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I'm not buying the 12z EURO at all...

The problem is these models are basing on a center that has shifted northward since they were initialized. I'd wait for the next runs once a center is clear.

-Steve

I wouldn't be optimistic yet... continue to plan accordingly. It's my opinion that the EURO is a great tropical model, but there's no center YET, from which to initiate upon -- so any model output will be inherently inaccurate. The GFS keeps it west too.. but the Canadian and NAM models put the core of the rain in Brazoria County with a swatch from there thru Sugar Land... it's too early to tell.

For more on the accuracy of the EURO, please read up on "Tropical Storm Debbie". As it sat 150 miles off of Tampa, the Euro had it going west toward Houston and the GFS east toward Jacksonville, FL. The Euro was wrong. Now, each storm and synoptic setup is different, but banking on one model is not always the best course of action.

I'm not trying to switch gears here (off of the Gulf situation), but I'm just curious about something.

Even without this system in the gulf, weren't we supposed to have some pretty heavy rainfall anyway?
I've only received just a bit of rain and that was Saturday morning.

Maybe this weather in the gulf has been disrupting the Northerly flow of moisture off the gulf.
Just found that interesting.

I wouldn't trust the models since the center is north/east of where they are initializing. I expect a right shift.

I've also seen a LOT of named storms over the years that were a lot more disorganized than this.

I'm still banking with a landfall around Matagorda...That would put the nasty part right through Houston.

Rip76 wrote:I'm not trying to switch gears here (off of the Gulf situation), but I'm just curious about something.

Even without this system in the gulf, weren't we supposed to have some pretty heavy rainfall anyway?
I've only received just a bit of rain and that was Saturday morning.

Maybe this weather in the gulf has been disrupting the Northerly flow of moisture off the gulf.
Just found that interesting.

Depends where you live. Some areas saw 7 inches last Saturday and areas closer to me up in NW Harris County between 290 and 249 had heavy rain yesterday.

brooksgarner wrote:I wouldn't be optimistic yet... continue to plan accordingly. It's my opinion that the EURO is a great tropical model, but there's no center YET, from which to initiate upon -- so any model output will be inherently inaccurate. The GFS keeps it west too.. but the Canadian and NAM models put the core of the rain in Brazoria County with a swatch from there thru Sugar Land... it's too early to tell.

For more on the accuracy of the EURO, please read up on "Tropical Storm Debbie". As it sat 150 miles off of Tampa, the Euro had it going west toward Houston and the GFS east toward Jacksonville, FL. The Euro was wrong. Now, each storm and synoptic setup is different, but banking on one model is not always the best course of action.

Amen. Amen. Amen. As I was trying to tell Eric. Why oh why would say that about,. "well It's one model, but it's a very important model and it's seeing what other models are apparently seeing." Post it on Facebook and folks will take it as fact. At the Houston Chronicle, on the back page, it has him listed as a Meteorologist. I ask him about that, never got an answer. I respect his opinion, but until we get a defined center and more information for the model to ingest, this is all conjecture....Rant over. You all can go back to dining on the refreshments..

You're out of Scotch, Tireman.

Also, San Antonio was literally flooded...very severely yesterday with many water rescues near 1-35 that was over the roofs of cars. It doesn't take much with this very tropical airmass to dump 2-4 inches per hour where the heavier storms develop. Also, I think we can put the model watching to bed. We have a developing tropical cyclone a couple of hundred mile to our SE and satellite imagery and data from the Hurricane Hunters is likely sufficient with this type of system. Anyone along and East of where this comes ashore has the potential see a lot of very heavy flooding rainfall with isolated tornadoes closer to the center of circulation near and after landfall.

If Houston ends up getting heavy rain, would it start this evening or during the overnight/early morning hours? We have Astros tickets for tonight's game and don't want a repeat of the Rockets game a few weeks ago when the heavy rain started during the game!

Ok, I will send Katdaddy out for more refreshments... To finish my rant...remember Ike. Remember Wxman 57 saying, " Do not always rely on the models when it was showing a Brownsville hit". Remember him saying, five days before, "this is a Galveston area hit". Just frustrates me we have no defined center. Not everything (information) was ingested into the newest models and folks are saying, well the worst could be over. Be patient. Watch. Look. Learn. Let it percolate.

I must have just been out of the loop yesterday regarding the weather.
Minus the gulf situation of course.

Early model 18z shift a little right.

my bet is Matagorda bay still. I think I'm just gonna leave my chips there and watch the wheel spin until it stops

srainhoutx wrote:Also, San Antonio was literally flooded...very severely yesterday with many water rescues near 1-35 that was over the roofs of cars. It doesn't take much with this very tropical airmass to dump 2-4 inches per hour where the heavier storms develop. Also, I think we can put the model watching to bed. We have a developing tropical cyclone a couple of hundred mile to our SE and satellite imagery and data from the Hurricane Hunters is likely sufficient with this type of system. Anyone along and East of where this comes ashore has the potential see a lot of very heavy flooding rainfall with isolated tornadoes closer to the center of circulation near and after landfall.

well said, we had a couple inches in under an hr just the other day here - models take time to digest info, better to follow NHC, local weather experts, watch satellite or ... bands coming in on radar even

Nice burst of convection near the center suggests 91L may well be on its way to becoming TS Bill.

http://tidesonline.noaa.gov/geographic.html

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/gmap3/ ... ns&region=

if you live near a coastal flood plain, check your station(s)

Looking for advise.....My wife and daughter are in Tomball right now...We live in Orange...Would they be better off trying to get out this evening/tonight after rush hour or waiting until tomorrow around 9:00am to try and head home? Thanks!

snowman65 wrote:Looking for advise.....My wife and daughter are in Tomball right now...We live in Orange...Would they be better off trying to get out this evening/tonight after rush hour or waiting until tomorrow around 9:00am to try and head home? Thanks!

After rush.