June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon update regarding the Bay of Campeche potential...

FINAL...

AS A WHOLE...THE 12Z/18 MODEL CYCLE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASONS
TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PRELIMINARY UPDATE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. REFINED THE SUBTROPICS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS PER
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...OPTING TO EXTEND
A TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[jasons2k]

Everything moving into Houston went poof. What else is new?

[Rip76]

Yep.

My sprinklers are new though...

[weatherguy425]

I know its frustrating to watch models struggle to handle an upcoming patter, especially one that could provide needed rain (especially following a summer like last years), but don't get too up[set guys. Best moisture is still located just to our east, atmosphere will likely destabilize later this afternoon after some of this cloud debris from morning convection thins out. Plus there's always the sea-breeze and outflow boundaries to throw in some extra localized lift. Don't get too upset y'all the next few days should provide a large portion of southeast Texas with at least some rain IMO.Now I'm not so sure about this late week system, but hoping for a weaker ridge and rain.

[srainhoutx]

You 'Debbie Downers' may want to check out Hurricane Central. The Euro is a bit more hopeful regarding rainfall chances with the Western Gulf disturbance.

[jasons2k]

That run is a head scratcher - I can't put any stock into the models yet, even the mighty Euro. What a bizarre set of runs today.

I don't mean to be a full-on Debbie Downer. I do believe between now and Wed/Thu we'll get at least one round of good rains. I would just like to see more than one. It looked so promising this morning only to see the whole area collapse in the center as it got close (while the northern and southern ends of the line held together). I'm just tired of what seems like such a 'fragile' state of everything just to get some rain. It's getting to be like forecasting snow here - everything has to be *perfect* and if just one tiny little parameter goes off, the whole entire forecast collapses. It's not supposed to work that way for rain here along the Upper Texas Coast - it's supposed to rain here 'just because'.

OK - rant over. I feel much better

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth Jason, the HWRF and the GFDL both 'sniffed' a Bay of Campeche low in their runs for 95E at 12Z. Here's hoping we get at least some rain out of this mess. You've had much more than I've seen in my yard over the last 6-7 weeks...

[Rip76]

Which model was that, that kept all of the precip from this wave offshore?

I'm assuming with all of the cloud cover from today we aren't going to hit those temps either.

Signed,
Debbie

[srainhoutx]

HPC Surface Charts are just out. Western Gulf Low it is...

[srainhoutx]

HiRes Rapid Refresh satellite imagery continues to suggest a low pressure center just E of Belize. I suspect we will see an INVEST within the next 24 hours and increased chatter from the NHC regarding some future development once the surface low enters the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf later this week. Be sure to monitor our Hurricane Central area for further discussions and analysis regarding the potential for some Tropical Troubles in the Gulf.

[jasons2k]

HPC Surface Charts are just out. Western Gulf Low it is...

I like it - that's where the Low needs to be.

Now, the $64,000 question - is this reality or just a compromise of FL vs. MX because we're still cluless? Only time will tell, I suppose.

[jasons2k]

Radar looked so encouraging this morning....

It makes no sense to me, other than the fact that the persistent/strong SE flow completely negated a sea breeze. But still...geez...I expected more than this. I guess the rain nazi said "I take just one ingredient away, so no rain for you!"

[weatherguy425]

Guys, today was never supposed to be the most favorable day for convection We were located on the drier, subsident side of the system until recently. Considering that showers continue to fire off the coast and around the bay and race well inland, as well as very high PWATS and the "multi-level" cloud deck all point to an active few days with some potentially heavy rain in spot. Will everyone see a soaking rain? doubt it, but the next few days shouldn't be wasted IMO.

[Ptarmigan]

Guys, today was never supposed to be the most favorable day for convection We were located on the drier, subsident side of the system until recently. Considering that showers continue to fire off the coast and around the bay and race well inland, as well as very high PWATS and the "multi-level" cloud deck all point to an active few days with some potentially heavy rain in spot. Will everyone see a soaking rain? doubt it, but the next few days shouldn't be wasted IMO.

Tuesday and Wednesday looks to have better chance for rain.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 00Z NAM 4km WRF are much 'wetter' tomorrow continuing into Wednesday. We will see.

[weatherguy425]

For what it's worth, the 00Z NAM 4km WRF are much 'wetter' tomorrow continuing into Wednesday. We will see.

Is that an ensemble of the operational NAM? The operational model appears to be much drier, though it continues its prediction of a moist onshore fetch re-establishing by late Thursday with rain looming just offshore.

[gocuse22]

For what it's worth, the 00Z NAM 4km WRF are much 'wetter' tomorrow continuing into Wednesday. We will see.

With the radar trends im seeing right now ...i'd believe it.

Small shower moving into Ft Bend County with another right behind it.

[srainhoutx]

Nice to see some showers on the radar scope this morning. That should continue into tomorrow. Then eyes turn to the broad surface low slowly marching NW from the NW Caribbean.

1009mb low and attending trough will lift into the Yucatan Channel and continue to meander NW into the Gulf. The building ridge this weekend will relax a bit or break down allowing for a broad area of disturbed weather, or monsoonal low to drift to a position near NE Mexico/Deep S Texas. This will be a very slow process and the Euro seems to have a better handle on the synoptic pattern. The GFS is suffering from various convective feedback issues and Corpus Christi gives a great discussion concerning this. The board low pressure system looks to still be around early next week. Marine interests are the biggest concern and my hunch is we will see increased chatter from the NHC and various NWS offices around the Gulf Coastal region due to increasing wind and seas with various pressure related influences coming into play that could have an effect across a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern, so expect changes in the days ahead.

Corpus Christi:

AN INCREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS
ACROSS S TX. WEEKEND CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DAY ASIDE
FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE. RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PAN OUT LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LATENT HEAT
BUNDLING ISSUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE GULF.
ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS S TX. MAIN VARIABLE WILL BE HOW STRONG
MENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES AND IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP S TX OR IF MOISTURE CAN INFILTRATE OUR AREA.

[jasons2k]

I think in the end it will come down to timing. If just meanders or gets trapped under the ridge, there is hope a weakness could develop, allowing it to pull north. But it's way too early to tell. For now, I think Ed has the right idea.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Short term continues to be dominated by a very moist air mass and moderate to high rain chances.



Long term will depend on developments in the Gulf of Mexico late this week.



Weak easterly wave/inverted trough that moved into the upper TX coast yesterday morning continues to stream deep Gulf moisture into the area today. Waves of scattered showers continue to move inland off the NW Gulf and have been favoring the eastern side of the area so far this morning…mainly east of a line from Galveston to Baytown to Lake Livingston. Lake Charles sounding came in with a PW of 1.85 in and Corpus 2.0 in suggesting that the deep moisture over LA yesterday has moved westward into coastal TX today. With convective temperatures in the mid 80’s expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop and move inland throughout the day. Storm motions are on the brisk side and while very heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger cells, the fast storm motions should mitigate any flooding concerns. Another active day looks likely on Wednesday although the activity will likely focus west of I-45 where the best moisture will be found (drier air will be entering the area from the east). Much drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the region.



Long term continues with great uncertainty with respect to building of an upper level ridge of high pressure and formation of some sort of tropical feature in the Gulf of Mexico. Global forecast models have generally come back into decent agreement on bringing the current broad surface trough/weak low in the western Caribbean Sea WNW into the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday and gradually deepening the system into a closed tropical system. Any development is expected to be slow and not likely until this Friday at the earliest. The question then becomes if/when something does development in which direction it may move. Massive high pressure will be building over the central plains by late this week and this will likely produce an east to west steering flow across the Gulf of Mexico suggesting anything over the southern Gulf would likely move toward the WNW or NW. How strong this high is will likely determine how much/if any impacts there will be along the TX coast. For now will follow a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and HPC coordinated NHC features showing a weak broad surface low over the central/western Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.



Tides:

Deepening easterly flow across the northern Gulf on the east side on the weak easterly wave has resulted in some minor water level rises along the coast. Tides are currently running 1-1.5 feet above predicted levels both on the Gulf facing beaches and in the inland bays. Expect these higher than normal tides to continue for the next 24 hours. Development of surface low pressure over the southern Gulf toward the end of the week along with long fetch E winds and building seas may support equally high tides by this weekend.