday, the upper level ridge begins to slide eastward
allowing for PWATs to rise again across SE Texas to 1.5 to 1.9". The
increase in moisture and a weak upper level shortwave moving in from
the West Gulf will help trigger isolated to scattered precipitation
beginning on Wednesday. The chance of showers will continue into
overnight Wednesday as WAA increases as the area gets sandwiched
between the high pressure to the east and a developing low pressure
system in the Central Plains (but more on this in the long term
below).

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

WAA and moisture advection will dominate our atmosphere on
Thursday, bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the region. Thursday`s PoPs range from 50% to 80%, with the
highest PoPs in our NW counties and the lowest in our SE counties.
The bulk of the large scale lift will remain north and west of
the CWA. Therefore, the primary concern for heavy rainfall and
flooding continues to be to our west and north. However, PWs are
looking downright impressive on Thursday. There is strong
deterministic and ensemble support for PWs of at least 2.00
inches, possibly over 2.50 inches. Therefore, locally heavy
rainfall is a possibility across the entire CWA on Thursday. PoPs
gradually decrease during the Friday to Sunday time frame.
Afternoon temps are expected to average in the mid-80s through the
weekend with lows generally in the low-70s (plus or minus a few
degrees depending on your location).

The are signs of a potential pattern change early next week that
could feature a strong cold front in our neck of the woods around
Halloween. There is decent agreement among the long range
guidance regarding a cooler pattern. But how much cooler will it
get? How long will the cooler conditions last? These details are a
bit murky for now. But for those of you who want to put those
flannels back on, I express cautious optimism that the pattern
will shift in your favor. Time will tell!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Sustained southeasterly winds around 10kts with gusts to 20 to
25kts will persist through this evening. The gusts may end up
lingering into the overnight hours, but regardless the moderate
southeasterly winds will continue. VFR conditions will prevail
through today with scattered clouds around 3000 to 6000ft, and
broken high level clouds around 25000ft. CLL, UTS, and CXO may
experience some MVFR conditions overnight tonight into early
Wednesday morning as higher moisture returns to the area. However,
if winds end up staying elevated with frequent gusts, the low
level cloud deck may end up staying scattered.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through
Thursday with seas in the 4 to 6 foot range. Seas farther offshore
are expected to peak in the 7 to 8 foot range late Wednesday into
early Thursday. Caution flag conditions with intermittent small
craft advisory level conditions are likely. The daily risk of
showers and thunderstorms will increase through Thursday. Seas,
winds, and rain chances will gradually decrease by Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 87 72 / 20 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 86 72 85 73 / 10 10 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 74 81 74 / 10 20 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

[Stratton20]

Wow didnt expect that!! This is very rare to see in october! Cant screenshot it, but the CPC has a slight risk for hazardous temp’s all the way down into se texas!🥶🥶🥶🥶

[brazoriatx]

Wow didnt expect that!! This is very rare to see in october! Cant screenshot it, but the CPC has a slight risk for hazardous temp’s all the way down into se texas!🥶🥶🥶🥶

For October? I'll believe it when I feel it lol

[sambucol]

Wow didnt expect that!! This is very rare to see in october! Cant screenshot it, but the CPC has a slight risk for hazardous temp’s all the way down into se texas!🥶🥶🥶🥶

If they have it at any risk this time of year for us, that means a lot. Bring on those frigid temps!!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241917
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
217 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Continued warmth with humid southeast flow is expected through
Wed night. Although winds will subside this eve with the loss of
heating, 5 to 10 kts will continue overnight, so no significant
fog is expected to develop. Overnight lows tonight and Wednesday
night will be in the low to mid 70s areawide.

On Wednesday, the upper level ridge begins to edge eastward
allowing for PWATs to increase across SE Texas to 1.5 to 2.0". This
increase in moisture coupled with a mid/upper level shortwave will likely
trigger scattered showers. The chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue overnight on Wednesday, with coverage increasing towards
Thu morning as organized convection approaches from the west.

Max temps on Wednesday will once again be in that 85 to 90 degree range
inland.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

A warm humid air mass will remain in place through Sunday. A
strong cold front is progged to cross the forecast area...likely
Sunday and Monday...although timing uncertain. This will bring in
a much cooler air mass next week...likely starting Monday. Beyond
Monday a good deal of uncertainty in how things evolve with ECMWF
drying things out...GFS spinning up a frontal low near the coast
and keeping wetter, rainier weather across the area for longer.
Plenty of time to sort that part of the forecast out...still 7+
days out.

Will see increasing rain chances Thursday as a high amplitude
short wave trough crosses W TX then lifts NE across OK...KS. This
feature will provide lift and increasing coverage of
rain...especially over western portions of the forecast area on
Thursday. Upper flow becomes more uniform SW Friday and Saturday
with continued rain chances given warm moist flow off the Gulf but
coverage not quite as high as Thursday.

Still come timing differences but at this point strong cold front
progged to cross the region from NW to SE Sunday night into
Monday...likely accompanied by showers and thunderstorms along the
front...and potential for post frontal rain as well depending on
how quickly front pushes offshore. As mentioned above...ECMWF
would dry us out fairly quickly while GFS would keep things
rainy and unsettled well into next week. Would lean toward the
more progressive ECMWF but too soon to be confident with either
scenario.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Breezy southeast winds will continue through the aft. Isolated
SHRA are possible near CLL this aft, but coverage is too low to
put in the TAF attm. SCT SHRA are expected areawide by mid
morning tomorrow, breezy SE winds are also expected again
tomorrow. Could see areas of MVFR ceilings late tonight and into
early tomorrow, especially for western areas.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through
Thursday with strong pressure gradient on SW flank of high
pressure system centered over the Carolinas. Seas will be mainly in
the 4 to 8 foot range during this period. As a result expect
periods of small craft advisory conditions through this period
most zones. The surface pressure gradient and associated surface
winds decreases some on Thursday through Saturday but will still
see moderate onshore flow...near the SCEC ranges. The daily risk
of showers and thunderstorms will increase through Thursday. Seas,
winds, and rain chances will gradually decrease by Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 87 72 84 / 10 30 50 80
Houston (IAH) 72 85 73 85 / 10 50 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 74 82 / 20 50 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-350-370-
375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Reilly

[Ptarmigan]

We'll get some rain with the Halloween FROPA. Potential frost or freeze after that front.

If that forecast panned out, that would be one of the coldest Halloweens on record. The coldest Halloween recorded in Houston was in 1993.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane and about to make landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0248.shtml

Code: Select all

496 
WTPZ33 KNHC 250248
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES 
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Otis is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through for the next day or so, with landfall
forecast overnight or early on Wednesday in southern Mexico.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  Otis is a 
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  
Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall, 
and rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of 
Mexico. Otis will likely dissipate over southern Mexico on 
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and early Wednesday, with 
extremely destructive winds near the core.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning 
areas soon, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas 
through Wednesday.  Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise 
buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground 
level.

STORM SURGE:  A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to
produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca.  This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$

[Stratton20]

Im thinking highs in the 40’s seems like a good bet for many, im confident in overrunning precipitation behind the front at east for a couple of days, temps should generally stay well above freezing so i don’t expect any frozen precipitation here locally or in any of se texas, but cant rule out some isolated sleet reports though given the cold airmass coming, and I still think global models are a touch too warm with the front
If this setup was in december or later, we would be talking about a pretty big winter storm across the state

[DoctorMu]

We'll get some rain with the Halloween FROPA. Potential frost or freeze after that front.

If that forecast panned out, that would be one of the coldest Halloweens on record. The coldest Halloween recorded in Houston was in 1993.

I remember that one. We had ice on the back porch here in CLL!

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t look like much rain for us tomorrow. Rain chances may need to be lowered.

[DoctorMu]

Some streamer showers out there. We had about 30 sec of rain.

[jasons2k]

We’ve had a few showers at my office in The Woodlands. Doesn’t look like anything at the house yet though.

[DoctorMu]

About 10 min of heavy rain here and it moved on. Evidently it even rained at home. It's the heaviest rain I've seen since May.

It didn't last long, so maybe 0.2-0.3 in accumulation. Better than nothing. I put down more BioAdvanced fungicide - so far, so good. The Scotts fungicide, like their fertilizer never worked.